Compairing Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois

HawkPrdatr40

HawkPrdatr40

Well-Known Member
Reality Bites: It really is comparing apples to oranges. IMO Both Minnesota and Illinois can finish 9-9 in the Big Ten and get to the dance. Iowa just doesn't have the body of work that Illinois and Minnesota have.

Note: These rankings I'm throwing out there haven't been updated yet from the weekend on Realtimerpi.com.

Iowa: SOS (93) RPI (97).. Bad Losses (2) at Virginia Tech and at Purdue. Quality Wins (3) Iowa State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Note: RealtimeRPI GAMER Projected Record: 19-12 (8-10). Remaining wins: at Penn State, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska Remaining losses: Minnesota, at Nebraska and at Indiana.

Minnesota: SOS (3) RPI (10). Bad Losses (0) Quality Wins (10) Richmond, Memphis, Stanford, at Florida State, South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Michigan State, Northwestern, at Illinois and Iowa. I see Minnesota finishing 10-8 or 9-9 in the BT if they do they are a LOCK for the Dance. Note: RealtimeRPI Projected Record: 23-8 (11-5). They project they will lose 1 more game at Ohio State.

Illinois: SOS (6) RPI (33) Bad Losses (1) at Purdue. Quality Wins (7) Butler, at Gonzaga, Eastern Kentucky, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Indiana and at Minnesota. Note: Realtimerpi GAMER Projected Record: 19-13 (7-11) Remaining losses: at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Iowa and at Ohio State. Remaining Wins: Purdue, Penn State and Nebraska
 
HawkPrdatr40 said:
Reality Bites: It really is comparing apples to oranges. IMO Both Minnesota and Illinois can finish 9-9 in the Big Ten and get to the dance. Iowa just doesn't have the body of work that Illinois and Minnesota have.

Note: These rankings I'm throwing out there haven't been updated yet from the weekend on Realtimerpi.com.

Iowa: SOS (93) RPI (97).. Bad Losses (2) at Virginia Tech and at Purdue. Quality Wins (3) Iowa State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Note: RealtimeRPI GAMER Projected Record: 19-12 (8-10). Remaining wins: at Penn State, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska Remaining losses: Minnesota, at Nebraska and at Indiana.

Minnesota: SOS (3) RPI (10). Bad Losses (0) Quality Wins (10) Richmond, Memphis, Stanford, at Florida State, South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Michigan State, Northwestern, at Illinois and Iowa. I see Minnesota finishing 10-8 or 9-9 in the BT if they do they are a LOCK for the Dance. Note: RealtimeRPI Projected Record: 23-8 (11-5). They project they will lose 1 more game at Ohio State.

Illinois: SOS (6) RPI (33) Bad Losses (1) at Purdue. Quality Wins (7) Butler, at Gonzaga, Eastern Kentucky, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Indiana and at Minnesota. Note: Realtimerpi GAMER Projected Record: 19-13 (7-11) Remaining losses: at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Iowa and at Ohio State. Remaining Wins: Purdue, Penn State and Nebraska
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Good numbers. Although, Illinois losing at home to Northwestern by 14 has to be considered a bad loss, doesn't it?
 
No way Minnesota finishes 11-7. They likely finish 8-10 with their schedule (pre-BTT). Purdue also likely finishes 7-11 or 8-10. So, if Iowa and Illinois take care of business, they will be battling for 6-7 place in the regular season standings, imo.
 
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This is why RPI sucks. Richmond being a quality win while Purdue is a bad loss. That makes no ******* sense.
 
Why is beating Iowa a good win for Minny (at home) while losing to Purdue (at PU, in OT) is a bad loss. That is dumb. So is SDSU, NDSU, etc.

No idea how they determine good/bad win.

Also, I don't think Iowa loses at Nebby. Also, if this was prior to this weekend they had Minny only losing to OSU the rest of the way, and then they fall on their face against ILL. So really my point is, that nobody projecting this stuff knows anything until the season is over and it is all played out. Scenarios are nice, but nobody knows who will beat who. Iowa could lay an egg against PSU and then beat Indiana. who knows. That's why they play the games.
 
woodyk1 said:
Good numbers. Although, Illinois losing at home to Northwestern by 14 has to be considered a bad loss, doesn't it?
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Only if Northwestern drops out of the top 100, some RPI rankings still have them in the top 100. But they are projected to win 1 more game the rest of the way, by the end of the conference season they should be a bad loss.
 
