Bubble Watch 2013 – The Precarious Resume of Iowa



If ghost was still here I'm 100% sure there would be a thread started about how many threads there are about the hawks and the bubble. :)

Good work and I look forward to the full edition.
 


It's crazy early and if (big IF) the Hawks get on a roll, the committee would look very favorably on our squad. Some close losses, brutal Big Ten, etc... We need to climb those B1G standings, I believe. That's how we punch our ticket. Our out-of-conference results are neither here nor there this year. The conference home stretch and playing 2-3 days in conference tourney will be the deciding factor. Or have us hoping for a run to the Big Apple.
 


bpiercehawks said:
It's crazy early and if (big IF) the Hawks get on a roll, the committee would look very favorably on our squad. Some close losses, brutal Big Ten, etc... We need to climb those B1G standings, I believe. That's how we punch our ticket. Our out-of-conference results are neither here nor there this year. The conference home stretch and playing 2-3 days in conference tourney will be the deciding factor. Or have us hoping for a run to the Big Apple.
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I don't think it's too early at all. The season is 80% of the way done and at this point you can separate the contenders from the pretenders. The exception to this rule is a team like Iowa that's played such an "unbalanced" conference schedule. Thru the 1st 10 games of the conference schedule, we played the #1 schedule in all of college basketball. It gets infinitely easier from here on out, so the opportunity to do some damage is available. The flip side of that would be Minnesota. Their RPI is currently at 13, but their next 4 games are: Wisconsin, @ Iowa, @ OSU, Indiana. They could easily go 0-4 and be sitting at 5-10 and on the outside looking in. But those are the exceptions and with only 5-7 games to go before conference tournaments start, you can pretty much narrow the bubble down to 20 teams for about 7-9 available slots.
 




Spank, I am curious as to how Iowa will get an RPI in the 50s if they finish 9-9. Of Iowa's remaining games the best chance for quality wins are against Illinois, Minnesota, and @ Indiana. Beating Nebraska twice, Purdue, and Penn State will not move the RPI very much. IMO, I think Iowa needs to win 2 of the 3 quality teams to have any chance of an RPI in the 50s, but to finish at 9-9 that means Iowa absorbs a bad loss.
 


ssckelley said:
Spank, I am curious as to how Iowa will get an RPI in the 50s if they finish 9-9. Of Iowa's remaining games the best chance for quality wins are against Illinois, Minnesota, and @ Indiana. Beating Nebraska twice, Purdue, and Penn State will not move the RPI very much. IMO, I think Iowa needs to win 2 of the 3 quality teams to have any chance of an RPI in the 50s, but to finish at 9-9 that means Iowa absorbs a bad loss.
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They essentially need to move up 35 spots. Adding 5-6 wins will significantly help. They will need to beat Illinois and Minnesota to get it done.
 


Nicely done Spank. I've said this in other threads and I will say it again here. Iowa had to play the weak non-conference schedule. If we had played a tough schedule and gone 7-6 we would not have the number of overall wins likely needed and may have lost our confidence as a young team and gotten blasted in the close games we have enjoyed so much. We have enjoyed the close losses. Right...Right?
 


Absolutely, a team full of freshman did not need to play a strong non conference. But I do hope the schedule gets stronger next year and the year after.
 


I definitely agree. The Big Ten is always going to provide several quality games (potential wins) but we have enough talent and depth now to play some games against the teams in the 25 to 75 range. We won't even have UNI next year so we're talking ACC - Big Ten Challenge and ISU. I want more Wichita State caliber of teams.

ssckelley said:
Absolutely, a team full of freshman did not need to play a strong non conference. But I do hope the schedule gets stronger next year and the year after.
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Next year we have 3 seniors and 2 or 3 (depends on Olaseni redshirt) juniors in the playing rotation...not to mention 3 sophomores that have played from day 1 at Iowa. It's time to see how we stack up against some higher caliber competition.
 


Great discussion. Wow, I hope we beat Penn State because if we do, Carver is going to be rocking on Sunday against the Golden Rodents.

Isn't it great to actually be talking about the NCAA tournament this late in the season? It has been a long, long time coming.

Love this coach and this young team!
 




storminspank said:
They essentially need to move up 35 spots. Adding 5-6 wins will significantly help. They will need to beat Illinois and Minnesota to get it done.
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If they do and Minny, Illy, Wisky and Ia State continue to win (even UNI) the RPI will climb. Even the last win against Purdue and if Northwestern can recover with another win or 2... the RPI will be fine.
 


I honestly do not think the RPI will matter much if Iowa gets into the tournament or not. If Iowa gets to .500 in conference I think they are on the bubble and in if they finish 10-8 regardless what the RPI is. If Bracketologist consider a 80+ RPI team like Virginia on the bubble I think a B1G team can get in with an RPI in the 60s, perhaps even the 70s.
 




Excellent article. Without Gatens going Jimmer down the stretch last season, the team doesn't make the NIT. I think the same type of herculean effort is needed from Marble or 2-3 other guys (Oglesby, McCabe and Basabe). If a couple guys can start knocking down shots, it may be possible to beat MN and IL, which IMO, will be critical to bolstering our not so robust list of good wins. I am not sure that anything short of 6-1 down the stretch and two wins in the BTT will get it done, as Iowa doesn't have star power or a story to get them over the hump.
 


WindsorHawk said:
Next year we have 3 seniors and 2 or 3 (depends on Olaseni redshirt) juniors in the playing rotation...not to mention 3 sophomores that have played from day 1 at Iowa. It's time to see how we stack up against some higher caliber competition.
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Iowa will be projected Top 5 in the B1G.
Anything less than 2nd round of the NCAA would probably be a bit disappointing.

Amazing to type that 3 years removed from a 10 win season.
 


ssckelley said:
I honestly do not think the RPI will matter much if Iowa gets into the tournament or not. If Iowa gets to .500 in conference I think they are on the bubble and in if they finish 10-8 regardless what the RPI is. If Bracketologist consider a 80+ RPI team like Virginia on the bubble I think a B1G team can get in with an RPI in the 60s, perhaps even the 70s.
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Typically (but not always) the RPI and Sag/KenPom get pretty close towards the end of the season.
I do not anticipate there being a 55 spot gap at the end of the season. This is why I think Iowa's RPI will jump to the 50s.
 


tednugentfan said:
Excellent article. Without Gatens going Jimmer down the stretch last season, the team doesn't make the NIT. I think the same type of herculean effort is needed from Marble or 2-3 other guys (Oglesby, McCabe and Basabe). If a couple guys can start knocking down shots, it may be possible to beat MN and IL, which IMO, will be critical to bolstering our not so robust list of good wins. I am not sure that anything short of 6-1 down the stretch and two wins in the BTT will get it done, as Iowa doesn't have star power or a story to get them over the hump.
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They need to beat either Illinois or Minn. Can't lose to both.
And then at least 1 in the BTT, with a good showing in the 2nd round vs. the 2 or 3 seed.
If they beat both Ill and Minn + 1 in the BTT, I don't know how they'd be left out.
 


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