SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Each year when putting together my annual college football preview, I begin by evaluating the talent returning on each team first. I assign that talent a projected win range of two games, and teams with a quality upperclassman starting quarterback are given a bonus of +1 wins. Then I predict their record within that win range by factoring in the schedule.
How accurate have I been over the years? Over the past few years here’s how I have applied this model to Iowa:
2008
I predicted Iowa to finish 7-5.
Iowa finished 8-4.
2009
I predicted Iowa to finish 9-3.
Iowa finished 10-2.
2010
I predicted Iowa to finish 10-2.
Iowa finished 7-5.
2011
I predicted Iowa to finish 8-4.
Iowa finished 7-5.
As you can see, with the exception of 2010 when the Hawkeyes substantially underachieved on the field given their talent level for the first time since 1997, this model is pretty accurate. As I’m beginning to put together my 2012 college football preview, I thought some of you might find it interesting to see how my model forecasts the Big Ten Conference finishing this fall.
*Illinois Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Despite bonus for quality returning upperclassman quarterback, could see a repeat of last year with a fast start followed by dropoff)
Indiana Talent: 2-4 wins
Factoring in schedule: 4-8 (Should run the non-conference slate)
*Iowa Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 7-5 (Least talented Iowa team on paper since 2001, but gets a bonus from quality upperclassman starting quarterback)
*Michigan Talent: 9-11 wins
Factoring in schedule: 9-3 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)
Michigan State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (At most only two games on the schedule oddsmakers will make Spartans an underdog in)
*Minnesota Talent: 4-6 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Bonus for quality returning upperclassman starting quarterback + soft schedule = bowl eligibility)
*Nebraska Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)
Northwestern Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Chose not to give bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback because Kain Coulter split time last year)
Ohio State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (There may be only one game on the schedule oddsmakers will make Buckeyes an underdog in)
Penn State Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (getting to a bowl game this season will not be easy)
Purdue Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (Has talent to surprise in watered down Leaders Division, but schedule doesn’t cooperate)
Wisconsin Talent: 7-9 wins
Factoring in Scheduling: 9-3 (Doesn’t have the overall talent for a 3-peat, but soft schedule makes it possible)
* means team received bonus win in my evaluation for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback
How accurate have I been over the years? Over the past few years here’s how I have applied this model to Iowa:
2008
I predicted Iowa to finish 7-5.
Iowa finished 8-4.
2009
I predicted Iowa to finish 9-3.
Iowa finished 10-2.
2010
I predicted Iowa to finish 10-2.
Iowa finished 7-5.
2011
I predicted Iowa to finish 8-4.
Iowa finished 7-5.
As you can see, with the exception of 2010 when the Hawkeyes substantially underachieved on the field given their talent level for the first time since 1997, this model is pretty accurate. As I’m beginning to put together my 2012 college football preview, I thought some of you might find it interesting to see how my model forecasts the Big Ten Conference finishing this fall.
*Illinois Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Despite bonus for quality returning upperclassman quarterback, could see a repeat of last year with a fast start followed by dropoff)
Indiana Talent: 2-4 wins
Factoring in schedule: 4-8 (Should run the non-conference slate)
*Iowa Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 7-5 (Least talented Iowa team on paper since 2001, but gets a bonus from quality upperclassman starting quarterback)
*Michigan Talent: 9-11 wins
Factoring in schedule: 9-3 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)
Michigan State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (At most only two games on the schedule oddsmakers will make Spartans an underdog in)
*Minnesota Talent: 4-6 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Bonus for quality returning upperclassman starting quarterback + soft schedule = bowl eligibility)
*Nebraska Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)
Northwestern Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Chose not to give bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback because Kain Coulter split time last year)
Ohio State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (There may be only one game on the schedule oddsmakers will make Buckeyes an underdog in)
Penn State Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (getting to a bowl game this season will not be easy)
Purdue Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (Has talent to surprise in watered down Leaders Division, but schedule doesn’t cooperate)
Wisconsin Talent: 7-9 wins
Factoring in Scheduling: 9-3 (Doesn’t have the overall talent for a 3-peat, but soft schedule makes it possible)
* means team received bonus win in my evaluation for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback