JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
July is here, and this is the month where we go on the record with not only Iowa's game by game season prediction, but we'll preview each of Iowa's opponents and make predictions for each and every team in the Big Ten conference.
So in essence, it's a month long Iowa and Big Ten football preview here at HawkeyeNation.com.
We'll lead things off with our game by game prediction for Iowa's 2011 football season. I had toyed with the thought of picking the Hawks last, but by that time you would have been able to piece the prediction together based upon my game by game predictions for the other 12 teams in the Big Ten, so let's just jump in with the Hawkeyes.
September 3rd, Tennessee Tech at Iowa: Tennessee Tech is an FCS squad with a lot of experience on the roster. They will have nearly 25 seniors plus another 25 juniors on the roster. They boast one of the best receivers in the FCS level, Tim Benford, who has more than 2000 career receiving yards. Coach Watson Brown said this prior to the start of spring ball this past March: "We want to be the fastest 60 minutes in football. Our style will change and we'll pick up the tempo. We want to play faster, improve our team speed, react quicker. We want to make the games longer. We think one of our strengths will be our depth, and we want to take advantage of that." Here is a link to their spring game report. A veteran FCS club will be a nice test for Iowa right out of the gate; nice in that you had better still win the game, but salty enough for the game film to be a benefit heading into week two. This team beat Eastern Illinois last year, but surrendered over 100 points combined against Arkansas and TCU. IOWA 41, Tech 17
September 10th, Iowa at Iowa State: Iowa is an early 7.5 point favorite in this game, and you can see some of the Iowa-ISU line history at this link. There's no nice way for me to put this, so I will just say it; I can't stand this game when it's at Jack Trice. I get pretty amped up due to what this game means when you are an Iowa fan living in central Iowa. Losing this game creates multiple smack talk opportunities due to my line of work...then again, that's part of the fun in it, too. Iowa State has a LOT of questions to answer on offense, things we'll take a deeper look at in the coming weeks. Namely, they have to settle on a new quarterback (Steele Jantz didn't set the world on fire in the spring and Jerome Tiller hasn't proven to be anything other than an average passer, at best). They have to replace running back Alexander Robinson. They have a receiving corps with talent, but one that hasn't stepped it up to the next level. They are solid in the secondary and at linebacker on defense, but defensive line continues to be a question mark for them. ISU has not scored a touchdown against Iowa's first or second team defense since 2006, but they will this year. IOWA 24, Iowa State 14
September 17th, Pittsburgh at Iowa: Wanny is gone and so is the guy they hired to replace him. Pitt will shift to a 3-4 front, but it's going to be a 'multiple' look defense, where they can shift to a 3-3-5 or a 4-2-5 with the same personnel group...or at least that is what they are hoping to do. They lose key offensive players in RB Dion Lewis (2800 yds last two years) and WR Jon Baldwin (822 yards) but QB Tino Sunseri is back for the Panthers and RB Ray Graham is a home run hitter, but unproven between the tackles. They are also ushering in a new offensive system, moving away from the traditional pro-style attack and going to something more pass happy. Phil Steele picks them to tie for the Big East title, for what that's worth. I am glad this game is at home following the Cy-Hawk series, as a let down factor is always a possibility. The Kinnick faithful will be there to carry the Hawks against one of the better defenses they will face this year. Iowa 24, Pitt 20.
September 24th, Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa: LA-M has posted just two .500 or better seasons since 2001 and they were smoked 135-10 last year by Arkansas, LSU and Auburn. However, this team returns 19 starters including quarterback Kolton Browning, who threw for over 2500 yards last year. They were not a great rushing team in 2010 and they run a spread, up-tempo offense. They were 101 out of 120 in points scored last year and 97th in points allowed, but all of their stats are a bit slanted due to playing three FBS heavyweights. They will play a tough schedule again this year; they open at Florida State then are on the road at TCU the week before they come to Iowa City. Iowa 34, LA-M 17
October 1st, BYE
October 8th, Iowa at Penn State: Iowa has beaten Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions seven out of the last eight meetings. Penn State still has as quarterback quandary (Bolden or McGloin), they have questions on the offensive line for the third season in a row, they also have questions on their defensive line, too. ESPN tabbed both lines as 8th best in the Big Ten during their unit rankings in June. All that being said, Iowa has quite a few questions on defense, too and this is one of the toughest road environments in all of college football. While James Vandenberg has played at The Shoe, which will help, this is going to be a tough out and at some point, Iowa's dominance over Penn State has to taper off, doesn't it? Penn State is at Indiana the week before playing Iowa. Penn State 24, Iowa 17.
September 15th, Northwestern at Iowa: How about that for a back to back? Games against teams where one program has dominated the other in recent years. Northwestern has beaten Iowa in five of their last six meetings and that's too darn many. QB Dan Persa returns as do eight other offensive starters, including leading receiver Jeremy Ebert. They return seven starters from a defense that wasn't very good last year (other than against Iowa). They don't have much of a running game and they'll need one to take some pressure off of Persa. However, Persa might be the perfect fit for this offense; he's simply a witch. He completed more than 75% of his passes last year and he can pick up the killer 3rd and 6 with his feet, too. That being said, the law of averages has to kick in at some point and I just don't want to contemplate another loss at home to the Wildcats. They host Michigan the week before playing Iowa. IOWA 30, Northwestern 27 .
