Sorry I was talking about our good drive when you said we didn't drive down the field, King got us there. Looking back at the wording, I wasn't clear because I was wrong about our good drive ending at the 5.
HN TV: KF on FG Down 8, Recruiting Policy
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
Sorry I was talking about our good drive when you said we didn't drive down the field, King got us there. Looking back at the wording, I wasn't clear because I was wrong about our good drive ending at the 5.
The right decision is whatever gave us the higher % to win. Getting a touchdown from 4th and goal at the 5 is a lot higher probably than picking up a 1st down on 4th and 5 from the 20 than scoring from the 15. Because of that fact (which is a fact) it lowers the odds of winning by going for it which is bad for your argument. All of what I just said is in no way debatable.
That wasn't an option though
It seemed like that was people's opinion in this thread. Maybe it was just me. I guess it makes me more certain it was a really close decision because I originally thought that the going for it on 4th was easier than it actually was.
Picking up the 1st, then punching it into the endzone, then getting the 2 pt conversion, then getting a stop (which you admit would have been unlikely) then winning in ot (which was probably 50/50 at best, is not way easier than making a short field goal, getting one stop, and scoring a touchdown with 4 downs to get a 1st.
Getting 5 yards and then having 4+ downs to score from the 15 is a higher probability than making a FG, getting a stop and then driving all the way down to score a TD. That's why people have been calling KF out about it
I completely agree. What do we win for getting a tie? Will you just read my last post again with an open mind and you will change your mind? I layed out exactly what it took to WIN the game in both scenarios. All you did in your post was compare what it took to tie the game up with time left in regulation to actually winning the game. A lot of people are making that mistake, not just you.
Dear Rob Howe:
Thank you for this thread. Now we all know what it's like to be married to a woman who has to get in the last word.
Yours eternally, Hawkeye Fanatics
I'll let you get the last word in as soon as your last word is "now I see where my mistake was".
Josh liking this post confirms what I already knew he thought. I remember in 09 when Kirks goal was to play for a tie with time left in regulation, giving no thought as to what actually gave us the best chance to win the game.
We don't win anything going for the tie but it was the best move to try to win the game
So I lay out exactly what it takes to win in both scenarios and you replay by comparing what it takes to win in one scenario to what it takes to tie the game in the other scenario. Not sure why you did that.
Your scenario is less probable than my scenario of tying it and winning in OT in my opinion
blubberhawk
Well-Known Member
We opted for a FG attempt that would have got us to within 5 points. We still needed a touchdown to win under that scenario. Unlikely for a team that hadn't sniffed a TD all day
I think we should have gone for it on 4th and 5. We were deep in their territory and odds were we were not going to get there again. They had outgained us by 200+ yards and the odds of this being our best chance was pretty good. This was played out as Wisconsin drove the ball right down the field after our fg was missed. I believe most fans are disappointed in this decision as it reflects our chicken sh*t attitude as far as aggressively trying to win football games.
I've got no problem with that. Your post earlier showed how flawed your logic is you used to form that opinion tho. If you read that post of mine, factor in everything I said, and still have that opinion, I get it because it's such a close call you can go either way.
I agree with all of this too. The only thing is, the last drive with your back against the wall in a situation where Kirk has no choice but to be aggressive might very well not look like the rest of the game did. I'll say again, every time we went uptempo we moved the ball. We would have been uptempo in a last drive scenario and we would have had 4 downs to get a 1st. Even Kirk would have known that.
Anyone who understands calculating odds at a middle school level understands how bad this post is. It really shows a lot about how little you understand what you're talking about here.
What are you talking about?
When calculating odds, the first thing you need to do is come up with the correct equation. After that, the numbers we assign to everything is debatable. What's not debatable is that my data in the quote I posted gives you the correct equation.
