JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I've delayed this long enough. Time to dive in and see what the cracked crystal ball says for this year.
Before we do that, here is an accountability exercise; how have I done in other years attempting to predict Iowa's season record?
I've compiled all of my Iowa football preseason predictions dating back to the 2001 Iowa football season. I launched HawkeyeNation.com on April 12th of 2001, so I figured that would be a good place to start and while I am sure I made a prediction in 2000, as I was writing for SuperHawkeye.com at the time, I cannot locate it and that first version of Rivals.com went down in a blaze of glory. Here are my annual preseason picks, with the final regular season record and how close I came to hitting the mark.
2012 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by four, 4-8)
2011 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by one, 7-5)
2010 Game by Game Prediction: 12-0 (off by five, 7-5)
2009 Game by Game Prediction: 10-2 (direct hit)
Yeah, I remember the 2010 prediction..the year most everyone I know picked Iowa to finish no worse than 10-2, with several 11-1 predictions. The year that several publications ranked them inside the Top 10. The year they were favored in every game (in preseason lines). It was a big miss.
Here are my predictions for earlier seasons, links not included as they are to premium articles I wrote for Scout.com or Rivals.com, or as published in Hawkeye Nation Magazine:
2008: 8-4 (direct hit)
2007: 9-3 (off by three, 6-6)
2006: 11-1 (off by five, 6-6)
2005: 9-2 (off by two, 7-4)
2004: 8-3 (off by one, 9-2)
2003: 8-4 (off by one, 9-3)
2002: 8-4 (off by three, 11-1)
2001: 7-4 (off by one, 6-5)
In my opinion, getting to within one win of the actual final total is something I am going to count as successful prediction. Anything outside of that, in just an 11 or 12 game regular season, is not something I am going to tell my kids about one day. Also, the 2006 prediction was pretty rough and that remains the team where Kirk Ferentz believes the low point of his era was hit.
12 seasons: 6 years being within one win of the actual total (including two direct hits) and 6 years being outside of that mark. One of those five was off by two, with two of those years being off by a staggering five games, not to mention last year's miss by four games. I take some solace in the fact that everyone missed the mark by a wide berth in 2010 and 20112.
So after 12 years I have gotten it right 50 percent of the time, but I wouldn't call it a coin flip proposition since there is the possibility of going 0-12 and no element of chance as you get with a coin flip. Still, take this for what it's worth; my best effort to guess what Iowa's football season will be like.
Northern Illinois: It's a home game against a MAC team coming off an Orange Bowl bid with a Heisman Hopeful at quarterback (Jordan Lynch), one who can do damage with his arms and legs. They don't have the dynamic defensive frontline they had one year ago and I think that is going to make the difference, but Phil Steele is picking them to win the MAC, again. WIN
Missouri State: Terry Allen is their head coach and has an Iowa connection. Neat. Iowa has no business losing to Missouri State and I hope this game isn't close: WIN
at Iowa State: Iowa at Iowa State in December could be a game between Top 25 ranked basketball teams, or close to it. The game at Ames in week three of Iowa's football season? Not so much. I won't go as far as to call it a pillow fight, but I would wager that the loser of this game will have a very tough time going bowling. Iowa State's schedule is pretty tough and Iowa's is tougher than last year. One thing I really like for this young Iowa team is the fact they will have two games under their belt before heading to Ames. Iowa State will also be a young team and they have a bye week after their season opener. ISU pundits may say that works to their advantage. No matter who plays quarterback for Iowa in this game, he will be making his first appearance on the road. First time Iowa starters don't fare so well in Ames. LOSS
Western Michigan: Iowa cannot lose to a directional Michigan school at home for the second year in a row. OK, I guess it can, but if it does and Iowa winds up 2-2 heading into Big Ten play for the second year in a row, it's going to be a very, very dicey October. WIN
at Minnesota: This game is played on September 28th, so five games will be in the book before October. Minnesota has been picked to finish 6th in the Legends in most magazines I have seen, but they return 10 starters on offense including a young quarterback who looked good at times last year. Iowa won 31-13 one year ago and I do think the Hawkeyes will have a better offense and defense this year. I think Iowa wins a very close one and perhaps the quarterback who 'gets the win' on the road here will have taken the job by the reigns. WIN
Michigan State: The Spartans visit Kinnick in game six of the season. Iowa's quarterback situation will have hopefully been solidified by now and the young defensive line may be playing with a bit of confidence by now, too. Michigan State does not have that bruising running back we have come to expect, or at least I don't see him on the depth chart right now. Andrew Maxwell should be better at quarterback and the Spartans defense will be good again, but perhaps not as imposing as it has been the past two years. I think we are setting up for another low scoring affair and I give Iowa the nod at home. WIN
MIDPOINT SYNOPSIS: I have Iowa at 5-1 at this point but can easily see a path to 3-3 or even 2-4. Losses to NIU, ISU, Minnesota and MSU would not be a stretch. If Iowa were 2-4 at this point of the year...wait...I don't even want to think about it. They could also be 6-0 at this point of the season. I feel like I know less about this team than I did about last year's team and I missed the mark last year by four games.
