College To NFL HCs...

[Fryowa]

With all the talk lately about Matt Campbell talking to the Bears, it got me thinking deeper about college coaches making the step to the NFL (as head coaches).

Started thinking about how truly rare success is. Like...you'd have to be a complete idiot to even think about it rare. How many have actually done it and been successful?

We all know the flops...there's too many to even mention. Saban, Spurrier, urbs, Kingsbury, Rhule, Schiano, Petrino, Kiffin, the list goes on and on and on.

Jimmy Johnson did it but right out of the gate he lucked into the most lopsided trade in the history of football and he had that big oil money to buy him a team. Tom Coughlin was pretty good but he had an uber short stint at BC and was way more in the pro game by that time anyway. Harbaugh and Pete Carroll definitely did it well.

In what I'd call the modern age of the last say, 50 years, I'd say you can count on one hand the coaches who were able to make it work. Why in god's name would anyone (especially in today's world of requiring immediate success) even think about leaving a cushy college job with the money college coaches get paid? Obviously guys who are driven enough to be successful P4 coaches don't get that way by being "settlers," but holy shit. They also have to be intelligent enough to understand the odds.

 

[haydensly]

I agree. If Campbell is looking for a bigger, better gig, he should go to a P4 conference team. He could be choosy about what job he wants. Some school would be willing to pay him big $$ with a long contract to boot.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Pete Carroll is the guy that sticks out as one of the true success stories, but even his picture is tainted because he cheated (by the standards of the time).

Of course, Harbaugh is the same in both success at both levels and cheating.

Switzer won championships at both levels. I am sure he cheated too given where he coached.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I see three reasons to leave college for NFL:

1. $ It can be double or more.
2. Wanting to say you were at the top of the mountain. Nick Saban is the greatest college coach of all-time. Belicheck is better because he did it at the highest level.
3. Don't underestimate how soul crushing it must be for a grown ass man who is at the top of his profession to sit in a 17 year old kids living room and beg him to come play at his school. Teenagers are insufferable enough, but when you are required to kiss their ass? Uggg


That said, I agree with your point, Fry, and a relatively safe collegiate gig where you are revered if you are reasonably successful, sounds better than a cut throat NFL gig.

 

[Fryowa]

1. $ It can be double or more.

This is the only part where we slightly disagree.

I had a post a couple weeks ago comparing the top 32 college coach salaries vs the NFL. It was almost dead even as a total and only a small few NFL HCs made more than the ones at the top of the college pile. The inverse becomes true relatively quickly in the pecking order. And the guys who would be considered for the higher paying NFL gigs aren't low-down on the college scale as far as pay to begin with.

Now I'll admit that Matt Campbell doesn't make as much per year as a top NFL guy, but the total value of his contract at ISU is more than what he'd get guaranteed in the league. It's also basically a lifetime appointment. That's worth an abstract amount of money. Also this particular discussion about Campbell is moot because there's zero chance the Bears would actually hire him.

I do understand your point, but when we're talking dollar amounts there's way more to it than yearly salary.

It has to be an ego thing in each of these cases, which I understand due to the type of people drawn into the major college football coach role.

 

[trj]

There is a lot love out there for Marcus Freeman. If I were him I would stay at ND for at least 4 or 5 more years. You have a straight path to the playoffs, without really being in a conference, and you have a shit ton of money to pay players. He is a rock star now, and his value will only go up, if he sticks around ND, until his mid 40(s).

 

[trj]

I agree. If Campbell is looking for a bigger, better gig, he should go to a P4 conference team. He could be choosy about what job he wants. Some school would be willing to pay him big $$ with a long contract to boot.

If Matt Campbell wants to continue being a HC, at the Power 4 level, he should only leave ISU for a blue blood job. And there only about 10 of them.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

This is the only part where we slightly disagree.

I had a post a couple weeks ago comparing the top 32 college coach salaries vs the NFL. It was almost dead even as a total and only a small few NFL HCs made more than the ones at the top of the college pile. The inverse becomes true relatively quickly in the pecking order. And the guys who would be considered for the higher paying NFL gigs aren't low-down on the college scale as far as pay to begin with.

Now I'll admit that Matt Campbell doesn't make as much per year as a top NFL guy, but the total value of his contract at ISU is more than what he'd get guaranteed in the league. It's also basically a lifetime appointment. That's worth an abstract amount of money. Also this particular discussion about Campbell is moot because there's zero chance the Bears would actually hire him.

I do understand your point, but when we're talking dollar amounts there's way more to it than yearly salary.

It has to be an ego thing in each of these cases, which I understand due to the type of people drawn into the major college football coach role.

At the risk of getting into an economics argument, what I would say is that NFL coaches tend to not last as long, but they get a concentrated hit of huge amounts of money while they are on top. 20+ million dollar contracts are not created equal. One coach gets 24 million for 4 years in the NFL, versus a college guy who gets 3 million a year for 8 years. These guys are not dummies and they have money guys, who are investing that money into something giving them a passive 15% return, and even if they get canned after 4 years, they move down to college or a coordinator position and probably make something close to what the college guy is making.

