Connor McCaffery: Hawkeye Baseball Star?

[Adam]

I think many are underestimating Connor's ability to shoot the ball. He had little confidence this season, I won't dispute that. He did however shoot 41% and 37.1% from 3 as a Sr and Jr in HS on 120+ attempts in each season. That's a much larger sample size than the 29 he attempted this past year only making 6.

Obviously HS shooting doesn't always translate to the college game but to me his poor shooting on just a handful of attempts screams lack of confidence more than it says lack of ability when comparing it to how he shot the ball in HS. I'm not saying he's going to be a good deep ball shooter but I'll be surprised if he doesn't shoot better than 20.7% from deep next season.

Well there are typically 2 ways to lose confidence in your shot. 1 it doesn't feel good for a stretch and your clanging the rim or air balling. 2 is not being able to release clean because of defensive pressure. I think Connor's is the 2nd variety.

Confidence is a funny thing. Connor may or may not ever recover it. It starts with dedicating yourself to moving without the ball. Good movement is the key to those extra few inches of space. Once that happens the shot should be able to launch without interference. Then it's all a matter of seeing it drop. Easier said then done of course.

 

[JG10Hawk]

Well there are typically 2 ways to lose confidence in your shot. 1 it doesn't feel good for a stretch and your clanging the rim or air balling. 2 is not being able to release clean because of defensive pressure. I think Connor's is the 2nd variety.

Confidence is a funny thing. Connor may or may not ever recover it. It starts with dedicating yourself to moving without the ball. Good movement is the key to those extra few inches of space. Once that happens the shot should be able to launch without interference. Then it's all a matter of seeing it drop. Easier said then done of course.

I have to disagree with your 2nd type comment. I mean teams that actually scouted Iowa were sagging off of him for the majority of the year daring him to let it fly. Connor was just rarely looking to shoot the ball from outside. Now his percentage may have been low due to forcing well defended shots at the end of a shot clock but I wouldn't say he lacked confidence because of too much defensive pressure.

Side note, to as little credit Connor gets on this board, he was actually very good at drawing contact. He led the team in FTR and was 2nd to Cook in FTA/Min for anyone that played significant time. Not a bad thing for a guy that shoots 75%+ from the line.

 

[Fryowa]

Pat shot well this last year in HS as well. Unfortunately, that's not going to translate to B1G BB either.

This.

I'll go dollars for donuts that he never starts a game at a P6 school and transfers from Iowa before his junior year starts.

 

[Fryowa]

Side note, to as little credit Connor gets on this board, he was actually very good at drawing contact. He led the team in FTR and was 2nd to Cook in FTA/Min for anyone that played significant time. Not a bad thing for a guy that shoots 75%+ from the line.

I get the sentiment, but you have to take the player as a whole. For instance, people here salivate over Bohannon, but he's unquestionably the worst defensive payer on this team...that absolutely means something, and it's just as significant as offensive production. If a guy drains a three from 6 feet beyond the line it looks flashy and everything, but if on the next two plays his guy blows by him for weakly contested layups, that player has netted a negative 1 point.

The points you create change the game score the exact same amount as the ones you give up. Bohannon and McCaffery's WS/40s are just abysmal compared to Garza, Baer, and Wieskamp. Bohannon's DWS for his entire career is 0. He went .3 as a FR, -.3 as a SO, and 0 this past year.

Connor's WS/40 was .012 this year vs. .133, .128, and .127 for Garza, Baer, and Wieskamp respectively, and was by FAR the worst of anyone who played 300 minutes.

I think people look at scoring and shooting percentage as the be all/end all of a players value and don't stop to consider the effect of their whole game on the outcome.

 

[JG10Hawk]

I get the sentiment, but you have to take the player as a whole. For instance, people here salivate over Bohannon, but he's unquestionably the worst defensive payer on this team...that absolutely means something, and it's just as significant as offensive production. If a guy drains a three for 6 feet beyond the line it looks flashy and everything, but if on the next two plays his guy blows by him for weakly contested layups, that player has netted a negative 1 point.

The points you create change the game score the exact same amount as the ones you give up. Bohannon and McCaffery's WS/40s are just abysmal compared to Garza, Baer, and Wieskamp. Bohannon's DWS for his entire career is 0. He went .3 as a FR, -.3 as a JR, and 0 this past year.