What's interesting to me is that the strength of this Iowa team would seem to be it's running game and at times a power running game. The Power I am talking about can be found at tackle for Iowa, as the Hawkeyes will be starting two future pro's. Given their depth at tight end, I think Iowa may use one of them as an H back at times (say Ray Hamilton) along with CJ Fiedorowicz at the traditional tight end position or even spread out wide. I think we will see Damon Bullock and Jordan Canzeri getting the ball in numerous ways; out of the slot or lined up out wide, jet sweeps, etc.
During the spring game, Iowa went uptempo and no huddle. You can still have a power running game out of spread formations and uptempo. But I just have a hard time believing that we are going to see a great deal of that type of offense once we get into the heart of the season.
Iowa has a bye after its sixth game of the year, the home game against Michigan State. We resume the prediction in game seven which is October 19th at Ohio State.
@Ohio State: Ugh. I think this is going to be a beat down. Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten and I don't think it's close. I don't think Urban Meyer is going to be coaching in this league all that long, maybe five years or so before he steps away again, and he isn't the kind of guy who seems to care what people think of him, anyway. So what I am getting at is I think the Buckeyes could hang 50-plus on Iowa. I think they might do that to over half the teams on their schedule this year and if they can get to 60, they'll do that, too. I think they'll need to win in the court of pollster opinion to stave off any competition for the #2 ranking in the nation as it just seems like a collision course between then and Alabama for the title. LOSS
Northwestern: The Cats come to Iowa City with the dangerous Kain Colter under center. I think they might have a more balanced offense this year and they also return running back Venric Mark. I think the preparation for Braxton Miller and Ohio State will carry over to Colter, even though Miller is better. Their defense isn't great and I see this game going either way, but where I gave Iowa the benefit of the doubt last year, it's tougher this time around. LOSS
Wisconsin: This isn't going to make sense to some of you, but I still think Iowa matches up well against a smash-mouth team like Wisconsin. I think the Badgers are a better program right now and probably have a better team, but this game is at home and I think it will go Iowa's way stylistically, where I don't like the matchup for Iowa against Northwestern. Iowa is 4-6 in their last 10 games against Northwestern and 6-4 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. WIN
at Purdue: The Boilermakers beat Iowa in Kinnick last year and return just five starters this year on offense. Still, I am not sold that this Iowa team will be up to snuff on the road just yet. If the defensive line turns out to be a year ahead of schedule, they can win this game. LOSS
BYE
Michigan: This team returns just 12 starters, six on both sides, and loses Denard Robinson. I don't want to say addition by subtraction, but I actually felt Michigan had a glass ceiling with Robinson at quarterback because he just wasn't a good passer. Devin Gardner is a better passer and I think the Wolverines are going to really have it going by the time they get to Iowa City. I look for them to really be something special in 2014 and they will just be showing signs of what is to come on Novemeber 23rd in Iowa City. LOSS
at Nebraska: Iowa is 0-2 in the 'Heroes Game' and despite the close call last year with one of the worst offenses Iowa has put on the field the past three decades and the most challenged Iowa defense since 2000, it was a close game. This year the game is at Nebraska and I think Iowa will be better on both sides of the ball, but I just can't see them winning in Lincoln. LOSS
SYNOPSIS: I went into this thinking 5-7. I've felt that way all winter, spring and summer without really diving in and looking at the schedule too hard. Once I got my hands dirty and dug in, it was hard not to get to 6-6. Do I think Iowa can beat Northwestern and Purdue on the back half? Yes. Do I think they could lose every single game over the last six? I absolutely think that is possible. Former Hawkeye quarterback Chuck Long said this past week that six wins 'would be a great year' for Iowa this season. It's tough to call a 6-6 record a great season, but it's better than 4-8 and not getting the extra bowl practices with a young team.
