Every game we win is like another rung on a ladder to nowhere

[Adam]

anything above 8 wins is a great season at Iowa? Why? It's only eclipsed that # 13 times in school history. That's 119 years of football folks. This team still has potential to be an all time great.

Devil's advocate in me screams to point out that surely we didn't play 12 games a year for all of those 119 years.

8 wins is a good team but just above average. 9 wins is a good team maybe low top 25. 10 wins is top 20. This team only has 1 loss so the chance to be special is still present. If they truly lose 3 more games I feel this team will have underperformed. 9 wins was my prediction and I still expect that to be the floor. I think 10 wins is extremely likely on paper. Paper tigers have no bite though. Iowa is not usually adept at performing when expectations are high nationally. I hope these kids stay on task and round out what could still be a great season.

 

[InGoodCo]

Devil's advocate in me screams to point out that surely we didn't play 12 games a year for all of those 119 years.

8 wins is a good team but just above average. 9 wins is a good team maybe low top 25. 10 wins is top 20. This team only has 1 loss so the chance to be special is still present. If they truly lose 3 more games I feel this team will have underperformed. 9 wins was my prediction and I still expect that to be the floor. I think 10 wins is extremely likely on paper. Paper tigers have no bite though. Iowa is not usually adept at performing when expectations are high nationally. I hope these kids stay on task and round out what could still be a great season.

Sure, and that's fair - more prospective would be that Iowa has only eclipsed 9 wins 12 times since 1971 when they started playing 11 games a year. So - in 47 years of football, Iowa has only won 9 or more games 12 times. That's still on the table for this team. There is just a ton still left to play for and I am gonna enjoy it for as long as I can.

 

[ChosenChildren]

Nice Troll Job, Troll.

The Wisconsin loss means nothing now. We have 7 tough games left, including what will probably be huge against Penn State. Try to win as many as possible, and then see what happens.

 

[Adam]

Sure, and that's fair - more prospective would be that Iowa has only eclipsed 9 wins 12 times since 1971 when they started playing 11 games a year. So - in 47 years of football, Iowa has only won 9 or more games 12 times. That's still on the table for this team. There is just a ton still left to play for and I am gonna enjoy it for as long as I can.

Agreed. 9 wins is an accomplishment. One that should be celebrated, but not over the top. We don't go flip cars in the street over it. Now we go to Penn St with 1 loss and leave still with 1 loss then its car flipping time.

 

[lightning1]

9 wins is a good season. I'll take it every year. The quality of opponent in the BIG West is not great, so that factors in to what I consider a good season. Given KF's penchant for allowing inferior teams to steal wins, 9 win seasons are to be celebrated.

 

[smhawk]

That damned Wisconsin choke job so early has taken all the drama from this season

Whaaammublence. - The Wisconsin game was actually a pretty solid one. The offense and defense put them in a position to win the game, turnovers and special teams lost it. Move on. Iowa still can compete for West if Badgers get upset and Iowa takes advantage of the favorable schedule. But each week, one fan base is going to be let down. Let's try not to be the fan base that can be described as a bandwagon cry baby

 

[CP87]

9 wins is a good season. I'll take it every year. The quality of opponent in the BIG West is not great, so that factors in to what I consider a good season. Given KF's penchant for allowing inferior teams to steal wins, 9 win seasons are to be celebrated.

KF does stand out in his tendency to lose as a big favorite. But in terms of his tendency to lose as a favorite overall, he is middle of the pack in the nation, and in the conference (essentially tied with Rutger, Michigan, and Nebraska; slightly behind NW; substantially behind OSU, PSU, and Wisc).

Their ability to win as an underdog is much better (essentially tied with Wisc and MSU; slightly behind NW; substantially behind OSU). As many have been saying for years, the difference between Iowa and Wisc is that Wisc wins the ones it is supposed to around 85% of the time (one of the best in the nation), and Iowa only about 77% of the time. I think @deanvogs has made the point many times that this would likely lead to one more win per year (at least another win every other year), which would greatly improve upon the KF legacy.

It also should not be overlooked that while Iowa doesn't do as well vs. expectation as say someone like NW (slightly worse as a favorite, slightly worse as a dog), Iowa is favored much more often than NW (124 times since 2003 for Iowa, 79 times in same span for NW). So KF should get knocked for being mediocre vs. expectations, but should also get credit for putting together a good enough team to have high expectations.

