JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
On Monday, the Big Ten sent out smoke signals that it would be OK with a selection committee to choose the best four teams in college football and have a four team playoff.
A selection committee seems like the most fair way to pick the best four teams. It's better than a conference champions only requirement, because there will be years where two teams from the same league are among the top four teams. Last year was likely such a year with LSU and Alabama from the SEC and 2006 was likely such a year with Ohio State and Michigan from the Big Ten.
I think this is also bad news for Boise State...which is fine by me because I am not a fan of all the run they have gotten in recent years because they just don't play the type of week in, week out heavy hitting schedule like you see in most of the leagues.
Here is what the best four teams might have looked like in recent years, following the regular season, in my opinion. I will include the Top Six of the final BCS poll of each year and then pick four teams.
2011
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Stanford
5. Oregon
6. Arkansas
LSU and Alabama would have made the field, as would have Oregon, who smoked Stanford on the field. I think you throw in Oklahoma State in there, too. Not too much debate would have ensued with those four teams.
2010
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
Auburn and Oregon were no brainers here. I would have included Stanford as well, as it was just a dominant season for the most part for The Cardinal in Jim Harbaugh's last season as their head coach. The last spot? It would have created debate and I suspect a committee would have gone with TCU as they were 12-0. I would have gone with Wisconsin, a team who ended that season on an historic tear and looked as good as anyone in the nation. I realize that TCU beat them in the Rose Bowl, but we aren't talking about that; this is about the best teams at the end of the regular season. TCU had an impressive 47-7 win against Utah late in that season and the Utes were ranked #5 at that time. Ohio State was also 11-1 but they were not as impressive as Wisconsin in my opinion.
2009
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincinnati
4. TCU
5. Florida
6. Boise State
Alabama and Texas are again easy picks here as they were both 13-0, but then things get crazy. Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State had perfect records and Florida was 12-1. I think Florida would have gotten one of the final two spots and then Cincinnati with the fourth slot in Brian Kelly's last year as coach. They did some remarkable things that year, including a change at quarterback at halftime in one game due to injury, and running vastly different plays in the second half without skipping a beat. Once again, Boise State gets left behind.
2008
1. Oklahoma
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Utah
Oklahoma and Florida played for the title that year and would make this list. I suspect it would have probably gone to order with Texas and Alabama rounding out the top four. No room for a 'buster' here, even with Utah sitting there at 12-0.
2007
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Missouri
Not as easy as it looks. Ohio State was the lone one-loss team with the other five all having two losses. But Missouri is out as they lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. I think its a safe pick to go conference champs here and stay 1-2-3-4.
2006
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. LSU
5. USC
6. Louisville
Easy pickings 1-2-3. Michigan lost by three to Ohio State in a 1 v 2 end of season game that was a shootout. I felt they were the best two teams in the nation but I am probably biased there. Florida won the SEC, so they are in. Then it comes down to 10-2 LSU and 10-2 USC. The Trojans won their league...I think in a selection committee set up, that is going to factor into the mix quite a bit.
One more here, skipping down to 2002:
1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. USC
5. Iowa
6. Washington State
Miami and Ohio State were undefeated, so they make it. Georgia was 12-1 and won the SEC and I would put them in, too. However, USC was 10-2 and Iowa 11-1. Iowa rolled through their final six games like a hot knife through butter and ended the regular season on a nine-game winning streak. USC ended that year on a seven game win streak. Iowa might have gotten the nod here with a selection committee due to their perfect 8-0 record in the Big Ten.
One name you haven't seen is Notre Dame. In 2005, they were 6th in the final BCS poll but would not have been in the final Top Four. That was their highest ever finish in the final BCS poll during the BCS era.
The Irish have played Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, USC and Boston College every year for the last several years and/or a long time. Their contract with Michigan has been reduced to three-year deals and then reevaluation.
The first thing they have to do is get back to being relevant in college football, because they are not relevant right now and haven't been for some time. If they go 11-1 against the teams they presently have on their schedule, they'll have a shot at getting into this mix...but that is true for most teams in a major conference with a similar record. Will there be additional pressure on them to join a major conference with a selection committee style final four?
I think the answer to that is no...UNTIL they begin to have a hard time scheduling. If a Michigan decided to no longer play Notre Dame in the non-conference, they have a problem. Will a Final Four playoff scenario encourage teams to soften up the out of conference schedule or will the non-conference strength of schedule become a valuable factor for teams 'on the bubble'?
One more Notre Dame thought...if college football moves to a Final Four and a selection committee, it's going to change the entire landscape of the bowl system...no more automatics and fewer traditional tie ins as we have come to know. This will help Notre Dame because of their TV draw and be more of a reversion to what the bowl system used to be like...at least that is my thought, which only emboldens Notre Dame's position to remain independent...until they lose scheduling partners.
All are important questions that will be difficult to answer until we operate under the system. That said, I think it's also a safe bet that Boise State will continue to have a tough time crashing the party even if it's expanded to a Final Four and with a selection committee.
