JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Iowa holds its spring football game this Saturday, which means most thoughts will turn towards the pigskin. I am looking forward to seeing how 'new look' Iowa's offense will be as well as seeing so many fresh faces on the field.
Still, even though Iowa fandom begins to be engulfed by the shadow of football season, I can't stop thinking about Iowa basketball.
Two years after Gary Barta hired Fran McCaffery, the fan base has been reinvigorated and the hoops conversations are still alive and well on the HawkeyeNation.com message boards.
ESPN released an updated set of rankings for their Top 100 and two Hawkeye commits have moved up; Adam Woodbury went from 41 to 39 and Mike Gesell moved from 80th to 75th.
Indiana is the only Big Ten school to have more than two commits who rank in ESPN's Top 75. Iowa and Michigan have two, although the Wolverines have the 76th rated player as well.
Fans are excited and looking towards next year earlier than they have in six years. I am one of them and here is a look at what I think we may see next year in terms of performance from the returning players plus the newcomers.
Devyn Marble 2011-2012 averages - 11.5p/3.8r/3.6a: Marble's freshman to sophomore transformation was one of the more remarkable I can recall in all of my years watching Iowa basketball. He averaged 5.7p/2.4r/1.3a per game as a wet nosed frosh and more than doubled his point production year to year. While making such statistical improvements isn't entirely uncommon, the way Marble played in doing so is my big takeaway. Seldom have I seen a player gain that much confidence, or swagger, from his freshman to sophomore season when the freshman season was 'OK'.
Granted, Marble didn't arrive at Iowa with huge expectations; he was overlooked coming out of high school, he was small and he was young for his age. In another era of Iowa basketball, it might have been a reach for Iowa to go after Marble at all. All he did last year was prove he belongs on the Big Ten stage and he sets himself up for high expectations heading into the second half of his college career. He doesn't lack for confidence in himself and that's a good thing, because he'll need that swagger these next two years when he will be expected to do big things and other teams will be trying to stop him.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: Marble needs to spend some time in the weight room and add lower body and core strength to his frame. It will help him with balance and body control as he spends a lot of time attacking the basket and will give him a better chance of finishing on the 'and one's'. He also needs to spend a lot of time shooting jump shots this year. While he had a great 7 of 8 three-point shooting barrage in the season's final game at Oregon, he can do more damage in the mid-range pull up game, like his father did. That said, if Marble can become a 37% shooter from beyond the arc on around 100 attempts, it will be a big help to the team. Yes, I realize his season ending percentage was .393, but it was 31% before that final game and he attempted just 55 three's on the year. He deferred to Matt Gatens on the arc this year, which was a good idea but he won't have the luxury of passing up some of those three-point looks next season. Marble attempted 141 free throws last season (second most on the team) and made 72.3%. That's a solid number and he made some clutch free throws in late game situations. Marble also led the Hawkeyes in steals last year with 53 and he should continue to be a solid force on defense.
ROUGH PROJECTION: I think Marble can improve his scoring by 2.5 points per game or more. I'll slot him in for 14/ppg and bump his rebounding totals to 4.5/game. He'll likely play less point next year, which means he should be in the mix for more rebounding opportunities. I suspect his assists per game numbers may go down due to the depth Iowa is adding at the point, although he'll still log some minutes at the position. While he'll be shooting for first team all Big Ten honors as a personal goal, I think a second team nod at the end of the year is certainly within reach.
Aaron White 2011-2012 averages: 11.1p/5.7r: White had one of the more memorable freshman seasons in the last two decades, bringing up memories of the freshman campaign put forth by Jess Settles back in the early 1990's and the sophomore season of Chris Street from the same time period. While White lacks the power game of Settles and Street, he shares a similar relentlessness and scoring ability. Street averaged 10.6p/8.2r his sophomore season and jumped up to 14.5/9.5 through the first 14 games of his junior season before the car accident claimed his life. Settles went for 15.3/7.5 as a freshman and stayed around those points per game as a sophomore and junior. His rebounding total dropped to 6.2/g as a soph and went back to 7.5/g as a junior. I think White has a chance to significantly improve as a rebounder, perhaps even more than as a scorer. He led Iowa with 143 free throw attempts and made just under 70%. He also made just 17 of 61 three point shots (27.9%) this year.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: Like Marble, White needs to spend time in the gym and build up his lower half. Both players will add some upper body strength, but this isn't football and you don't want to see shooters add a lot of bulk to their upper body. But if White can make big gains to his legs and core without sacrificing mobility and quickness, he'll become a much better and more consistent rebounder. I believe he'll become a better free throw shooter next season and perhaps improve his points per game by 1.0 from the line alone. White's outside shot looks good enough to make a considerable leap in his three-point percentage. I think he can become a 35% shooter from beyond the arc. If he attempts the same 61 treys next year and hits 35%, that's another .5/ppg right there. FYI, Jess Settles was a 35.2% shooter from three on his career.
ROUGH PROJECTION: White averaged 11.3p/5.9r per game in Big Ten play, better than his 9.2p/4.8r totals he averaged in in the non-conference. He also averaged 17.5 minutes per game in the non-con and that total jumped up to 27.4 minutes per game in Big Ten play. Should we assume White plays many more minutes per game than that next year? What's his magic number to where more minutes affect his production? 28 to 30 minutes per game may be his sweet spot, especially if he adds more bulk to his lower half. With the way Iowa plays an the type of player White has shown to be, you wan't him at full energizer bunny speed. I think he moves up 1.5/ppg based on improvement at the line and beyond the arc and another 1.0-2.0/ppg in general to get to 14/ppg. However, I think he'll make a bigger jump on the glass as that number will approach 7/rpg.
