expectations.

[tubahawk]

It bothers me that - right now - it looks like Wisconsin, MSU and Northwestern have passed Iowa by and taken hold of the contender status while Iowa has sagged.

I haven't been able to adequately convey/find what my exact frustration with the program has been until now. This says it best for me and I think this is the issue with many of the disgruntled fans.

 

[DJL]

People are forgetting the realities of the 2010 season if they think the 2010 team should have won ten games. If they would have stayed healthy I would say yeah but the linebackers were injured and not very good all year. The injuries on the line killed the team the second part of the season.

I agree, there were injury issues, but we lost 4 games by 4 points or less including the brutal Wisconsin and Minnesota losses. We win half those games, we are a 9 win football team. Big difference IMO.

 

[uihawk82]

I have to agree that this staff "had" a track record of averaging 7-8 wins a season, with some outstanding seasons based on Iowa history.

With the money we pour into the program in all forms we should not be falling behind MSU and Wisky and especially not losing at a 2 out of 3 pace to NW.

We should be averaging 8 wins a season + or- .5 wins in a 12 game schedule with some of the cupcakes we have in the non-conf schedule.

To be real honest, KF has lost a few to ISU and NW that he shouldnt have just based on conservative play.

The program has just been stagnant beginning in 2011. 2008-10 (even with some tough 2010 losses) was a super 3 year stretch. But we seem stagnant in power, speed, and actual performance in dropping passes and making MORE mental mistakes. The players are going to make mistakes but it seems like we are making MORE physical and mental mistakes.

The 2006 and 2007 were filled with MORE mental and physical mistakes and it showed.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

luck is a *****. That 2010 team had very little of it

Luck? Indiana dropped a sure TD in the endzone which would have made that team 6-6. That was damn lucky.

That being said... outside of getting hit unusually hard by injuries, there's no such thing as "luck" in sport. You largely get what you earn.

 

[NCHawker]

Well, we can say that KF did take action and re-tooled his staff. This move has caused a dip, just hope we get back up there again soon soon soon.

 

[Clark]

Luck? Indiana dropped a sure TD in the endzone which would have made that team 6-6. That was damn lucky.

That being said... outside of getting hit unusually hard by injuries, there's no such thing as "luck" in sport. You largely get what you earn.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Luck plays a role in every sport and every game. Whether it's as obvious as a tipped ball landing in someone else's hands or as subtle as a player slipping just slightly that throws off the timing of the entire play.

And since you're including all sports, you think there's no such thing as batted ball luck in baseball? Do you think someone making a 70 footer in basketball is all skill?

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I couldn't disagree with you more. Luck plays a role in every sport and every game. Whether it's as obvious as a tipped ball landing in someone else's hands or as subtle as a player slipping just slightly that throws off the timing of the entire play.

And since you're including all sports, you think there's no such thing as batted ball luck in baseball? Do you think someone making a 70 footer in basketball is all skill?

I think you're confusing luck with low percentage plays. physics, skill and cause & effect. The 70 foot shot doesn't go in by accident. The player has to throw it perfectly. It's a low-percentage play for sure...but it's not some quirk of nature that makes the ball go in. And a baseball that just skips off the foul poll isn't luck... that's where the guy hit it. Those outcomes are every bit as real as the mundane... just not as common. They are perceived as "luck" because they skirt the boundaries...they're not easily predictable.

Guys slip on every play... balls get tipped... there are bounces... every sport is defined by these moments. (most of them are more subtle and go unseen) They certainly look more awkward and unusual than the common play, but they are still an integral part of the game. (and the real world) Of course if you're a hard core KFz protege that may be tough for you to grasp. (Life and sport is defined only by the simple and routine). But that's not the real world.

Many people greater than me have said it this way "good teams, make their own luck".