It's pretty amazing to sit back and think of the W-L spread this team could have. While 2-10 would be staggeringly disappointing, it wouldn't be all that shocking to me. On the other side of things, I can see a road for 9-3 or maybe even 10-2 if the defensive line answers every single question mark in the affirmative, along with the wide receiver crew being something none of us thinks it can be.
Here is a percentage of likihood I would apply to the range of records:
10-2: 1%
9-3: 4%
8-4: 10%
7-5: 15%
6-6: 30%
5-7: 25%
4-8: 10%
3-7: 4%
2-10: 1%
I still feel more comfortable with 5-7 than I do with 6-6, but I try to just go with what comes up as I go game by game without then sitting back and adjusting too much because something didn't fit into my preconceived box.
So there you have it. I hope to be dead on this year or wrong on the downside. There are 10 winnable games out there but Iowa has a three inexperienced quarterbacks and no starts among them. They have one of the least experienced receiving corps of the Ferentz era and a defensive line that has far more questions than answers. Two of the ten games should be automatics for this program (yes, I know they lost to Central Michigan one year ago) so that leaves eight games. I have them 4-4 in those eight games, which seems about right.
What are your thoughts? Post them and your predictions below and we'll come back and look at them after the season is over.
Before we do that, here is an accountability exercise; how have I done in other years attempting to predict Iowa's season record?
I've compiled all of my Iowa football preseason predictions dating back to the 2001 Iowa football season. I launched HawkeyeNation.com on April 12th of 2001, so I figured that would be a good place to start and while I am sure I made a prediction in 2000, as I was writing for SuperHawkeye.com at the time, I cannot locate it and that first version of Rivals.com went down in a blaze of glory. Here are my annual preseason picks, with the final regular season record and how close I came to hitting the mark.
2012 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by four, 4-8)
2011 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by one, 7-5)
2010 Game by Game Prediction: 12-0 (off by five, 7-5)
2009 Game by Game Prediction: 10-2 (direct hit)
Yeah, I remember the 2010 prediction..the year most everyone I know picked Iowa to finish no worse than 10-2, with several 11-1 predictions. The year that several publications ranked them inside the Top 10. The year they were favored in every game (in preseason lines). It was a big miss.
Here are my predictions for earlier seasons, links not included as they are to premium articles I wrote for Scout.com or Rivals.com, or as published in Hawkeye Nation Magazine:
2008: 8-4 (direct hit)
2007: 9-3 (off by three, 6-6)
2006: 11-1 (off by five, 6-6)
2005: 9-2 (off by two, 7-4)
2004: 8-3 (off by one, 9-2)
2003: 8-4 (off by one, 9-3)
2002: 8-4 (off by three, 11-1)
2001: 7-4 (off by one, 6-5)
In my opinion, getting to within one win of the actual final total is something I am going to count as successful prediction. Anything outside of that, in just an 11 or 12 game regular season, is not something I am going to tell my kids about one day. Also, the 2006 prediction was pretty rough and that remains the team where Kirk Ferentz believes the low point of his era was hit.
12 seasons: 6 years being within one win of the actual total (including two direct hits) and 6 years being outside of that mark. One of those five was off by two, with two of those years being off by a staggering five games, not to mention last year's miss by four games. I take some solace in the fact that everyone missed the mark by a wide berth in 2010 and 20112.