How is Northwestern at home a quality win? And I assume we are projected to lose at Nebraska because they are way overrated in the RPI.
 
hawkfarmer said:
Why is beating Iowa a good win for Minny (at home) while losing to Purdue (at PU, in OT) is a bad loss. That is dumb. So is SDSU, NDSU, etc.

No idea how they determine good/bad win.

Also, I don't think Iowa loses at Nebby. Also, if this was prior to this weekend they had Minny only losing to OSU the rest of the way, and then they fall on their face against ILL. So really my point is, that nobody projecting this stuff knows anything until the season is over and it is all played out. Scenarios are nice, but nobody knows who will beat who. Iowa could lay an egg against PSU and then beat Indiana. who knows. That's why they play the games.
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This is so true. There is not enough difference between Purdue and Iowa for one to be considered a good win and the other a bad loss.
 
SDSU and the F'ing Bison from NDSU are quality wins? Didn't Minny beat a DII school they can count as a quality win?
 
volhawk50 said:
How is Northwestern at home a quality win? And I assume we are projected to lose at Nebraska because they are way overrated in the RPI.
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The same reason why Illinois losing to Northwestern is not a bad loss, Northwestern is still ranked in the top 100 in most of the RPI rankings I have seen.
 
RPI is a joke value, and IMO should not be used as a way to quantify a team's value.

the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 times its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.

Now, the SOS is a huge part of it, and since SOS is also a biased estimate (does not account for variation due to conference very well) and is in my opinion again a weak measure. So, without actually going into the statistics, I personally think that this is a joke of a way to compare teams.
 
hawkfarmer said:
RPI is a joke value, and IMO should not be used as a way to quantify a team's value.

the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 times its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.

Now, the SOS is a huge part of it, and since SOS is also a biased estimate (does not account for variation due to conference very well) and is in my opinion again a weak measure. So, without actually going into the statistics, I personally think that this is a joke of a way to compare teams.
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Do you think it's best to just wait until the end of the conference season and use KenPom to compare teams?
I guess I don't know the best way to handle all of this.

In reality about 10 teams at most have a shot at wining the NCAA tournament, and then you only have about 40 teams that are no doubt locks deserving to be in the tournament. Then outside of that you have to fill the tournament with the rest. I really have no idea how much really separates the rest of the teams out there once you go off that criteria.

Maybe my thought is too many teams make the NCAA tournament.
 
Illinois is going to make it in, I'd be shocked if they didn't. Their non-con schedule is extremely strong and they have a feather in their cap of beating Indiana. Minnesota has some really strong wins too. I think both of those teams can get in with 8-10 records based off of their non-conference schedule.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Iowa made the tournament. However I do think that you need to be 10-8 with 1 win in the BTT. Maybe 2 wins in the BTT. 10-8 sounds great but it really depends on what happens with Minnesota and Illinois. If they falter big time then basically Iowa has 1 really strong win (Wisconsin) and 1 quality win (ISU).

Wouldn't surprise me at all if you guys won 3 games in the BTT depending on what teams you get matched up with. MSU and Mich are bad matchups for you. Wisconsin and Indiana are much better.
 
Section136 said:
Why is only one of our wins against NU considered a "good win"?
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I think this is because most RPI rankings were figured on Saturday before Iowa beat Northwestern a second time. Once the RPI rankings are updated Northwestern will probably be removed as a quality win since they drop out of the top 100. Most of the RPI ranks that update every day have Northwestern around 102.
 
ssckelley said:
I think this is because most RPI rankings were figured on Saturday before Iowa beat Northwestern a second time. Once the RPI rankings are updated Northwestern will probably be removed as a quality win since they drop out of the top 100. Most of the RPI ranks that update every day have Northwestern around 102.
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But the OP says "Northwestern" for a quality win, not "at Northwestern".
 
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