Fans also need to appreciate just how difficult it is for a team to win all of the games "it should win." So Iowa will be favored in 10 games this year. Let's say they win games as a favorite as frequently as OSU (best record in nation as a favorite among the P5, 88.4% win%). The odds of losing at least one of those games (assuming they are all independent events with equal probabilities) is 70%. So chances are, you are going to stumble somewhere along the way. That is why undefeated seasons are so rare, even for great teams. So if Iowa manages to win all of the games it is favored in and go 10-2, that will be a great accomplishment, even against a weakish schedule.

All stats from teamrankings.com, and spanning years 2003-present (as far back as their database goes):
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?range=yearly_since_2003&sc=is_fav&group=0

 

[CP87]

By the way, here is the article from 2014 detailing Iowa's struggles as a double-digit favorite from 2006-2014.
https://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/iowa-football-struggles-as-big-favorites-20140914

For what it is worth, Iowa actually has the 8th best win percentage as a favorite in the nation from 2015 onward (90.3%), they are essentially tied for best win% as favorite in the B1G (with PSU and Illinois, of all teams). They have the 5th most wins as a favorite in the conference over that span (behind OSU, PSU, Wisc, and Mich), and 17th most in the nation (14th most among P5). They are also 5th in overall wins in the B1G over that span (1 win behind Mich and PSU, substantially behind Wisc and OSU). 14th in overall wins in the nation among the P5.

So things seem to be trending in the right direction. Time to put the "Iowa stinks as a favorite" narrative to bed? Or do we need more evidence (Purdue and NW from last year left a bad taste, though not sure if they were favored vs. NW)?

 

[InGoodCo]

personally - I think this is a better overall team than 2015, well, has the capability of being better than that one - with far less star power. Mostly because the offense seems much more competent through 5 games and the pass rush is much better. Only time will tell but I really like this team.

 

[InGoodCo]

By the way, here is the article from 2014 detailing Iowa's struggles as a double-digit favorite from 2006-2014.
https://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/iowa-football-struggles-as-big-favorites-20140914

For what it is worth, Iowa actually has the 8th best win percentage as a favorite in the nation from 2015 onward (90.3%), they are essentially tied for best win% as favorite in the B1G (with PSU and Illinois, of all teams). They have the 5th most wins as a favorite in the conference over that span (behind OSU, PSU, Wisc, and Mich), and 17th most in the nation (14th most among P5). They are also 5th in overall wins in the B1G over that span (1 win behind Mich and PSU, substantially behind Wisc and OSU). 14th in overall wins in the nation among the P5.

So things seem to be trending in the right direction. Time to put the "Iowa stinks as a favorite" narrative to bed? Or do we need more evidence (Purdue and NW from last year left a bad taste, though not sure if they were favored vs. NW)?

Don't come around here waving your stats and facts, Iowa needs to fire coaches so they'll be in the playoffs every season.

 

[ssckelley]

The loss to Wisconsin was deflating and in some ways it felt like the season was over. Every year I go into it with hope that the Hawks will put together another run like in 2009 and 2015 and the loss to Wisconsin ended that for me. Granted there is still a lot to play for, wins are fun and so are bowl games but unless someone beats Wisconsin at least twice there will be no opportunity to play for a B10 championship. Iowa could go on and win the rest of their games and I will still look back on the Wisconsin game and get sick over it.

 

[thedukeofearl]

Some of these so called Hawk fans are sounding like a pathetic entitled fusker fan. My goodness has it really come to all or nothing? We have 12win season and it's got to be the norm. I would like to do that every year but it's just not in the cards. Not even the great and powerful Bucks can pull it off.

Whadda ya think, Chimp. Do we have a ghost of a chance at Penn State.....

 

[InGoodCo]

The loss to Wisconsin was deflating and in some ways it felt like the season was over. Every year I go into it with hope that the Hawks will put together another run like in 2009 and 2015 and the loss to Wisconsin ended that for me. Granted there is still a lot to play for, wins are fun and so are bowl games but unless someone beats Wisconsin at least twice there will be no opportunity to play for a B10 championship. Iowa could go on and win the rest of their games and I will still look back on the Wisconsin game and get sick over it.

It was deflating, but if you need Iowa to go undefeated every season to keep your interest then you're in trouble. In fact, unless you follow Alabama you're in trouble and even they lose. That's tough. Wisci is likely to lose at least one if not 2 more games this season starting with this weekend, Iowa still has a ton left to play for.