 

[Clark]

I think you're confusing luck with low percentage plays. physics, skill and cause & effect. The 70 foot shot doesn't go in by accident. The player has to throw it perfectly. It's a low-percentage play for sure...but it's not some quirk of nature that makes the ball go in. And a baseball that just skips off the foul poll isn't luck... that's where the guy hit it. Those outcomes are every bit as real as the mundane... just not as common.

Guys slip on every play... balls get tipped... there are bounces... every sport is defined by these moments. They certainly look more awkward and unusual than the common play, but they are still an integral part of the game. (and the real world) Of course if you're a hard core KFz protege that may be tough for you to grasp. (Life and sport is defined only by the simple and routine). But that's not the real world.

Many people greater than me have said it this way "good teams, make their own luck".

low percentage outcomes succeeding is luck. I suppose if you prefer to not use that word, randomness works just as well for me.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

low percentage outcomes succeeding is luck. I suppose if you prefer to not use that word, randomness works just as well for me.

Kirk??

OK, kidding aside. "Luck" is a way of saying... since it happens rarely (or we're TOLD it happens rarely), I can't accept it happening at all...so I call it "luck" when it does.

The world, and the sports world despite all the high-tech analytics, is loaded with flawed assumptions and "conventional wisdom" that is off base.

The recent thread on the coach who onside kicks and goes for it on 4th down is a great example. It's not the actual risk that keeps coaches from doing that (because it's grossly overstated based on statistics) it's the perception...of risk. And that perception becomes reality for many. A self-limiting prophecy if you will.

All the greats in the history of mankind... are the ones who could understand and see past that.

Now Iowa State's occasional victory over a good team... THAT is definitely luck.

 

[SpecialKHawk]

The aspect that is upsetting to me the most is the head coach does not seem to reach out to the fan base for help and support. There seems to be a standoffishness which leads to further erosion of support. He does not communicate an indication that he knows what makes his program successful or a good program in the B1G nor that he has a desire to be successful.

Often he seems put off that any fan could possibly question the decision making even though it is glaringly obvious there is an issue at times. He would rather do it his way than make a change because he might be wrong.

This might not be true but the way he deals with the fans makes it seem that way.

I can accept and appreciate a coach that is honest and says we are not good but I promise you we are going to work to get better.

 

[Clark]

Kirk??

what the heck are you talking about? He's been coach for long enough now that the randomness(luck) that is inherent in any twelve game sample has evened itself out.

I don't even know that you're arguing against anymore. A lot of very smart people are spending a whole lot of resources trying to find statistical analysis that removes randomness inherent in sports.

 

[thetrza]

A wise man once said "Anything less than the best is a felony", which is why the fake punts bother me but the talent troughs and talent peaks don't.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

what the heck are you talking about? 1. He's been coach for long enough now that the randomness(luck) that is inherent in any twelve game sample has evened itself out.

2. I don't even know that you're arguing against anymore. A lot of very smart people are spending a whole lot of resources trying to find statistical analysis that removes randomness inherent in sports.

1. Yes. that's why he's barely above .500 in the Big Ten, and by the end of this season will likely be right at .500 career in the Big Ten. And, why he has lost to so many "lesser" teams. Impressive? Not. Certainly not "Top-paid-coaches-in-the-country"...impressive.

2. I'm not arguing anything. Just framing the term "luck" and how widely misused and understood it is.

3. I can't help you with the subtle references to KFz. Either you get it or you don't.

But I'll repeat the central point: Top programs don't beatch about "luck". They make their own.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

A tradition of winning just needs to be built...and it takes a special coach to do it. One who builds a team that can recruit, game plan, and get players to execute. Look at Nebraska all those years...Devine and Osborn built tradition. Jesus, why would you want to go to Lincoln to play football, it's in the middle of nowhere and nothingsville. They built an aura around the program that it was a special place to play football. I think it could happen at Iowa.

