Call me a Sunshine Pumper

N

NikeHawk21

Well-Known Member
I think Iowa is closer to a tournament team than you guys think. I'm not sure what the meltdown is about as many people expected some head scratching losses and likely an NIT type season.

I ran a few RPI calculations for our current RPI under the following scenarios:

#1. I think there are two games this year where Iowa got absolutely jobbed by the officials. @Neb & @ Minnesota. I entered wins in for both of those games and got the following:

16-11 (8-6 T-3rd) / RPI projection: 86
-Bubble team (likely out) NIT lock

#2. I think Jok's injury has been severely underestimated by many. Through the Purdue game he was averaging over 3 made 3s a game, since he's averaged roughly one (8 made in 7 games). I estimated that Iowa with a healthy Jok would have won an additional two games (Home vs. MD & Home vs ILL). They held leads inside 4 minutes of both of those games. I actually think they may win @ Illinois with a healthy Jok too but didn't include that in this projection:

18-9 (10-4 T-2nd) / RPI projection: 51
NCAA tournament lock.

Maybe I'm a sunshine pumper, but I think this team is a lot closer to an NCAA team than many on here think. I think Jok's injury killed us. Food for thought.
 
DJL said:
We just lost to Illinois at home. Not much sunshine to be had around Iowa basketball these days.
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Plus it's freaking raining today, sunshine tomorrow. Going into the season, I didn't expect much, but when I continue to see how Iowa "plays to lose" in close games, that's what gets me going....
 
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DJL said:
We just lost to Illinois at home. Not much sunshine to be had around Iowa basketball these days.
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Getting swept by a bad Illinois team hurts in the worst way.

I just think when you have a player go from getting you 20 a night playing at a 1st Team all Conference level, turn into a player averaging 14 points on 35% shooting and under 30% from 3, it's not that surprising.
 
-------I think Iowa is closer to a tournament team than you guys think.

So that is the goal now? Holy shit, how far the bar has fallen!!!
 
Playmaker said:
-------I think Iowa is closer to a tournament team than you guys think.

So that is the goal now? Holy shit, how far the bar has fallen!!!
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The bar changes every year. I have a feeling the bar will be really high in two years. Then you can say "holy shit, how far the bar has risen!!!"
 
Playmaker said:
-------I think Iowa is closer to a tournament team than you guys think.

So that is the goal now? Holy shit, how far the bar has fallen!!!
Click to expand...

Not the goal. I'm not happy with the results of the season, but at the end of the day many expected an NIT type of season for this young club. While we may not make the NIT I think the season has gone about how many expected.

Point of this thread was to show even if we dont make the NIT, we probably are better than the results indicated.
 
Yeah, this season has been about what I expected, give or take. I was figuring 16-18 wins and possible NIT, and they still may get there. It doesn't mean I'm happy with that, but it just kind of is what it is when you lose as much from last year's team as they did. I expect next year to be better.

I think the OP is correct that going from where we are now to being in the dance is not all that huge of a leap, but the fact is that this team isn't very good yet. Just too young. There's a reason the team has lost some of these games besides just some crappy officiating.

But, I remember an Iowa team in the 1990's going 11-16, and finishing 9th in the league. That team had freshmen and sophomores named Jess Settles, Chris Kingsbury, Russ Millard, Kenyon Murray, etc.. Those guys ended up being pretty good. So let's see how it goes a year or two from now.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Yeah, this season has been about what I expected, give or take. I was figuring 16-18 wins and possible NIT, and they still may get there. It doesn't mean I'm happy with that, but it just kind of is what it is when you lose as much from last year's team as they did. I expect next year to be better.

I think the OP is correct that going from where we are now to being in the dance is not all that huge of a leap, but the fact is that this team isn't very good yet. Just too young. There's a reason the team has lost some of these games besides just some crappy officiating.

But, I remember an Iowa team in the 1990's going 11-16, and finishing 9th in the league. That team had freshmen and sophomores named Jess Settles, Chris Kingsbury, Russ Millard, Kenyon Murray, etc.. Those guys ended up being pretty good. So let's see how it goes a year or two from now.
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Well said. Thanks.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Do you think Jok has been hurt the last 9 games?
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I don't think he's been healthy lately. We were bad when he was healthy. I laugh at the people that said they expected it to be this bad this year when that was not at all the case in the preseason. I got crucified for saying this was an NIT team at best and I think like 70 some percent of posters said this would be a tournament team in Jon's preseason poll
 
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