 

[ssckelley]

It was deflating, but if you need Iowa to go undefeated every season to keep your interest then you're in trouble. In fact, unless you follow Alabama you're in trouble and even they lose. That's tough. Wisci is likely to lose at least one if not 2 more games this season starting with this weekend, Iowa still has a ton left to play for.

You misread me again. I do not go into any season expecting Iowa to go undefeated and I never said I lost interest. The word I used was "deflating" (same word you used), the game against Wisconsin felt like it was for the West division crown. Even had we beaten Wisconsin I still would not have expected Iowa to go undefeated but it would have put us in the drivers seat to win the West and go to the B10 championship game. Yes there are scenarios to where Iowa could still win the West but Wisconsin is firmly in the drivers seat.

 

[Adam]

You misread me again. I do not go into any season expecting Iowa to go undefeated and I never said I lost interest. The word I used was "deflating" (same word you used), the game against Wisconsin felt like it was for the West division crown. Even had we beaten Wisconsin I still would not have expected Iowa to go undefeated but it would have put us in the drivers seat to win the West and go to the B10 championship game. Yes there are scenarios to where Iowa could still win the West but Wisconsin is firmly in the drivers seat.

Everyone hated losing that game, especially because the eyes told a story of the better team who beat themselves. The game was certainly for pole position in the west. Now we need run on low fuel and push our tires to avoid the late pit. That's the only chance we have to pass them.

So as not to confuse. I understand your position is not a "I'm done with the season" one. I did want to delve a little bit into the energy source of that hope that we have of a special season at the start of every year. Why do we feel this way? What allows us to imagine that possibility? My biggest beef with the complaining crowd is they will use every Iowa misstep to push an agenda that Iowa is not good. Every true fan thought should be conscience of the fact that our lofty expectations and hopes only exist because of the near immortality we have brushed with. These naysayers will criticize for every loss, but won't acknowledge the tremendous feat that, building a team year in and year out that even has that shot, is.

 

[HawkGold]

Everyone hated losing that game, especially because the eyes told a story of the better team who beat themselves. The game was certainly for pole position in the west. Now we need run on low fuel and push our tires to avoid the late pit. That's the only chance we have to pass them.

So as not to confuse. I understand your position is not a "I'm done with the season" one. I did want to delve a little bit into the energy source of that hope that we have of a special season at the start of every year. Why do we feel this way? What allows us to imagine that possibility? My biggest beef with the complaining crowd is they will use every Iowa misstep to push an agenda that Iowa is not good. Every true fan thought should be conscience of the fact that our lofty expectations and hopes only exist because of the near immortality we have brushed with. These naysayers will criticize for every loss, but won't acknowledge the tremendous feat that, building a team year in and year out that even has that shot, is.

These arguments are crazy. The complainers AND those complaining about the complainers. Most of us on here are smart enough to know that Iowa is in a position to be relevant in most years because of KF. Most are smart enough to realize that KF is the main reason why pretty good seasons don't become really good. In way too many cases not reaching that level (Wisconsin Level), is do to stubbornness, predictability, or playing in close to the vest. Even Saturday, to watch Fant on the side while running into a box was difficult to watch.

In the past five years we've seen an extra special year, several puke years and several...we were close years. This year is still unknown and could go several ways. We've seen enough to be optimistic and we've seen enough to have that sick feeling in the gut. Likely it will be something in the middle.

 

[ssckelley]

Everyone hated losing that game, especially because the eyes told a story of the better team who beat themselves. The game was certainly for pole position in the west. Now we need run on low fuel and push our tires to avoid the late pit. That's the only chance we have to pass them.

So as not to confuse. I understand your position is not a "I'm done with the season" one. I did want to delve a little bit into the energy source of that hope that we have of a special season at the start of every year. Why do we feel this way? What allows us to imagine that possibility? My biggest beef with the complaining crowd is they will use every Iowa misstep to push an agenda that Iowa is not good. Every true fan thought should be conscience of the fact that our lofty expectations and hopes only exist because of the near immortality we have brushed with. These naysayers will criticize for every loss, but won't acknowledge the tremendous feat that, building a team year in and year out that even has that shot, is.

I feel this way about every sports team I root for, winning it all is the ultimate. I've been a Cubs fan all my life, went into every season hoping to win the pennant and go to the WS. Same with the Bears, playoffs and go to the Super Bowl all with the hopes of winning it all. My hopes for Iowa football may be a step down from that, I can't imagine Iowa could ever win a NC but it's a dream. I go into every season with the hopes of being in position to win the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl. None of us start a year hoping the Hawks wind up in the Holiday Bowl.