Connor's WS/40 was .012 this year vs. .133, .128, and .127 for Garza, Baer, and Wieskamp respectively, and was by FAR the worst of anyone who played 300 minutes.

I think people look at scoring and shooting percentage as the be all/end all of a players value and don't stop to consider the effect of their whole game on the outcome.

Agreed, you definitely have to look at the player as a whole. FYI it looks like you are pulling the conference only numbers in. If you look at the overall WS/40 the numbers for Jordan and Connor look little better when comparing to the rest of the team. When looking at the overall WS/40 Connor was actually ahead of Moss by .001 for the year lol.

 

[Tierney]

I think Bohannon got a lot of his glory by scoring a lot of points late in the games. He didn't really look that great at shooting otherwise. I think Connor played more at the end of games than Moss, but I'm not really that sure. Anyway, when Iowa had the lead or it was close Bohannon had a knack for hitting the three pointer, and he got a ton of free throws. I think he lead the nation in points scored in the last few minutes of games. Its kind of strange he was deadly at the end of a game, but not so much during the game. I'm looking forward to seeing what the new point guard can do.

 

[Fryowa]

FYI it looks like you are pulling the conference only numbers in.

Correct. I try to do that most of the time since it allows you to compare against teams in your conference more apples/apples (I know it’s not perfect), and conference games are way more significant to the big picture. There are more anomalies during OOC, experimenting with different lineups, different sets, etc.

I should have clarified that, though.

 

[Adam]

I have to disagree with your 2nd type comment. I mean teams that actually scouted Iowa were sagging off of him for the majority of the year daring him to let it fly. Connor was just rarely looking to shoot the ball from outside. Now his percentage may have been low due to forcing well defended shots at the end of a shot clock but I wouldn't say he lacked confidence because of too much defensive pressure.

Side note, to as little credit Connor gets on this board, he was actually very good at drawing contact. He led the team in FTR and was 2nd to Cook in FTA/Min for anyone that played significant time. Not a bad thing for a guy that shoots 75%+ from the line.

Re watch the first 6 B1G games or so. Connor was swarmed. He was harrassed on the dribble and given little space for shooting. Teams sagged only after the confidence was lost and it showed on the tape.

 

[Adam]

This.

I'll go dollars for donuts that he never starts a game at a P6 school and transfers from Iowa before his junior year starts.

That's a loaded bet. Pat is log jammed behind JW and Nunge. He is not starting over either guy. Also the chances that Fran makes it another 3 years seems pretty low. Bad betting terms. Too slanted towards the house.

 

[Fryowa]

That's a loaded bet. Pat is log jammed behind JW and Nunge. He is not starting over either guy. Also the chances that Fran makes it another 3 years seems pretty low. Bad betting terms. Too slanted towards the house.

I didn’t say just Hawkeyes, though. I said any P6 team.

 

[Adam]

I didn’t say just Hawkeyes, though. I said any P6 team.

So you will give me, Start for any P6 in a potential 6 year career? How many top 100 kids never start? I got to take those odds. Name the terms.

 

[Fryowa]

So you will give me, Start for any P6 in a potential 6 year career? How many top 100 kids never start? I got to take those odds. Name the terms.

$20 to the children’s hospital. I hope I’m wrong.

And he’s 114th ranked on 24/7. Kid’s on a rocket sled down in the rankings because scouts are seeing that with his thyroid stuff he’s not going to put on weight. I watched the Iowa HS tournament and frankly he struggled. That’s bad, because it’s HS ball, not against top players. I think he got over sold when he was younger and now people realize it was a miss. At 6-8,170 ish pounds you’d have to have some sort of miraculous part of your game that stands out to succeed and it isn’t there. If you watch his highlight films it’s 90% him getting alley-oop dunks over top of 6’ tall kids who wouldn’t play JUCO ball let alone D-1. Well guess what? That ain’t happening in the Big Ten. The only thing left is defense and a great shot, and well...you don’t have to take my word for it, there’s a reason he keeps dropping in the rankings every few weeks.

I could lose this bet if Fran keeps flushing recruits down the toilet. I won’t be mad either way.

 

[Adam]

$20 to the children’s hospital. I hope I’m wrong.