UP NEXT: Melsahn Basabe & Zach McCabe
Still, even though Iowa fandom begins to be engulfed by the shadow of football season, I can't stop thinking about Iowa basketball.
Two years after Gary Barta hired Fran McCaffery, the fan base has been reinvigorated and the hoops conversations are still alive and well on the HawkeyeNation.com message boards.
ESPN released an updated set of rankings for their Top 100 and two Hawkeye commits have moved up; Adam Woodbury went from 41 to 39 and Mike Gesell moved from 80th to 75th.
Indiana is the only Big Ten school to have more than two commits who rank in ESPN's Top 75. Iowa and Michigan have two, although the Wolverines have the 76th rated player as well.
Fans are excited and looking towards next year earlier than they have in six years. I am one of them and here is a look at what I think we may see next year in terms of performance from the returning players plus the newcomers.
Devyn Marble 2011-2012 averages - 11.5p/3.8r/3.6a: Marble's freshman to sophomore transformation was one of the more remarkable I can recall in all of my years watching Iowa basketball. He averaged 5.7p/2.4r/1.3a per game as a wet nosed frosh and more than doubled his point production year to year. While making such statistical improvements isn't entirely uncommon, the way Marble played in doing so is my big takeaway. Seldom have I seen a player gain that much confidence, or swagger, from his freshman to sophomore season when the freshman season was 'OK'.
Granted, Marble didn't arrive at Iowa with huge expectations; he was overlooked coming out of high school, he was small and he was young for his age. In another era of Iowa basketball, it might have been a reach for Iowa to go after Marble at all. All he did last year was prove he belongs on the Big Ten stage and he sets himself up for high expectations heading into the second half of his college career. He doesn't lack for confidence in himself and that's a good thing, because he'll need that swagger these next two years when he will be expected to do big things and other teams will be trying to stop him.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: Marble needs to spend some time in the weight room and add lower body and core strength to his frame. It will help him with balance and body control as he spends a lot of time attacking the basket and will give him a better chance of finishing on the 'and one's'. He also needs to spend a lot of time shooting jump shots this year. While he had a great 7 of 8 three-point shooting barrage in the season's final game at Oregon, he can do more damage in the mid-range pull up game, like his father did. That said, if Marble can become a 37% shooter from beyond the arc on around 100 attempts, it will be a big help to the team. Yes, I realize his season ending percentage was .393, but it was 31% before that final game and he attempted just 55 three's on the year. He deferred to Matt Gatens on the arc this year, which was a good idea but he won't have the luxury of passing up some of those three-point looks next season. Marble attempted 141 free throws last season (second most on the team) and made 72.3%. That's a solid number and he made some clutch free throws in late game situations. Marble also led the Hawkeyes in steals last year with 53 and he should continue to be a solid force on defense.
ROUGH PROJECTION: I think Marble can improve his scoring by 2.5 points per game or more. I'll slot him in for 14/ppg and bump his rebounding totals to 4.5/game. He'll likely play less point next year, which means he should be in the mix for more rebounding opportunities. I suspect his assists per game numbers may go down due to the depth Iowa is adding at the point, although he'll still log some minutes at the position. While he'll be shooting for first team all Big Ten honors as a personal goal, I think a second team nod at the end of the year is certainly within reach.
Aaron White 2011-2012 averages: 11.1p/5.7r: White had one of the more memorable freshman seasons in the last two decades, bringing up memories of the freshman campaign put forth by Jess Settles back in the early 1990's and the sophomore season of Chris Street from the same time period. While White lacks the power game of Settles and Street, he shares a similar relentlessness and scoring ability. Street averaged 10.6p/8.2r his sophomore season and jumped up to 14.5/9.5 through the first 14 games of his junior season before the car accident claimed his life. Settles went for 15.3/7.5 as a freshman and stayed around those points per game as a sophomore and junior. His rebounding total dropped to 6.2/g as a soph and went back to 7.5/g as a junior. I think White has a chance to significantly improve as a rebounder, perhaps even more than as a scorer. He led Iowa with 143 free throw attempts and made just under 70%. He also made just 17 of 61 three point shots (27.9%) this year.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: Like Marble, White needs to spend time in the gym and build up his lower half. Both players will add some upper body strength, but this isn't football and you don't want to see shooters add a lot of bulk to their upper body. But if White can make big gains to his legs and core without sacrificing mobility and quickness, he'll become a much better and more consistent rebounder. I believe he'll become a better free throw shooter next season and perhaps improve his points per game by 1.0 from the line alone. White's outside shot looks good enough to make a considerable leap in his three-point percentage. I think he can become a 35% shooter from beyond the arc. If he attempts the same 61 treys next year and hits 35%, that's another .5/ppg right there. FYI, Jess Settles was a 35.2% shooter from three on his career.
ROUGH PROJECTION: White averaged 11.3p/5.9r per game in Big Ten play, better than his 9.2p/4.8r totals he averaged in in the non-conference. He also averaged 17.5 minutes per game in the non-con and that total jumped up to 27.4 minutes per game in Big Ten play. Should we assume White plays many more minutes per game than that next year? What's his magic number to where more minutes affect his production? 28 to 30 minutes per game may be his sweet spot, especially if he adds more bulk to his lower half. With the way Iowa plays an the type of player White has shown to be, you wan't him at full energizer bunny speed. I think he moves up 1.5/ppg based on improvement at the line and beyond the arc and another 1.0-2.0/ppg in general to get to 14/ppg. However, I think he'll make a bigger jump on the glass as that number will approach 7/rpg.
UP NEXT: Melsahn Basabe & Zach McCabe
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