But I know what I'm rooting for, it's a college team with a mountain of recruiting challenges. Iowa is one of the lowest populated states in the B10 and we share it with Iowa State. The 4 and 5 stars are rare so this is a team where coaches have to find the diamonds in the rough and find a way to compete using mostly 3 star recruits. My expectations is a bowl game every year with an occasional run, exactly what KF has done. I feel like those that are not happy with that do not have realistic expectations. But to each their own, I have no right to tell others how to be a fan but I still enjoy debating them from time to time.

 

[InGoodCo]

You misread me again. I do not go into any season expecting Iowa to go undefeated and I never said I lost interest. The word I used was "deflating" (same word you used), the game against Wisconsin felt like it was for the West division crown. Even had we beaten Wisconsin I still would not have expected Iowa to go undefeated but it would have put us in the drivers seat to win the West and go to the B10 championship game. Yes there are scenarios to where Iowa could still win the West but Wisconsin is firmly in the drivers seat.

sorry, didn't mean to misread ya and I get where you are at. I just think in the game of football - a lot of things you don't expect tend to happen. It's not often that a team wins the divisional conference titled undefeated. Since the B1G went to divisions (so 2 div a year and it's been 7 years) so out of 14 times, the division winner has gone undefeated 6 times. Out of those 6 times, it's been Ohio State 3 of em, who is obviously head and shoulders the cream of conference. Wisconsin has only finished with fewer than 2 conference losses like 4 times in the last 20 years, so it's better than average chance they are going to slip up. Just the way the game is. Chances are good Iowa is going to too tho.

 

[Adam]

I feel this way about every sports team I root for, winning it all is the ultimate. I've been a Cubs fan all my life, went into every season hoping to win the pennant and go to the WS. Same with the Bears, playoffs and go to the Super Bowl all with the hopes of winning it all. My hopes for Iowa football may be a step down from that, I can't imagine Iowa could ever win a NC but it's a dream. I go into every season with the hopes of being in position to win the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl. None of us start a year hoping the Hawks wind up in the Holiday Bowl.

But I know what I'm rooting for, it's a college team with a mountain of recruiting challenges. Iowa is one of the lowest populated states in the B10 and we share it with Iowa State. The 4 and 5 stars are rare so this is a team where coaches have to find the diamonds in the rough and find a way to compete using mostly 3 star recruits. My expectations is a bowl game every year with an occasional run, exactly what KF has done. I feel like those that are not happy with that do not have realistic expectations. But to each their own, I have no right to tell others how to be a fan but I still enjoy debating them from time to time.

Lol I wasn't referring to blind hope. I have also been a Cubs fan all my life. I didn't reasonably consider the pennant a realistic beginning season goal after the Sammy Sosa years. Lol until 2016 and 2017 that is lol.

With Iowa its different. We have every reason almost every season to believe we could win the west and a shot at the B1G championship. My point is the tremendous job of Hayden and Kirk of building a foundation so sturdy that not winning the West is a letdown. I promise you there are only 3 fanbases in the west that consider it an attainable goal year by year, and one of them is delusional as shit.

 

[N8theGr8]

sorry, didn't mean to misread ya and I get where you are at. I just think in the game of football - a lot of things you don't expect tend to happen. It's not often that a team wins the divisional conference titled undefeated. Since the B1G went to divisions (so 2 div a year and it's been 7 years) so out of 14 times, the division winner has gone undefeated 6 times. Out of those 6 times, it's been Ohio State 3 of em, who is obviously head and shoulders the cream of conference. Wisconsin has only finished with fewer than 2 conference losses like 4 times in the last 20 years, so it's better than average chance they are going to slip up. Just the way the game is. Chances are good Iowa is going to too tho.

Exactly, in my mind, it ain't over til the fat lady sings. Purdue and Northwestern are good enough to play spoiler to anyone this year. Penn State and Michigan are also ranked and on the schedule for Wiscy. The way they played against us, they are certainly beatable this year. But obviously so are we. We've got a heckuva long way to go to even be thinking about winning out. If we can get through these next two weeks and be healthy facing off against Penn State, I think we have a shot. But I'm going to be really worried about that Northwestern game the following week and then Purdue the week after that as trap games.