HN TV: KF on FG Down 8, Recruiting Policy

[Joshbrown]

The point is which scenario gave Iowa the best chance of winning the football game. You see, that is KF's job as head coach, to put us in the best position to win football games. If you can make a logical argument for why KF made the right decision I'd love to hear it.

My guess:

A) Convert 1st down, score TD, convert 2, win in OT ~ 10% likelihood of winning game

B) Make FG (whoops), get stop, score TD ~ less than 5% chance to win game

 

[Hawk5656]

Our bend but don't break defense is designed to let a team pretty much march down the field until the get in the red zone where we tighten up because we don't have to fear the big play. It puts us in a horrible position when all the other team needs is a field goal to win. Does anyone remember '12 when Purdue went something like 30 yards in 10 seconds to get in field goal range?

You all have been watching Iowa football for the last 18 years. You know damn well if we tie that game up, the only way we get to OT is with an unforced, terrible pass, INT, or with a missed field goal as the clock hit zero. Our soft defense made softer by going prevent stands no chance in that situation.

They probably would have gone down and kicked a FG to win but I've watched Iowa football long enough there was no way we were going to stop them and then drive down and score a TD. Both were low probability options but you can't deny going for it instead of kicking the FG with 5 mins left would have given us the better chance to win.

 

[kicker22]

Not necessarily. Say Iowa scores & gets the two. UW gets the ball with probably 2-4 minutes left and there is a good chance they are looking to drive down the field and get a FG. That's because they have a coach who has the guts to go for the win with a freshman QB. Anyways, under that scenario Iowa could get a stop, interception, or fumble, and get in FG range to win the game.

2-4 minutes. That's easily another 2-3 possessions for Wiscy. Lots of football left.

 

[PCHawk]

And just so everyone knows, my posts here are all about discussing percentages because it's fun. I'm in no way, shape, or form defending Kirk. For me to defend Kirk, I would have to think he had an even somewhat competent thought process when making his decision. We all know that wasn't the case. I'm sure all he was thinking about was where an olineman's hands were on that 3rd down play.

 

[PCHawk]

They probably would have gone down and kicked a FG to win but I've watched Iowa football long enough there was no way we were going to stop them and then drive down and score a TD. Both were low probability options but you can't deny going for it instead of kicking the FG with 5 mins left would have given us the better chance to win.

We might stop them in that situation because they are being less agressive in that situation. We might score because we have 4 downs instead of 3. We were good in hurry up all day and we just drove down to the 5. Just like at MSU in 09, things can change when you're in a must score situation.

 

[Joshbrown]

Kicking the FG at that point was the wrong move. Even the big KF defenders on here can see that.

 

[Hawk5656]

We might stop them in that situation because they are being less agressive in that situation. We might score because we have 4 downs instead of 3. We were good in hurry up all day and we just drove down to the 5. Just like at MSU in 09, things can change when you're in a must score situation.

We didn't just drive down to the 5 King got us down there on his kick return. No way we were going to stop them and drive the length of the field and score a TD. I've watched enough Iowa football to know that wasn't going to happen. I agree we probably would have given up a game winning FG but at least we would have had a better chance of winning going for it on 4th and 5

 

[NikeHawk21]

At least I like how you think here. Way better than "kirk sucks so he must be wrong here".

I think your numbers are pretty decent except one thing. If we tie it up, we put Wisconsin in a position to want to score. Against an Iowa D who can't even slow NDSU down a tiny bit in that situation? Or any other offense in the Ferentz "already soft defense but sharman soft while in prevent" era. The fact that they would have marched right down the field in a tie game has to lower your 10% odds.

There is a lot to be said for putting the opposing offense in a position to want to score vs putting them in a position to feel fairly comfortable and want to bleed clock. With all that I just said, I think that closes your 10% vs 5% gap quite a bit. Which means my argument that it was a close call either way is right.

The stupid thing is, Ferentz didn't use the logic I used to make his decision. OSU in '09 proves that. He didn't factor in the odds of having to actually win the game in OT one bit there. Just the simple odds of scoring in regulation vs the odds of making it to OT if he kneels. Here he simply chose the conservative option like he always does, giving no thought in what actually gives him the best chance. I just think in this situation it didn't really matter which one he chose.