October 22nd, Indiana at Iowa: It's a new coaching regime for the Hoosiers and they have lost a great talent in quarterback Ben Chappell (3300 yds, 25 touchdowns). The Hoosiers were hit hard by running back injuries last year, but Darius Willis should be back in form. They have a great receiver back as well in Damario Belcher. They lose both defensive ends and their top linebacker, plus their secondary was not good in 2010. They are putting in a new offensive system (bye-bye, pistol) and this is a great opponent to schedule for Homecoming. IOWA 41, Indiana 20
October 29th, Iowa at Minnesota: Iowa fans want to forget last year's game at Minnesota. It was cold, and according to Adrian Clayborn right after the contest, the Hawks had 'lost their will to win.' I would guess the coaching staff will remind them of a lot of things along those lines entering this game. It's not going to be as cold, as the game will be in late October. MarQueis Gray is the likely QB, and he is a very good athlete, playing receiver for the Golden Gophers the past two years. Deleon Eskridge returns at running back but they return just two offensive line starters. Six of the front seven return on defense and that is certainly a plus for coach Jerry Kill in his first year. That being said, the bacon returns to Iowa City. Minnesota hosts Nebraska the week before playing Iowa. IOWA 27, Minnesota 20
November 5th, Michigan at Iowa: The Wolverines have scored 56 points against Iowa the past two years, more than any other Big Ten team. They return a boat load of starters, including quarterback Denard Robinson. While they want to move towards a West Coast attack, with more emphasis on man on man blocking to help restore a semblance of a power running game, it's going to be very interesting to see how they use Robinson. I cannot imagine not giving him the chance to run with the ball, given his record setting 2010 (more rushing yards than any QB in FBS history.) In week two last year, Robinson had more yards of total offense than every one of the Top 25 teams put up, total. I think their defense will be improved with the addition of DC Greg Mattison. Then again, a dead cat bounces at least a little bit when you drop it from 10 feet. I think the Wolverines get the Hawks in 2011. Michigan 34, Iowa 24
November 12th, Michigan State at Iowa: Believe it or not, this game will carry a bit of a grudge with it. No, I am not talking about Michigan State's desire to represent better than they did one year ago when it was 30-0 Iowa at halftime, although you can expect them to remember that. The Iowa staff will carry a chip on their shoulder for this one. 2011 commit Darian Cooper had made up his mind to come to Iowa, just before signing day. That's when someone on the MSU staff told Cooper that he might want to reconsider that, as news was going to break that Friday related to Rhabdo that would ultimately lead to the dismissal of some Iowa staff members, or something very near that sort of a tale. Cooper wasn't buying, he signed with Iowa on that Wednesday and two days later, on that 'fateful Friday', all was fine in Iowa City. Expect a little extra pep in the step for this one. Michigan State hosts Minnesota the week before playing Iowa. Iowa 24, MSU 20.
November 19th, Iowa at Purdue: I just have a sneaking hunch that Purdue is going to be a salty team this year. They return four starters on the OL and great numbers in their back seven. The loss of Ryan Kerrigan is going to hurt, but that's about it of note on that side of the ball. They are undecided at quarterback although Rob Henry is a nice dual threat. Getting Ralph Bolden back at RB (knee) will be a boost if he can be as dangerous as he was before his injuries. I just don't like this game as well as where it's played. The Boilermakers host Ohio State the week before playing Iowa. Purdue 27, Iowa 17.
November 26th, Iowa at Nebraska: I sure wish this game would be played at Kinnick as we kick off this rivalry, but that will have to wait a year. By this point in the season, Taylor Martinez will have likely caused Bo Pelini's head to explode and the Huskers will have found another option at quarterback. Their defense is the problem, however, as Jared Crick anchors one of the best units in the nation. Phil Steele ranks their DL #11, LB #9 and Secondary #15 in his unit rankings. Nebraska is at Michigan the week before playing Iowa and at Penn State the week before that, so you never know. Nebraska 24, Iowa 17.
That all adds up to an 8-4 record. I will be making game by game predictions for each Big Ten team, which will then allow me to make Big Ten bowl projections as the month of July rolls along.
I can see Iowa with a best case record of 10-2, and a worst case record of 6-6. It is shaping up to be one of those years in Iowa City...the Hawks are off the national radar and people are betting against them. Several unknowns on a defense that has been so consistent during the Ferentz/Parker era. I think this offense is going to be capable of some damage, with one of the best offensive lines in the nation.
Here are the points per game and points allowed averages based upon my score projections:
Iowa Points Scored: 320 (26.6)
Iowa Points Against: 264 (22.0)
After looking at how those totals turned out, the 22 points per game allowed by an Iowa defense would be the worst such number since 2000. Iowa was rebuilding on the defensive line in 2005, replacing all four starters with a pair of sophomore ends and a pair of freshman tackles and still allowed just 20.0 per game. In 2006, Iowa allowed an average of 20.7. I don't feel comfortable with that high of an average 'prediction' but I didn't go into this with any number in mind and then attempting to reverse engineer it.
On the offensive side of things, I am surprised it turned out that low. I think this team could average 30 points per game due to the strength of the offensive line, a possible dynamic 1-2 punch at receiver, the possible emergence of CJ Fiedorowicz as an offensive weapon at TE and Marcus Coker picking up where he left off last year. James Vandenberg is the big question mark here; if he lives up to my expectations, then Iowa will score more than 26 per game.
OK, now that I am on the record, it's your turn. Make your picks below and we'll revisit this thread on November 27th.