My point is, whether college or pro, if the 5 year guaranteed NFL money is significantly more than the longer term, safer money presented by the college gig, and all other things are equal, take the bird in the hand. No one can say for certain what their career opportunities will be in 5 years. Maximize your income while you can.

 

[Grady]

Another issue is the 'once an NFL coach, always an NFL coach' policy'. The NFL fraternity is so strong that even if you're a one-time failure as an NFL head coach, you automatically have a job in the NFL for life at some level, if you want one. Maybe as an Offensive or Defensive Coordinator. Now, the college game is increasingly that way too, but a failed head coach may drop down to a Coordinator role at a lower tier conference, at least temporarily, until you work your way back up to head coach at a lesser school. So, as a failed head coach, would you rather be an NFL Coordinator, or coach at say, Bowling Green?

 

[Hawkboys]

There is a lot love out there for Marcus Freeman. If I were him I would stay at ND for at least 4 or 5 more years. You have a straight path to the playoffs, without really being in a conference, and you have a shit ton of money to pay players. He is a rock star now, and his value will only go up, if he sticks around ND, until his mid 40(s).

South Bend is low cost of living too, lower than IC I think. And if you win at ND like he's doing now, he'll be set financially for life with their very rich alumni throughout the US if he "retires" early.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

South Bend is low cost of living too, lower than IC I think. And if you win at ND like he's doing now, he'll be set financially for life with their very rich alumni throughout the US if he "retires" early.

With the type of money these guys are making, COA doesn't factor in a whole lot except for the size of mansion you can afford. But, I get that coaching the Rams and coaching Notre Dame probably allows for more bang for your buck housing wise.

 

[CP87]

With all the talk lately about Matt Campbell talking to the Bears, it got me thinking deeper about college coaches making the step to the NFL (as head coaches).

Started thinking about how truly rare success is. Like...you'd have to be a complete idiot to even think about it rare. How many have actually done it and been successful?

We all know the flops...there's too many to even mention. Saban, Spurrier, urbs, Kingsbury, Rhule, Schiano, Petrino, Kiffin, the list goes on and on and on.

Jimmy Johnson did it but right out of the gate he lucked into the most lopsided trade in the history of football and he had that big oil money to buy him a team. Tom Coughlin was pretty good but he had an uber short stint at BC and was way more in the pro game by that time anyway. Harbaugh and Pete Carroll definitely did it well.

In what I'd call the modern age of the last say, 50 years, I'd say you can count on one hand the coaches who were able to make it work. Why in god's name would anyone (especially in today's world of requiring immediate success) even think about leaving a cushy college job with the money college coaches get paid? Obviously guys who are driven enough to be successful P4 coaches don't get that way by being "settlers," but holy shit. They also have to be intelligent enough to understand the odds.

Saban was far from a flop. His inaugural season was 9-7 with Gus Frerote as QB, and he followed that with 6-10 with Joey Harrington. If he had the stomach to stick with the NFL, and if he found a competent QB, he would have been successful. But when Alabama came in with the Godfather offer, he couldn't say no.

 

[Fryowa]

Saban was far from a flop. His inaugural season was 9-7 with Gus Frerote as QB, and he followed that with 6-10 with Joey Harrington. If he had the stomach to stick with the NFL, and if he found a competent QB, he would have been successful. But when Alabama came in with the Godfather offer, he couldn't say no.

I still consider it a flop. He’s said himself it was a disaster and the wrong move. He was in way over his head with players making way more money than him and being the true ones in charge. At the very least he was unsuccessful and his attempt at improving his career was a failed endeavor.

 

[Seth53]

With all the talk lately about Matt Campbell talking to the Bears, it got me thinking deeper about college coaches making the step to the NFL (as head coaches).

Started thinking about how truly rare success is. Like...you'd have to be a complete idiot to even think about it rare. How many have actually done it and been successful?

We all know the flops...there's too many to even mention. Saban, Spurrier, urbs, Kingsbury, Rhule, Schiano, Petrino, Kiffin, the list goes on and on and on.

Jimmy Johnson did it but right out of the gate he lucked into the most lopsided trade in the history of football and he had that big oil money to buy him a team. Tom Coughlin was pretty good but he had an uber short stint at BC and was way more in the pro game by that time anyway. Harbaugh and Pete Carroll definitely did it well.

In what I'd call the modern age of the last say, 50 years, I'd say you can count on one hand the coaches who were able to make it work. Why in god's name would anyone (especially in today's world of requiring immediate success) even think about leaving a cushy college job with the money college coaches get paid? Obviously guys who are driven enough to be successful P4 coaches don't get that way by being "settlers," but holy shit. They also have to be intelligent enough to understand the odds.

And....$4mil a year goes a hell of a long ways in Ames Iowa.

How much more does a guy really need?

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I still consider it a flop. He’s said himself it was a disaster and the wrong move. He was in way over his head with players making way more money than him and being the true ones in charge. At the very least he was unsuccessful and his attempt at improving his career was a failed endeavor.

Didn't he quit on his team midseason?