I agree the most frustrating thing is it doesn't appear KF uses the right logic most of the time.

Here are some other things to keep in mind.
-UW is on there back up place kicker.
-As I said earlier, although unlikely, in scenario A it is possible for Iowa to win the game in regulation as well. Who knows maybe a freshman QB makes a mistake trying to get in FG range, instead of handing the ball off and trying to run out the clock following the FG.

 

[theboat]

I think some are mixing up drives. 14-6, 4th and 5 was on the 20 after driving from the other 20. King had big return on last drive that Iowa got closer and kicked FG to make it 17-9

 

[PCHawk]

I think some are mixing up drives. 14-6, 4th and 5 was on the 20 after driving from the other 20. King had big return on last drive that Iowa got closer and kicked FG to make it 17-9

I remembered 5656 was wrong on King but didn't remember we were at the 20 on the 4th and 5. That makes Kirks decision even better because now a 1st down doesn't even guarantee a touchdown.

 

[Joshbrown]

And just so everyone knows, my posts here are all about discussing percentages because I like to argue for the sake of arguing, it's fun.

What a weird definition of fun.

 

[PCHawk]

I agree the most frustrating thing is it doesn't appear KF uses the right logic most of the time.

Here are some other things to keep in mind.
-UW is on there back up place kicker.
-As I said earlier, although unlikely, in scenario A it is possible for Iowa to win the game in regulation as well. Who knows maybe a freshman QB makes a mistake trying to get in FG range, instead of handing the ball off and trying to run out the clock following the FG.

The backup place kicker has to be factored in. Although we all know y grandma could put it thru the uprights with her left foot if it's to beat Iowa.

 

[Joshbrown]

And just so everyone knows, my posts here are all about discussing percentages because it's fun. I'm in no way, shape, or form defending Kirk. For me to defend Kirk, I would have to think he had an even somewhat competent thought process when making his decision. We all know that wasn't the case. I'm sure all he was thinking about was where an olineman's hands were on that 3rd down play.

Apology accepted.

 

[hwk23]

I think some are mixing up drives. 14-6, 4th and 5 was on the 20 after driving from the other 20. King had big return on last drive that Iowa got closer and kicked FG to make it 17-9

Yeah, on the 4th & 5 we missed the FG in question. If we had made the easy FG that Fant catch would have been to tie the game (with a two point conversion). Still don't really see how they overturned the Fant TD.

 

[PCHawk]

What a weird definition of fun.

That wasn't meant to explain the definition of fun to everyone. It was simply me telling people that I enjoyed it.

 

[Joshbrown]

There are a very small number of board members who like to double-down when they are wrong. The one's who do remind me of Cirk. An ego that writes checks their talent can't cash. (unless Barta is your sugar-daddy)

 

[PCHawk]

A white flag without admitting it's a white flag.

I waved the white flag on defending Kirks decision making 15 years ago.

 

[Hawk5656]

I remembered 5656 was wrong on King but didn't remember we were at the 20 on the 4th and 5. That makes Kirks decision even better because now a 1st down doesn't even guarantee a touchdown.

I wasn't wrong, we didn't drive to the 5 like you said. King took a return and we kicked a FG down from the 7 yard line if I remember correctly. We drove to the 20 and made the mistake of kicking a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 5

 

[Hawk5656]

I remembered 5656 was wrong on King but didn't remember we were at the 20 on the 4th and 5. That makes Kirks decision even better because now a 1st down doesn't even guarantee a touchdown.

We didn't need a TD to make the right decision, we just needed 5 yards and give us a new set of down to try to score

 

[PCHawk]

There are a very small number of board members who like to double-down when they are wrong. The one's who do remind me of Cirk. An ego that rights checks their talent can't cash. (unless Barta is your sugar-daddy)

What do you disagree with? I'm almost positive you are comparing the one option that gets us a win vs the other option that gets us to overtime. There are no extra credit points for getting to OT.