So after 12 years I have gotten it right 50 percent of the time, but I wouldn't call it a coin flip proposition since there is the possibility of going 0-12 and no element of chance as you get with a coin flip. Still, take this for what it's worth; my best effort to guess what Iowa's football season will be like.
Northern Illinois: It's a home game against a MAC team coming off an Orange Bowl bid with a Heisman Hopeful at quarterback (Jordan Lynch), one who can do damage with his arms and legs. They don't have the dynamic defensive frontline they had one year ago and I think that is going to make the difference, but Phil Steele is picking them to win the MAC, again. WIN
Missouri State: Terry Allen is their head coach and has an Iowa connection. Neat. Iowa has no business losing to Missouri State and I hope this game isn't close: WIN
at Iowa State: Iowa at Iowa State in December could be a game between Top 25 ranked basketball teams, or close to it. The game at Ames in week three of Iowa's football season? Not so much. I won't go as far as to call it a pillow fight, but I would wager that the loser of this game will have a very tough time going bowling. Iowa State's schedule is pretty tough and Iowa's is tougher than last year. One thing I really like for this young Iowa team is the fact they will have two games under their belt before heading to Ames. Iowa State will also be a young team and they have a bye week after their season opener. ISU pundits may say that works to their advantage. No matter who plays quarterback for Iowa in this game, he will be making his first appearance on the road. First time Iowa starters don't fare so well in Ames. LOSS
Western Michigan: Iowa cannot lose to a directional Michigan school at home for the second year in a row. OK, I guess it can, but if it does and Iowa winds up 2-2 heading into Big Ten play for the second year in a row, it's going to be a very, very dicey October. WIN
at Minnesota: This game is played on September 28th, so five games will be in the book before October. Minnesota has been picked to finish 6th in the Legends in most magazines I have seen, but they return 10 starters on offense including a young quarterback who looked good at times last year. Iowa won 31-13 one year ago and I do think the Hawkeyes will have a better offense and defense this year. I think Iowa wins a very close one and perhaps the quarterback who 'gets the win' on the road here will have taken the job by the reigns. WIN
Michigan State: The Spartans visit Kinnick in game six of the season. Iowa's quarterback situation will have hopefully been solidified by now and the young defensive line may be playing with a bit of confidence by now, too. Michigan State does not have that bruising running back we have come to expect, or at least I don't see him on the depth chart right now. Andrew Maxwell should be better at quarterback and the Spartans defense will be good again, but perhaps not as imposing as it has been the past two years. I think we are setting up for another low scoring affair and I give Iowa the nod at home. WIN
MIDPOINT SYNOPSIS: I have Iowa at 5-1 at this point but can easily see a path to 3-3 or even 2-4. Losses to NIU, ISU, Minnesota and MSU would not be a stretch. If Iowa were 2-4 at this point of the year...wait...I don't even want to think about it. They could also be 6-0 at this point of the season. I feel like I know less about this team than I did about last year's team and I missed the mark last year by four games.
What's interesting to me is that the strength of this Iowa team would seem to be it's running game and at times a power running game. The Power I am talking about can be found at tackle for Iowa, as the Hawkeyes will be starting two future pro's. Given their depth at tight end, I think Iowa may use one of them as an H back at times (say Ray Hamilton) along with CJ Fiedorowicz at the traditional tight end position or even spread out wide. I think we will see Damon Bullock and Jordan Canzeri getting the ball in numerous ways; out of the slot or lined up out wide, jet sweeps, etc.
During the spring game, Iowa went uptempo and no huddle. You can still have a power running game out of spread formations and uptempo. But I just have a hard time believing that we are going to see a great deal of that type of offense once we get into the heart of the season.
Iowa has a bye after its sixth game of the year, the home game against Michigan State. We resume the prediction in game seven which is October 19th at Ohio State.
