i agree with this completely. they tend to converge over the season. its not a direct statistical correlation, but there is correlation present. this is also why our neutral court UNI win will end up helping us (perhaps greatly) by mid-march.
Bubble Watch 2013 – The Precarious Resume of Iowa
- Thread starter storminspank
- Start date
i agree with this completely. they tend to converge over the season. its not a direct statistical correlation, but there is correlation present. this is also why our neutral court UNI win will end up helping us (perhaps greatly) by mid-march.
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
We'll either see the Pomeroy/Sagarin ratings drop or the RPI rise depending on what Iowa (and its opponents do) the rest of the way.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I have found it very easy to put the Lickliter years out of my mind. We are playing the pace and style of ball I like to watch. Fran is doing a great job of getting the right pieces...even going back to a guy like Cartwright. Can you imagine what Fran's 1st year would have been like without Cartwright? He wasn't a star but a piece we needed to even step on the floor and make a game of it...and he found in June. I just love where this train is headed...even starting to sense something a little special yet this year.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I agree and don't anticipate being disappointed!
Side Note: A few days ago I thought we could avoid Michigan with the 6 seed. Today I have no idea which team will be the 3 seed. It might even be Wisconsin which would be the perfect Storm...yeah that pun was just for you. If we can hit that 10-8 and get Wisconsin in the 2nd round. Oh my!
Side Note: A few days ago I thought we could avoid Michigan with the 6 seed. Today I have no idea which team will be the 3 seed. It might even be Wisconsin which would be the perfect Storm...yeah that pun was just for you. If we can hit that 10-8 and get Wisconsin in the 2nd round. Oh my!
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H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
What game do you think would hurt the least outside of Indiana?
Nebraska (RPI 97 on the Road)
Minnesota (RPI 10 at home)
This is where the RPI gets a little tricky. The Nebby loss would also give you a "bad" loss but i am talking strictly RPI
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Losing to MN at home would hurt the least, but beating MN at home would help the most, IMO.
That's a phenomenal question posed, by the way.
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Actually, I believe it's .6 for home win and 1.4 for road win. (Correct me if I'm wrong)
But the point remains, losing to Nebraska with a near 100 RPI would hurt more than losing at home to an RPI 10 team, even with the %s.
But I don't think it's black and white.
Beating MN at home even with the .6 would likely be better for Iowa's RPI than beating a 90 RPI team with the 1.4 boost.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
Yep, 0.6 and 1.4. That probably leans to losing at home to Minnesota.
What about Illinois at home vs. Nebraska on the road?
The point im trying to make is there are 3 Absolute, posititve must win games and those are:
@ PSU
Purdue at Home
Nebraska at Home
Then the best losses are as follows
IU on the road
Minnesota at home
Illinois @ home or Nebby on the road
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Agree!
Best Losses: Ind on road, MN at home, Ill at home
Worst Losses: PU at home, Neb at home, PSU on road
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Sorting out the top 4 is getting as difficult (maybe more difficult) as 6th through 8th. I'm going to make an educated guess and it's a total guess on the top 4...would be much easier if I waited until tomorrow to see if Wisconsin can beat Minnesota tonight. If Wisconsin loses tonight I put them alone in 4th with Ohio State 5th.
MSU (15-3) - Only loss is at MI
IN (14-4) - Losses at MSU and at MI
MI (14-4) - Wins out
WI (14-4) - Only loss is at MSU...could lose tonight at MN
MSU (15-3) - Only loss is at MI
IN (14-4) - Losses at MSU and at MI
MI (14-4) - Wins out
WI (14-4) - Only loss is at MSU...could lose tonight at MN
herkyattack
Well-Known Member
Members of the media are currently in Indianapolis for a mock NCAA tournament selection process. Someone asked Seth Davis whether Iowa is up for consideration, and it doesn't look too good.
Seth Davis @SethDavisHoops
nope. I actually voted for them to be considered but I guess not enough others did RT : Iowa up for consideration?
Seth Davis @SethDavisHoops
nope. I actually voted for them to be considered but I guess not enough others did RT : Iowa up for consideration?
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Rlesterfan
Well-Known Member
Yes, they will, which shows a flaw in the RPI system. Instead of Iowa playing a pair of the 300+ SOS teams in the early part of the season (which I think was good for the team), if Iowa would played @ Duke and lost by 50, and played @ another top 10 team and lost by 50, they would be 20-25 points higher in the RPI at minimum. Why should they be shown to be a better team when the went to another school and lost ? How can a 50 point loss be better for a team then a 50 point win ? In the RPI it can.
It is a flawed system when SOS is 75% of the calculation.
clicheusername3
Banned
Depends on what everyone else around them does, their score will definitely improve based on the result, but you would have to look at the group of teams ahead and behind of them as well.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
That's why instead of playing the South Carolina State's of the world, you play the Stoney Brook's of the world....teams that are usually in the Top 3 of the non-BCS conferences and end up Top 100-Top 150 of the RPI. If I were Iowa, what I would do is try to play as many top 3 non-BCS conference schools at home....teams like Lousiana Tech, New Mexico State, Middle Tenn State, Southern, Western Illinois, Stephen F Austin, Akron, Stony Brook, Mercer, and Montana. If that's the RPI game that needs to be played, then we may as well play it.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Up until this year those teams would have beaten Iowa. But going forward that looks like a good strategy.
scullydirt
Well-Known Member
Had Iowa beaten the Spartans when they led by 3 with a a little over a minute left, we would be talking about their seeding possiblities now. 
