Hawkeye11en1
Well-Known Member
9-3 with losses against Michigan, Nebby, and NW.
--HN.com 2011 Iowa Season Prediction--
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
LMAO! Way to go out on a limb. You forgot 6-6.
I thought about it. No, it's just we have no idea what the defensive front is going to be like. We know what the LBs and DBs are going to give us.
I believe as the DL goes, so goes Iowa.
Since we don't know there is no possible way to accurately project a W-L record. If you forced me down to a specific record it would push to 9-3 or 10-2 with the only for sure loss I see is Nebraska (oh how much that pains me to say)
Hawkeye11en1
Well-Known Member
That's why it's called a prediction. There IS no possible way to know. We are guessing.
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One way to look at it is that OSU didn't blitz that much so he wasn't under as much pressure. The other way to look at it is that he was great at finding holes/small windows in what was known as a damn good defense. I think the MN game film will certainly give him plenty to learn from and he is smart enough to learn and talented enough to make the D pay for blitzing. He'll also have a much more punishing runner that will hopefully get going early in most games to make things come along easier.
ShadasRevenge
Well-Known Member
I'm failing to see why people are so enamored with Michigan. They're going to try to install a pro-style offense with players recruited to run the spread. They still don't have Michigan-type talent on defense.
Iowa is much more likely to lose to NW than they are to Michigan. Michigan may have scored 56 points against Iowa in the last two games, but they've given up 68.
Iowa is much more likely to lose to NW than they are to Michigan. Michigan may have scored 56 points against Iowa in the last two games, but they've given up 68.
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FalseMirage
Well-Known Member
It's under the radar time...9-3 or 10-2.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I just see Michigan as being the offense that has had the most success scoring points against Iowa the last two years and iowa's defense being a big question. An I think michigan's d is going to be better. They can't be worse
HaydenHawk56
Well-Known Member
I think also looking at Michigan, if they go back to more of their traditional look, I think that also plays into our favor. True, Michigan in the past more often than not got the best of us, but if Michigan goes back to more of a power football look/pro style attack, it is that look that our defenses under Parker have done well against. The spread teams we have had our struggles.
Michigan may be better, but I can't count Michigan as a loss until I see it happen, or Iowa is really struggling on the season.
Michigan may be better, but I can't count Michigan as a loss until I see it happen, or Iowa is really struggling on the season.
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JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I do have a hard time believing they are going to try to put the toothpaste back in the tube as it relates to Denard Robinson and his skill set. While I think they want to get more traditional, I suspect we'll still see some single wing stuff. If they try to make Robinson a guy that stays in the pocket most of the snaps, that's a fail because he's an average passer at best, and if they are in a system that doesn't threaten the edges with Robinson on throw/run looks, the defense doesn't have to be honest.
Raziel
Well-Known Member
11-2 Big Ten champions. July 2011 feels a little bit like July of 2002 to me.
Iowa is coming into the season with an offensive line that should be phenomenal, a RB that looks All Big Ten caliber, a great 1/2 punch at WR, & a QB who has shown flashes of greatness in the past (*cough* Brad Banks *cough*). Oh, and Iowa has a number of questions on defense this year - the interesting thing that people tend to forget about that 02 team was that it was relatively young in a number of key places (most notably, CB).
Every team will be under estimating the hawks this season.....that's when KF teams shine the brightest. They'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Further the schedule lines up for Iowa to make a run this year (Iowa misses 3 of the top 4 teams from the Leaders Division & Plays 3 of the top 4 teams from the Legends Division @ home).
MSU hasn't won in Kinnick since 1989, UM is installing an entirely new coaching staff and will likely regress at least a bit on offense (and their defense is a sieve), NW plays in Kinnick at night (I know, I know - but seriously, can they do it when Kinnick is full of loud drunks? I have to hope not), & UNL lost perhaps the best PK in their schools history, will be starting 3 SO OL, have only one scholarship QB on their roster (and an injury prone guy that can't throw consistently at that), & 6 of their 8 conference games are against Athlon's preseason top 40.
You heard it here first - Iowa Vs. Wisconsin/Illinois in the CCG - Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl.
Iowa is coming into the season with an offensive line that should be phenomenal, a RB that looks All Big Ten caliber, a great 1/2 punch at WR, & a QB who has shown flashes of greatness in the past (*cough* Brad Banks *cough*). Oh, and Iowa has a number of questions on defense this year - the interesting thing that people tend to forget about that 02 team was that it was relatively young in a number of key places (most notably, CB).