Even though I've supported KF over the years...I don't think he's the guy to take the program to the next level consistently. Could Bob Stoops? Bert Belimia? I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say Iowa could get to 9-10 win seasons with the right coach who can dominate his backyard in recruiting and pull from Ohio, ILL, and surrounding states. Hell, we have a pipeline to Texas now. Bert did it at Wisconsin over the past 3 years. I have to tell you, I have alot of respect for both of those guys...and think they could take this program to new heights.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

A tradition of winning just needs to be built...and it takes a special coach to do it....

We had one. Hayden Fry. He built it. (or perhaps, rebuilt it, after 17 years)

Then KFz took over after Hayden sagged a bit at the end of his tenure. KFz renewed it, with his own stamp. Tough, physical play built around the O and D lines. We were back.

Then something happened. He lost it. it might be age....fatigue...his complete lack of imagination....the wet cardboard personality...loss of the assistants that were really behind his success...or "fat cat syndrome" after signing the big contract. I dunno.

But about 3 years ago... he lost it. And it's crystal clear.

It's time for him to go.

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

I think you're confusing luck with low percentage plays. physics, skill and cause & effect. The 70 foot shot doesn't go in by accident. The player has to throw it perfectly. It's a low-percentage play for sure...but it's not some quirk of nature that makes the ball go in. And a baseball that just skips off the foul poll isn't luck... that's where the guy hit it. Those outcomes are every bit as real as the mundane... just not as common. They are perceived as "luck" because they skirt the boundaries...they're not easily predictable.

Guys slip on every play... balls get tipped... there are bounces... every sport is defined by these moments. (most of them are more subtle and go unseen) They certainly look more awkward and unusual than the common play, but they are still an integral part of the game. (and the real world) Of course if you're a hard core KFz protege that may be tough for you to grasp. (Life and sport is defined only by the simple and routine). But that's not the real world.

Many people greater than me have said it this way "good teams, make their own luck".

I think both of you are correct.

Sometimes ya need some bounces...AND...the harder you work the luckier you get.

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

The aspect that is upsetting to me the most is the head coach does not seem to reach out to the fan base for help and support. There seems to be a standoffishness which leads to further erosion of support. He does not communicate an indication that he knows what makes his program successful or a good program in the B1G nor that he has a desire to be successful.

Often he seems put off that any fan could possibly question the decision making even though it is glaringly obvious there is an issue at times. He would rather do it his way than make a change because he might be wrong.

This might not be true but the way he deals with the fans makes it seem that way.

I can accept and appreciate a coach that is honest and says we are not good but I promise you we are going to work to get better.

You are confusing the media with the fans...ask any fan that has met Kirk in person.

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

A wise man once said "Anything less than the best is a felony", which is why the fake punts bother me but the talent troughs and talent peaks don't.

Love or leave it..ya better gang weigh...ya better hit bullseye...the kid don't play.

I wonder if Stazi was quoting Ice.

 

[Skeets77]

Agreed - Not sure if the formation of power conferences had any influence. It's just like our messed up economy, the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. You have a couple top teams in the BIG and the rest is a mess but it's the same in all the other conferences and the disparity seems to be getting wider. Two years ago the Big 12 was close to not existing anymore with Nebraska and Colorado leaving and if Oky/Oky State would of left, it would of been goodnight Irene. The middle/lower tier teams aren't bringing in the talent, they aren't winning and aren't a big draw for TV networks. How do you get out of the muck if your an Iowa.

 

[blubberhawk]

There are 2-3 teams in the B1G that will Always and have always have more talent and depth than Iowa. OSU, Mich, PSU(minus sanctions). We have had success against a couple of these teams. Parity is happening between the perceived "lower" tier programs and mid tier programs. But overall...the top 5% of teams still have a sizable advantage overall in both talent and depth. The top 5% will stay that way...with a little ebb and flow of variance.

Its kind of akin to the socioeconomics of our country.

7-8 wins on the norm...with occaisional "magic" is where I want my Hawks...which I believe would pit them in the upper portion of the mid tier. Expecting more...well...is...say...optimistic.

If that's all you want then I guess you would agree that we do not need to pay an elite coaching salary for mediocre results.