Forecasting Iowa/Big Ten

S

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
Each year when putting together my annual college football preview, I begin by evaluating the talent returning on each team first. I assign that talent a projected win range of two games, and teams with a quality upperclassman starting quarterback are given a bonus of +1 wins. Then I predict their record within that win range by factoring in the schedule.

How accurate have I been over the years? Over the past few years here’s how I have applied this model to Iowa:

2008
I predicted Iowa to finish 7-5.
Iowa finished 8-4.

2009
I predicted Iowa to finish 9-3.
Iowa finished 10-2.

2010
I predicted Iowa to finish 10-2.
Iowa finished 7-5.

2011
I predicted Iowa to finish 8-4.
Iowa finished 7-5.

As you can see, with the exception of 2010 when the Hawkeyes substantially underachieved on the field given their talent level for the first time since 1997, this model is pretty accurate. As I’m beginning to put together my 2012 college football preview, I thought some of you might find it interesting to see how my model forecasts the Big Ten Conference finishing this fall.

*Illinois Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Despite bonus for quality returning upperclassman quarterback, could see a repeat of last year with a fast start followed by dropoff)

Indiana Talent: 2-4 wins
Factoring in schedule: 4-8 (Should run the non-conference slate)

*Iowa Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in schedule: 7-5 (Least talented Iowa team on paper since 2001, but gets a bonus from quality upperclassman starting quarterback)

*Michigan Talent: 9-11 wins
Factoring in schedule: 9-3 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)

Michigan State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (At most only two games on the schedule oddsmakers will make Spartans an underdog in)

*Minnesota Talent: 4-6 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Bonus for quality returning upperclassman starting quarterback + soft schedule = bowl eligibility)

*Nebraska Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 8-4 (Gets a bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback, but tough away schedule cancels that out)

Northwestern Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in schedule: 6-6 (Chose not to give bonus for quality upperclassman returning starting quarterback because Kain Coulter split time last year)

Ohio State Talent: 8-10 wins
Factoring in schedule: 10-2 (There may be only one game on the schedule oddsmakers will make Buckeyes an underdog in)

Penn State Talent: 5-7 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (getting to a bowl game this season will not be easy)

Purdue Talent: 6-8 wins
Factoring in Schedule: 6-6 (Has talent to surprise in watered down Leaders Division, but schedule doesn’t cooperate)

Wisconsin Talent: 7-9 wins
Factoring in Scheduling: 9-3 (Doesn’t have the overall talent for a 3-peat, but soft schedule makes it possible)

* means team received bonus win in my evaluation for returning quality upperclassman starting quarterback
 
I have to agree with your thoughts on Iowa's overall talent. We seem to have a lot of average to slightly above average players. The program desperately lacks difference makers!
 
I agree with you for the most part but I just don't see Michigan State going 10-2. Michigan State lost their leaders on both sides of the ball. Cousins was such a great leader that I don't see anyone able to step in for him. They still have good running backs but I don't think they will do much through the air.

Their defense will be similar to last year but I'm not sure if it will be able to make up for their offense.
 
I don't buy into the lack of talent bull crap. We have plenty of talent, and the staff shake up is just what we needed. 8-4 or 9-3 this year and next year in the B1G championship
 
Rarely can a team lose a leader like Kirk Cousins and not skip a beat. I know the Spartans defense is going to be stout, but the offense will need time to develop. Plus their defense always seems to be dirty. You can't always depend on undisciplined players. Kirk Cousins wasn't just the leader of the offense. He was the most important player on the team. I don't believe the Spartans will reach 10 wins. I would guess 8 or 9 at the most.
 
I would say Iowa is more talented than the 2007 team. I have Iowa 8-4 to 10-2. They will start 5-0 and I cant see them finishing 2-5 the rest of the way.
 
I'm not buying the talent message either. There is a ton of talent on this team...unfortunately it is young and inexperienced talent. That being said, to me, this season boils down to a couple of points.

1) Can two/three DLinemen that haven't played step up and compete at the Big Ten level? If this happens, well our defense will be very good. Those three have to come from Carl Davis, Darian Cooper, Bud Spears, Riley McMinn, Trinca-Passat, and Casey Mac. Since this coaching staff has put alot of DL in the NFL lately, I'd say chances are better than 50/50 this happens.

2) JVB - He must improve and make plays under pressure...cause he will see alot of it. I'm game planning Iowa...I'm not going to respect the running game, and I'm sending extra people every chance I get. Iowa has to prove they can run the ball and it will take time for all the new pieces on the OL to come together. Those first 3-4 games, JVB is going to see a ton of blitz packages. It won't take long to see if he has learned from last year.

I'm not concerned with the Receivers...with our TE's (CJ and Hamilton could be stars), and the proven guys (K Davis and KMM), we should be fine.

I think 9-3 is a distinct possibility if the two scenarios above play out.
 
Scorpio79 said:
Do you know who...or rather, what...the OP is?
Click to expand...

Yes. Yes. I'm afraid I do
deace.png
 
Michigan state is vastly overrated. They lost Kirk Cousins, they lost their top 3 or 4 receivers and lost Edwin Baker on the offensive side of the ball. Yes their defense is going to be outstanding but they are replacing way to many starters on offense , I think they will fall back to the pack. Iowa will be 8 and 4 or better.
 
Keenan Davis and KMM are proven players?? What have they proven other than being average receivers. Our new OC has already complained about our lack of speed at that position.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top