Every team will be under estimating the hawks this season.....that's when KF teams shine the brightest. They'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Further the schedule lines up for Iowa to make a run this year (Iowa misses 3 of the top 4 teams from the Leaders Division & Plays 3 of the top 4 teams from the Legends Division @ home).
MSU hasn't won in Kinnick since 1989, UM is installing an entirely new coaching staff and will likely regress at least a bit on offense (and their defense is a sieve), NW plays in Kinnick at night (I know, I know - but seriously, can they do it when Kinnick is full of loud drunks? I have to hope not), & UNL lost perhaps the best PK in their schools history, will be starting 3 SO OL, have only one scholarship QB on their roster (and an injury prone guy that can't throw consistently at that), & 6 of their 8 conference games are against Athlon's preseason top 40.
You heard it here first - Iowa Vs. Wisconsin/Illinois in the CCG - Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl.
Jon,
If we start 7-1 and finish 8-4 we have bigger problems than simply unknowns in July. Another late season collapse is a bad sign for KF's program ... I don't believe we lose 3 out of 4 - especially including coming into a game against Michigan at 7-1....in Kinnick.
We have a schedule that sets up for 10 wins on paper - obvious road blocks at PSU and Nebby. Call me a kool-aid drinker.... and you'd be right.
But its time to win the heartland trophy and the B10 title trophy in a single game....as Iowa takes on the Badgers as Legends Division champs at 11-1.
If we start 7-1 and finish 8-4 we have bigger problems than simply unknowns in July. Another late season collapse is a bad sign for KF's program ... I don't believe we lose 3 out of 4 - especially including coming into a game against Michigan at 7-1....in Kinnick.
We have a schedule that sets up for 10 wins on paper - obvious road blocks at PSU and Nebby. Call me a kool-aid drinker.... and you'd be right.
But its time to win the heartland trophy and the B10 title trophy in a single game....as Iowa takes on the Badgers as Legends Division champs at 11-1.
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
In college football it is very difficult to win without a solid quarterback. Both Iowa State and Penn State have questions at quarterback. Pitt has had troubles with coaches and is coming to Iowa with a new system. Iowa's running back situation is as solid as we have seen in awhile, but Iowa has started with a surplus before and has had nothing but walking wounded by the time the Big Ten season started. At quarterback, reciever and line Iowa looks good with plenty of upside potential. Iowa should be 5-0 hosting Northwestern. Which makes it a tough game for Northwestern.
I would expect Iowa to have trouble with Nebraska and Michigan State. Less so with Michigan. Michigan has too many problems. Given that Michigan has a new coach and a group that has under performed for the last three years, winning in Iowa City shouldn't happen. Iowa should have total control by the third quarter. Expect the Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota games to be over by half time.
I would expect Iowa to have trouble with Nebraska and Michigan State. Less so with Michigan. Michigan has too many problems. Given that Michigan has a new coach and a group that has under performed for the last three years, winning in Iowa City shouldn't happen. Iowa should have total control by the third quarter. Expect the Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota games to be over by half time.
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hawkfan8691
Well-Known Member
Dammit, I was thinking 8-4, 9-3 but you honestly just sold me. This Kool-Aid tastes good too
Raziel
Well-Known Member
Sorry.
The other thing I forgot to mention is that, even when Iowa has bad defenses by Iowa standards (05, 06, & 07), Iowa still only gives up about 20PPG (including OOC games - the numbers below include only conference games) - that is actually pretty darn good considering that most defenses will give up at least 5 more points per game on average than that in what they would consider a "bad" year.
So even if this years Iowa team approaches that "bad" level of defense and gives up 20PPG, the key is that I think this season, Iowa has the offense to still outscore the opponent - in most years, we are confident about Iowa's D and less confident about the O - this year it is reversed.