@Ohio State: Ugh. I think this is going to be a beat down. Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten and I don't think it's close. I don't think Urban Meyer is going to be coaching in this league all that long, maybe five years or so before he steps away again, and he isn't the kind of guy who seems to care what people think of him, anyway. So what I am getting at is I think the Buckeyes could hang 50-plus on Iowa. I think they might do that to over half the teams on their schedule this year and if they can get to 60, they'll do that, too. I think they'll need to win in the court of pollster opinion to stave off any competition for the #2 ranking in the nation as it just seems like a collision course between then and Alabama for the title. LOSS
Northwestern: The Cats come to Iowa City with the dangerous Kain Colter under center. I think they might have a more balanced offense this year and they also return running back Venric Mark. I think the preparation for Braxton Miller and Ohio State will carry over to Colter, even though Miller is better. Their defense isn't great and I see this game going either way, but where I gave Iowa the benefit of the doubt last year, it's tougher this time around. LOSS
Wisconsin: This isn't going to make sense to some of you, but I still think Iowa matches up well against a smash-mouth team like Wisconsin. I think the Badgers are a better program right now and probably have a better team, but this game is at home and I think it will go Iowa's way stylistically, where I don't like the matchup for Iowa against Northwestern. Iowa is 4-6 in their last 10 games against Northwestern and 6-4 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. WIN
at Purdue: The Boilermakers beat Iowa in Kinnick last year and return just five starters this year on offense. Still, I am not sold that this Iowa team will be up to snuff on the road just yet. If the defensive line turns out to be a year ahead of schedule, they can win this game. LOSS
BYE
Michigan: This team returns just 12 starters, six on both sides, and loses Denard Robinson. I don't want to say addition by subtraction, but I actually felt Michigan had a glass ceiling with Robinson at quarterback because he just wasn't a good passer. Devin Gardner is a better passer and I think the Wolverines are going to really have it going by the time they get to Iowa City. I look for them to really be something special in 2014 and they will just be showing signs of what is to come on Novemeber 23rd in Iowa City. LOSS
at Nebraska: Iowa is 0-2 in the 'Heroes Game' and despite the close call last year with one of the worst offenses Iowa has put on the field the past three decades and the most challenged Iowa defense since 2000, it was a close game. This year the game is at Nebraska and I think Iowa will be better on both sides of the ball, but I just can't see them winning in Lincoln. LOSS
SYNOPSIS: I went into this thinking 5-7. I've felt that way all winter, spring and summer without really diving in and looking at the schedule too hard. Once I got my hands dirty and dug in, it was hard not to get to 6-6. Do I think Iowa can beat Northwestern and Purdue on the back half? Yes. Do I think they could lose every single game over the last six? I absolutely think that is possible. Former Hawkeye quarterback Chuck Long said this past week that six wins 'would be a great year' for Iowa this season. It's tough to call a 6-6 record a great season, but it's better than 4-8 and not getting the extra bowl practices with a young team.
It's pretty amazing to sit back and think of the W-L spread this team could have. While 2-10 would be staggeringly disappointing, it wouldn't be all that shocking to me. On the other side of things, I can see a road for 9-3 or maybe even 10-2 if the defensive line answers every single question mark in the affirmative, along with the wide receiver crew being something none of us thinks it can be.
Here is a percentage of likihood I would apply to the range of records:
10-2: 1%
9-3: 4%
8-4: 10%
7-5: 15%
6-6: 30%
5-7: 25%
4-8: 10%
3-7: 4%
2-10: 1%
I still feel more comfortable with 5-7 than I do with 6-6, but I try to just go with what comes up as I go game by game without then sitting back and adjusting too much because something didn't fit into my preconceived box.
So there you have it. I hope to be dead on this year or wrong on the downside. There are 10 winnable games out there but Iowa has a three inexperienced quarterbacks and no starts among them. They have one of the least experienced receiving corps of the Ferentz era and a defensive line that has far more questions than answers. Two of the ten games should be automatics for this program (yes, I know they lost to Central Michigan one year ago) so that leaves eight games. I have them 4-4 in those eight games, which seems about right.
What are your thoughts? Post them and your predictions below and we'll come back and look at them after the season is over.