And he’s 114th ranked on 24/7. Kid’s on a rocket sled down in the rankings because scouts are seeing that with his thyroid stuff he’s not going to put on weight. I watched the Iowa HS tournament and frankly he struggled. That’s bad, because it’s HS ball, not against top players. I think he got over sold when he was younger and now people realize it was a miss. At 6-8,170 ish pounds you’d have to have some sort of miraculous part of your game that stands out to succeed and it isn’t there. If you watch his highlight films it’s 90% him getting alley-oop dunks over top of 6’ tall kids who wouldn’t play JUCO ball let alone D-1. Well guess what? That ain’t happening in the Big Ten. The only thing left is defense and a great shot, and well...you don’t have to take my word for it, there’s a reason he keeps dropping in the rankings every few weeks.

I could lose this bet if Fran keeps flushing recruits down the toilet. I won’t be mad either way.

Book it. Also please pick a 3rd party arbitrator. This bet could run for several years.

 

[Adam]

$20 to the children’s hospital. I hope I’m wrong.

And he’s 114th ranked on 24/7. Kid’s on a rocket sled down in the rankings because scouts are seeing that with his thyroid stuff he’s not going to put on weight. I watched the Iowa HS tournament and frankly he struggled. That’s bad, because it’s HS ball, not against top players. I think he got over sold when he was younger and now people realize it was a miss. At 6-8,170 ish pounds you’d have to have some sort of miraculous part of your game that stands out to succeed and it isn’t there. If you watch his highlight films it’s 90% him getting alley-oop dunks over top of 6’ tall kids who wouldn’t play JUCO ball let alone D-1. Well guess what? That ain’t happening in the Big Ten. The only thing left is defense and a great shot, and well...you don’t have to take my word for it, there’s a reason he keeps dropping in the rankings every few weeks.

I could lose this bet if Fran keeps flushing recruits down the toilet. I won’t be mad either way.

P.S. He is ranked 62nd in ESPN top 100 and 73th on Rivals. 247 appears to be his lowest ranking.

Also just saw the kid the other day. He looks just like Baer did his Freshman year.

 

[Fryowa]

Book it. Also please pick a 3rd party arbitrator. This bet could run for several years.

No need to not trust me.

 

[IowaLawWasRight]

A lot has happened with Hawkeye basketball since my initial post. 4 of our top 7 returning players declared for the NBA/transferred, and 1 came back. Perhaps the most shocking move, starter Moss transferring, it's been rumored that he was pissed off that he would ride the bench for extended periods of time at the ends of games in favor of Iowa's lowest % shooter/coach's son, McCaffery.

McCaffery looks to play a much bigger role next year with the exodus of guards, so it's time to revisit the often repeated story that McCaffery is a bona fide Major League prospect who will likely be a top draft pick in this year's MLB draft. The regular baseball season is over, so how did he end up once he burned the rust off and focused entirely on baseball?

12th in the team in batting avg (.235), 15th in on base/slugging percentage. Just 5 RBIs all season and 1 HR. Led the team in strikeouts per at bat.

Clearly just like his 4 star hs basketball rating, McCaffery's baseball accolades coming into the season appear to be all hype and no substance. Since the MLB draft is well out of range, it's safe to say that Connor needs to either pick a sport and go all in with it, or come off the bench as a below avg role player in two sports.

Throughout the basketball season, it was no secret that Connor struggled mightily with his shot (he ranked last in the Big 10 in 3 point percentage) and his ability to penetrate or guard at the point guard position. His effort was there, though, and he played valuable minutes on an NCAA tourney team. It was often said that, "sure, he's not quite there in baskeball, but he's a super star in baseball and will likely be gone next year to the MLB draft." When the Iowa media is touting such things, it seems believable. He was, after all, one of the highest ranked basketball recruits in the Fran era, so to hear that he's a highly touted baseball prospect makes sense.

The baseball season is nearly complete, so I thought I would take a look for the first time and see how Connor is doing. Surely, as a top MLB prospect, he's tearing things up at the Big 10 level, right? Well, not so much.

Through 42 games, Connor is coming off the bench and is tied for 13th on the team in batting avg at .238. I thought, well maybe he's a power hitter and swings for the fences? Nah. 1 home run and 0 triples. He does have one thing in common with power hitters though. In 63 at bats, he has 22 strikeouts (he has struck out 35% of his at bats, while hitting 20% from 3 point land).

Connor is a hard working Hawk who was one of the few in history to play two sports at Iowa. But after two years, I think we can safely lower expectations for him. At this level, kids are probably better off focusing on doing one sport really well rather than 2 sports mediocre.