Fun little stat: do you know which Iowa team this past decade gave up the most PPG in conference play? Answer: 2002. If you averaged the defensive PA in conference play since 2001, the seasons would break down like this:
1. 2004 (15.62)
2. 2008 (16.25)
3. 2010 (18.62)
4. 2009 (18.75 - This number is a bit skewed due to the number Stanzi Six's in 09)
5. 2003 (20)
6. 2005 (20.6)
7. 2007 (22.38)
8. 2001 (25.75)
9. 2006 (25.75)
10. 2000 (26.25)
11. 2002 (28.62)
Notice that five of Iowa's six best seasons of the past decade coincide with the top five teams on this list - the one interesting exception is the 02 team - which had a hell of an offense and a schedule where their O could outscore anyone they played.
I kind of get that feeling for this years Iowa team. Also, I think people tend to forget how consistent Iowa's defense is, even in the "down" defensive years. Basically, I don't think people yet realize how good this Iowa offense is going to be, and I think people are strongly over estimating Iowa's defensive losses - if there is one thing that Iowa has proven over the years, it is that Iowa can reload on defense.
MNHawkeyeFreak
Well-Known Member
Okay okay. It could be the three cups of French roast talkin' this morning but here's a prediction from a girl with limited football knowledge but lots of enthusiasm for the Hawks. I say the spirit of number 16 will take over the QB and he'll have the best year eva! We will win our division for the Big Ben championship and go on to play LSU in the national championship. Woooooohoooooooooo!!!!!!! Go Hawks!!!
I went along with Jon last year and said I'd never do that again!!
I went along with Jon last year and said I'd never do that again!!
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
How are you getting 28.62 points against average for Iowa in B10 play for 2002?
I come up with 16.25
I come up with 16.25
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Raziel -
I like your enthusiasm but one huge difference with comparing the 2002 team & the 2011 team is that Iowa has now had a decade of success, for the most part, & have been to BCS games & winning high profile Jan. 1 & after games. They are now on the radar & are a highlight on most teams schedule at the beginning of the season.
Also, we hear it all the time, paraphrase - "It is known what Iowa is going to run. They don't change much but what they do they do a great job". Pretty much teams now know what KF, Norm & Iowa runs on an annual basis. There still might have been an unkn in 2002 which was relatively still early in KF career at Iowa. The end of the 2002-03 season put Iowa on the map. So, I guess my point is that teams viewed that team different prior to the start of the 2002 season compared to how they view them now, even though, Iowa is "supposed" to have a rebuilding year in 2011. Iowa is still a tough out in most opponents eyes.
I like your enthusiasm but one huge difference with comparing the 2002 team & the 2011 team is that Iowa has now had a decade of success, for the most part, & have been to BCS games & winning high profile Jan. 1 & after games. They are now on the radar & are a highlight on most teams schedule at the beginning of the season.
Also, we hear it all the time, paraphrase - "It is known what Iowa is going to run. They don't change much but what they do they do a great job". Pretty much teams now know what KF, Norm & Iowa runs on an annual basis. There still might have been an unkn in 2002 which was relatively still early in KF career at Iowa. The end of the 2002-03 season put Iowa on the map. So, I guess my point is that teams viewed that team different prior to the start of the 2002 season compared to how they view them now, even though, Iowa is "supposed" to have a rebuilding year in 2011. Iowa is still a tough out in most opponents eyes.
PatrickAdamovicz
Well-Known Member
Yeah, its 16.25. With that said, I understand his thinking. That defense had a lot of unknowns and played relatively well. I know they struggled against the pass, but I chalked some of that up to the offense getting out to sizable leads and Iowa going into a somewhat prevent defense.
I said 9-3 and that is being pessimistic. I think if we go 4-0 early and don't lose early we will be 10-2. I don't think Penn State will beat us no Royster, less than stellar QB play they will not score many points and that is because I think our D does not have as many questions as mentioned. We are moving experienced players to fill in holes in the secondary our D line is returning basically two starters and LB play will be better than last year and that cost us several games.
As for Nebraska I like the addition but there is going to be an adjustment period and I am not talking about games, more like a season ot two. They need a bigger D and better play at LB and with their small (in number) recruiting class this year, it may take a couple years to get the right personelle. They beat two good teams last year and split with a 6-6 Washington team. If they lose any of the games I have them winning, they may not make a bowl.
As for Nebraska I like the addition but there is going to be an adjustment period and I am not talking about games, more like a season ot two. They need a bigger D and better play at LB and with their small (in number) recruiting class this year, it may take a couple years to get the right personelle. They beat two good teams last year and split with a 6-6 Washington team. If they lose any of the games I have them winning, they may not make a bowl.
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