A selection committee seems like the most fair way to pick the best four teams. It's better than a conference champions only requirement, because there will be years where two teams from the same league are among the top four teams. Last year was likely such a year with LSU and Alabama from the SEC and 2006 was likely such a year with Ohio State and Michigan from the Big Ten.
I think this is also bad news for Boise State...which is fine by me because I am not a fan of all the run they have gotten in recent years because they just don't play the type of week in, week out heavy hitting schedule like you see in most of the leagues.
Here is what the best four teams might have looked like in recent years, following the regular season, in my opinion. I will include the Top Six of the final BCS poll of each year and then pick four teams.
2011
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Stanford
5. Oregon
6. Arkansas
LSU and Alabama would have made the field, as would have Oregon, who smoked Stanford on the field. I think you throw in Oklahoma State in there, too. Not too much debate would have ensued with those four teams.
2010
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
Auburn and Oregon were no brainers here. I would have included Stanford as well, as it was just a dominant season for the most part for The Cardinal in Jim Harbaugh's last season as their head coach. The last spot? It would have created debate and I suspect a committee would have gone with TCU as they were 12-0. I would have gone with Wisconsin, a team who ended that season on an historic tear and looked as good as anyone in the nation. I realize that TCU beat them in the Rose Bowl, but we aren't talking about that; this is about the best teams at the end of the regular season. TCU had an impressive 47-7 win against Utah late in that season and the Utes were ranked #5 at that time. Ohio State was also 11-1 but they were not as impressive as Wisconsin in my opinion.
2009
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincinnati
4. TCU
5. Florida
6. Boise State
Alabama and Texas are again easy picks here as they were both 13-0, but then things get crazy. Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State had perfect records and Florida was 12-1. I think Florida would have gotten one of the final two spots and then Cincinnati with the fourth slot in Brian Kelly's last year as coach. They did some remarkable things that year, including a change at quarterback at halftime in one game due to injury, and running vastly different plays in the second half without skipping a beat. Once again, Boise State gets left behind.
2008
1. Oklahoma
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Utah
Oklahoma and Florida played for the title that year and would make this list. I suspect it would have probably gone to order with Texas and Alabama rounding out the top four. No room for a 'buster' here, even with Utah sitting there at 12-0.
2007
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Virginia Tech
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Missouri
Not as easy as it looks. Ohio State was the lone one-loss team with the other five all having two losses. But Missouri is out as they lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. I think its a safe pick to go conference champs here and stay 1-2-3-4.
2006
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. LSU
5. USC
6. Louisville
Easy pickings 1-2-3. Michigan lost by three to Ohio State in a 1 v 2 end of season game that was a shootout. I felt they were the best two teams in the nation but I am probably biased there. Florida won the SEC, so they are in. Then it comes down to 10-2 LSU and 10-2 USC. The Trojans won their league...I think in a selection committee set up, that is going to factor into the mix quite a bit.
One more here, skipping down to 2002:
1. Miami
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. USC
5. Iowa
6. Washington State
Miami and Ohio State were undefeated, so they make it. Georgia was 12-1 and won the SEC and I would put them in, too. However, USC was 10-2 and Iowa 11-1. Iowa rolled through their final six games like a hot knife through butter and ended the regular season on a nine-game winning streak. USC ended that year on a seven game win streak. Iowa might have gotten the nod here with a selection committee due to their perfect 8-0 record in the Big Ten.
One name you haven't seen is Notre Dame. In 2005, they were 6th in the final BCS poll but would not have been in the final Top Four. That was their highest ever finish in the final BCS poll during the BCS era.
The Irish have played Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, USC and Boston College every year for the last several years and/or a long time. Their contract with Michigan has been reduced to three-year deals and then reevaluation.
The first thing they have to do is get back to being relevant in college football, because they are not relevant right now and haven't been for some time. If they go 11-1 against the teams they presently have on their schedule, they'll have a shot at getting into this mix...but that is true for most teams in a major conference with a similar record. Will there be additional pressure on them to join a major conference with a selection committee style final four?
I think the answer to that is no...UNTIL they begin to have a hard time scheduling. If a Michigan decided to no longer play Notre Dame in the non-conference, they have a problem. Will a Final Four playoff scenario encourage teams to soften up the out of conference schedule or will the non-conference strength of schedule become a valuable factor for teams 'on the bubble'?
One more Notre Dame thought...if college football moves to a Final Four and a selection committee, it's going to change the entire landscape of the bowl system...no more automatics and fewer traditional tie ins as we have come to know. This will help Notre Dame because of their TV draw and be more of a reversion to what the bowl system used to be like...at least that is my thought, which only emboldens Notre Dame's position to remain independent...until they lose scheduling partners.
All are important questions that will be difficult to answer until we operate under the system. That said, I think it's also a safe bet that Boise State will continue to have a tough time crashing the party even if it's expanded to a Final Four and with a selection committee.
