IMO, Fran needs to make the tourney next year and minimize the "bad" losses. He has 2-3 years to either be in the conversation for regular season champ come end of Feb, and/or make a deep run in the B1G tourney. I think missing the Dance any of the next 3 years would be under performing.
In addition, making it at least to the round of 32 in the next 3 years needs to happen.
I like Fran a lot, but barring significant injury or attrition, this next 3 years will be critical for him staying at Iowa longer term.