 

[Hawkfnntn]

If Deion Sanders ends up the Cowboys coach the over under for how long he lasts will be what? 2-3 yrs? I'm here to see the train wreck that would be. Sounds like Jerry is up for offering the job or why even talk to him about it. Ball is in Deions court and if he's serious about being a coach for a long time the college game and what Colorado has allowed him to do fits him so much better.

Now Jerry has more patience then most owners with coaches that aren't working out. So who knows what Deion will do either way he'll be entertaining. Colorado has to be praying he stays. They could slide back into mediocrity just as fast as they came out of it if he leaves.

 

[Fryowa]

If Deion Sanders ends up the Cowboys coach the over under for how long he lasts will be what? 2-3 yrs? I'm here to see the train wreck that would be. Sounds like Jerry is up for offering the job or why even talk to him about it. Ball is in Deions court and if he's serious about being a coach for a long time the college game and what Colorado has allowed him to do fits him so much better.

Now Jerry has more patience then most owners with coaches that aren't working out. So who knows what Deion will do either way he'll be entertaining. Colorado has to be praying he stays. They could slide back into mediocrity just as fast as they came out of it if he leaves.

He's pretty clear that he wants his kids both playing for him. If Shadeur works out as a QB I think he's got a shot at it. With the salary cap the difference between the worst and best teams in the league is pretty minute so there's really no way he can get an edge that way, but I think with him being a Cowboy alum and the hype it would create might be something that would get guys to restructure contracts to play there. Stranger things have happened. This deal would hinge 100% on Shdeur, and the hype of it all being able to get a team inplace. That said, the playoffs are a one-loss-and-you-go-home thing, so your whole season can end just because of one bad night. Can he go there and win? I think so. But does that mean he can win in the playoffs? There's a whole lot more luck involved in single elimination tournaments than there

 

[Fryowa]

Didn't he quit on his team midseason?

He didn't but the day after it ended he left.

You're probably remembering the media frenzy because Shula got fired from Alabama mid season so all the rumors were going crazy. I remember they asked him about it non-stop in every Dolphins press conference.

He waited till the season was over but I'm sure his mind was made up long before that. He was obviously checked out.

 

[Fryowa]

If Deion Sanders ends up the Cowboys coach the over under for how long he lasts will be what? 2-3 yrs? I'm here to see the train wreck that would be. Sounds like Jerry is up for offering the job or why even talk to him about it. Ball is in Deions court and if he's serious about being a coach for a long time the college game and what Colorado has allowed him to do fits him so much better.

Now Jerry has more patience then most owners with coaches that aren't working out. So who knows what Deion will do either way he'll be entertaining. Colorado has to be praying he stays. They could slide back into mediocrity just as fast as they came out of it if he leaves.

A couple more things to consider...

Sanders' is likely to go pretty early in the draft, so between the cost of buying out Prescott's no trade clause and the money they'd have to spend trading up to get Shadeur, I don't know if Jones would spend the money on it. He's a well-known tight ass in his old age for the amount of money he has available. That's a lot of coin to pony up for a 50/50 roll of the dice. Deion is on record saying he won't go somewhere to coach if his kid isn't playing for him.

I do think he'd have a good shot at making it work if he was there, though. Deion has been at the top of the player mountain and nothing he's shown so far has indicated to me he'd have a problem dealing with big egos. He certainly has one thing that no other current coaches have, and that's the credibility of playing at the most elite skill level. If Deion Sanders jumps on a guy about his effort, skill, or any other thing, it's a whole lot different coming from him than Mike McCarthy who looks like he puts Salisbury steak, gravy, and Miller Lite in a blender and chugs a liter of it for breakfast every day. He played one season of JUCO ball and one season of NAIA division II ball. There are high school teams that would do well in those leagues. McCarthy won a Super Bowl, but he also had Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson on his starting lineup. Not saying he doesn't know what he's doing, but if there's an available coach who can credibly deal with primadonnas and huge egos it's Deion Sanders. He was one of them himself.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I have seen nothing from Deion that suggests he is a Top Tier Coach like Harbaugh or others coming out of college. He is a great showman, promoter, and hype guy. He can recruit very well. None of those things are all that germane to the pro game.

He did well at a very low level of college football by selling kids on his hype (and buying kids for cheap at that level). He got better talent than Jackson State deserved given his huge personality and that led to him kicking but at the HBU level.

Honestly, what has he done of note at CU? Yes, CU was a dumpster fire and he immediately injected it with talent. He then took that talent and beat no one of note. What has his signature win been in two years? Beating an 8-5 Baylor team at home? There are also a lot of embarassing losses in there, a lot of which I would put on coaching.

Also, what would the record be without a Top 5 QB that bears his last name, and the best two-way player in a generation? Shadure is the reason that team clawed its way to slightly above average, and CU will regress next year because of it, IMHO. I get that he recruited and coached those guys up, but he won't have that sort of control at the next level to have one of the best QBs at the helm, and if he does end up with Shadure, that kid aint a top end NFL QB.

There is scant evidence for any NFL owner to conclude that Deion has the bench skills, roster management, and general abilities to be a successful coach at the next level. He will win the press conference, but I have serious doubts if he wins a whole lot more than that.