 

[Northside Hawk]

A lot has happened with Hawkeye basketball since my initial post. 4 of our top 7 returning players declared for the NBA/transferred, and 1 came back. Perhaps the most shocking move, starter Moss transferring, it's been rumored that he was pissed off that he would ride the bench for extended periods of time at the ends of games in favor of Iowa's lowest % shooter/coach's son, McCaffery.

McCaffery looks to play a much bigger role next year with the exodus of guards, so it's time to revisit the often repeated story that McCaffery is a bona fide Major League prospect who will likely be a top draft pick in this year's MLB draft. The regular baseball season is over, so how did he end up once he burned the rust off and focused entirely on baseball?

12th in the team in batting avg (.235), 15th in on base/slugging percentage. Just 5 RBIs all season and 1 HR. Led the team in strikeouts per at bat.

Clearly just like his 4 star hs basketball rating, McCaffery's baseball accolades coming into the season appear to be all hype and no substance. Since the MLB draft is well out of range, it's safe to say that Connor needs to either pick a sport and go all in with it, or come off the bench as a below avg role player in two sports.

Maybe he should give hockey a try.

 

[Cableman]

Or maybe we should give him more than a year plus his sickly redshirt year?

 

[Fryowa]

A lot has happened with Hawkeye basketball since my initial post. 4 of our top 7 returning players declared for the NBA/transferred, and 1 came back. Perhaps the most shocking move, starter Moss transferring, it's been rumored that he was pissed off that he would ride the bench for extended periods of time at the ends of games in favor of Iowa's lowest % shooter/coach's son, McCaffery.

McCaffery looks to play a much bigger role next year with the exodus of guards, so it's time to revisit the often repeated story that McCaffery is a bona fide Major League prospect who will likely be a top draft pick in this year's MLB draft. The regular baseball season is over, so how did he end up once he burned the rust off and focused entirely on baseball?

12th in the team in batting avg (.235), 15th in on base/slugging percentage. Just 5 RBIs all season and 1 HR. Led the team in strikeouts per at bat.

Clearly just like his 4 star hs basketball rating, McCaffery's baseball accolades coming into the season appear to be all hype and no substance. Since the MLB draft is well out of range, it's safe to say that Connor needs to either pick a sport and go all in with it, or come off the bench as a below avg role player in two sports.

Who said he was a top MLB draft pick? Honest question.

Hitting at the D-1 level, even in our bottom feeder conference, is it something you cannot do by working on it 3 months out of 12 unless you are a one in 50 million freak like Deion Sanders, Kyler Murray, or Bo Jackson, etc.

I know Taylor Zeutenhorst (a much better ball player than McCaffery) and his family well, and he spent over 300 days a year in the cage from his senior year in high school until he finally left the Canaries after playing A ball. And he never even got out of A ball (He’s instructing at Diamond Dreams now). People don’t comprehend the talent gap each step of the way. Going from Big Ten to A ball is a light year jump, so is A to AA, and it’s even worse to AAA. The next step to MLB is a bigger jump than all three levels of minor league ball combined. Ask Nic Ungs.

Connor is not a Minor League baseball player. He’s a serviceable D-1 guy and if he quit basketball to work on his swing he’d get a shot playing independent league especially with his size and being a lefty, but that’s the ceiling, IMO.

 

[Robowe]

Who said he was a top MLB draft pick? Honest question.

Hitting at the D-1 level, even in our bottom feeder conference, is it something you cannot do by working on it 3 months out of 12 unless you are a one in 50 million freak like Deion Sanders, Kyler Murray, or Bo Jackson, etc.

I know Taylor Zeutenhorst (a much better ball player than McCaffery) and his family well, and he spent over 300 days a year in the cage from his senior year in high school until he finally left the Canaries after playing A ball. And he never even got out of A ball (He’s instructing at Diamond Dreams now). People don’t comprehend the talent gap each step of the way. Going from Big Ten to A ball is a light year jump, so is A to AA, and it’s even worse to AAA. The next step to MLB is a bigger jump than all three levels of minor league ball combined. Ask Nic Ungs.

Connor is not a Minor League baseball player. He’s a serviceable D-1 guy and if he quit basketball to work on his swing he’d get a shot playing independent league especially with his size and being a lefty, but that’s the ceiling, IMO.

Agreed. Let's see what summer league baseball does for him.