There's probably a way to solve this problem (or at least estimate it) but you have to take the
This is closer to how the problem is solved. Also, add in the chance that they score the FG, instead of stopping them, which happened in the game. Bottom line if we make that easy FG instead of missing, the Fant TD (overturned) would have been to tie the game (with a 2pt conversion). I think probability wise the two decisions are probably close but to lazy to calculate. Both weren't good.
Interesting point. As large as the odds were stacked against us, we were close to pulling it off. Imagine if we make the field goal, Jewel makes the huge 3rd down tackle he misses, and King gets a big punt return.