hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
Wow. Nice job. Tell us, why would they play 9 B1G games here??
Fake news!
They played at #10 Miami this year!
How many top-10 non-cons has KF played?
Hey Deace.....
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Fake news!
They played at #10 Miami this year!
How many top-10 non-cons has KF played?
mopkins
King Kong
Nebraska hasn't finished ranked inside the top 20 since they joined the Big Ten. Who cares about more wins? Assuming Riley goes, Nebraska will have 5 coaching changes since Ferentz came to Iowa.
I'm not saying Iowa is exactly on par with Wisconsin, but since 2000 both Iowa and Wisconsin have gone to 3 BCS bowl games. Iowa the Rose Bowl once and the Orange twice, Wisconsin the Rose Bowl 3 times. Iowa won the Orange bowl once and lost the other 2. Wisconsin lost all 3 Rose Bowls.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
Iowa has been top-25 how many times in that period?
1
Huuuuge difference!
Their 2-4 bowl record is pretty bad, though
Course, it's better than 0-5.
pythagoras
Well-Known Member
mopkins
King Kong
I'd sure consider a difference when that "1" included a, undefeated season, conference title game, and Rose Bowl.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
No doubt. They had a perfect storm of shit happen to start the year.
Game 1 lost their star qb.
Game 2 was supposed to be a cupcake (ULM), but that got cancelled by hurricane.
Game 2 became NC State to start the conference.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Talk about Fake News, you are pointing to one year with one good game. Face it, Fry is The Godfather of the Cupcake Schedule. He did it for 10 years and showed FK how it was done.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
(Psst- Nebby has the same number of b1g championship game losses as the Hawks do)
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
Gosh, I'm sorry about that.
I assumed, with all your "careful research", you'd understand that the Canes team that came to Kinnick in '92 was #1.
My bad!
mopkins
King Kong
I don't even know what your point is anymore. If you could 100% guarantee that Iowa's success would go up with a new coach then by all means I'm all for it. However, you can't. Nobody can. Its all speculation. I'm just saying that the Ferentz era could have been a lot worse, and it could only have been slightly better. We could have been a Michigan State or a Wisconsin, we'll never be Ohio State or Oklahoma.
I'm a gambling man and the odds of a new coach turning in worse results are a lot better than rolling the dice and hoping it comes up a boxcar.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
What would you say Hayden's odds were at the time he was hired? KF's? Both were a long way from a sure thing.
Btw, I'm not in the "KF must be fired now" camp, as I've said many times. I'd like to see a coach with a demonstrated commitment to doing everything he can to help the team get better, but firing him now is not economically feasible.
Why don't we change that?
20-everything else says hi on the other side of your argument. One bad year among 7 good years in the same as 1 good year out of 7. It's an outlier.
pythagoras
Well-Known Member
2015 following through to 2016 Oregon I can keep going this its not an "outlier"
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Ten years of data speaks for itself, 1 game doesn’t change 10 years of cupcakes.
Ok. FSU's titles, undefeated seasons and former winningest coach in history are all mythical.
pythagoras
Well-Known Member
I'm going to have to assume you went to the center for kids that don't read good.....
My original statement was "Tough non-cons can be beneficial and detrimental." You can't dispute what I said is not a fact. Just because you play said games doesn't guarantee instant or long term success either.
HawkInATX
Well-Known Member
You do know that the R-squared statistic is just a "goodness of fit" test, good for establishing which of two models is a better theoretical description of a relationship? Here's a good first blush at what you want, though:
Out of 66 Power 5 teams over the last 15 years (only teams that have been P5 the whole time) Iowa ranks 24th in win (64%).
That would put them at 4th in the Big Ten (and that only counts if you include Nebraska, who was not in the B1G for most of that 15 years.
HawkInATX
Well-Known Member
How many top ten non-cons does any team play in a given season or stretch? There are only 10 top ten teams at any given point and that means in an Iowa non-con slate there are 28 options (10 teams, three weeks, assuming you can't play team from week 1 in week 2, so no rematches) and over 100 other teams who might want to try doing the same thing... So 30/128 FBS teams (wait, FCS teams too!) sooooo that's 28 /128(fbs)+124(fcs) = 30/252 = ~11.1% chance that given random scheduling you'd get a top 10 team in any given non-con slate. Over 10 seasons you'd expect one top 10 team. But there are plenty of reasons why that's a high estimate. You don't play conference teams that are ranked. THis would regularly preclude OSU, Wisconsin, Michigan in many years. Also at least one game has to be against ISU... so you would be looking at more like once every 15-17 years at that point.
In his tenure since 1999 KF has had 4 top ten non-con opponents:
1999-Nebraska
2000-Kansas State
2003-Arizona State
2010-Arizona
4/19 is more than you'd expect from random scheduling.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
1) Dean's original post on this was more about who HF / KF scheduled than about who they played. I know in my followup I said "played", but I didn't consider the situation your list highlights- clearly, KF would have had no input into the non-con schedule for his 1st years on the job (schedules being set years in advance), so 1999 & 2000 schedules would more realistically be attributed to HF, even though KF "played" them.
2) ASU (#18) and AZ (#24) were top-25, not top-10
So, KF has been part of scheduling 0 top-10's- less than you'd expect from random scheduling.
