BTN Media Day Content

[Fryowa]

Every metric, advanced or simple, shows that ppg (along with TO margin) is the leading indicator for a successful year....not yards.

1) Show me the metrics you're talking about and the actual correlations that support PPG being a better indicator. I can say I shit a gold bar but until I show you video of it happening it's bs.

2) If it's such a reliable indicator, why were the Hawks 5-4? You can give me any reason you want, but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't correlate.

3) The Hawkeyes' across the board low rankings in offensive statistics last year, however, perfectly correlate with their results. It's also no coincidence that our defense was ranked in the top 3 of most relevant defensive team statistics.

 

[PCHawk]

I just watched the BTN show.
While critical of the team in some aspects they still qualified some the comments around injuries that kept some starters on O out and our O going up against our D.

I paid attention to the plays they showed in "scrimmage". AJE lived in the backfield on the plays Stanley was off. As good as Jackson is/is supposed to be, AJE was blowing right past him. He is going to make a lot of QBs have off days this fall.

I hope they don't do what they did in 2010. What a wise of Clayborn's senior year. They need to take away the short stuff, force the QB to hold the ball longer, and bank on your playmakers making plays. Otherwise it's gunna be dink and dunk, AJ getting frustrated, and the defense being out of gas in the 4th quarter. You have possibly the best pass rusher in the nation. Please don't waste him again.

 

[PCHawk]

Wasn't last year a year where the defense scored a ton of points? Those points for some reason go towards the offense's average.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Listen...they just came off the shiny new toy at Nebraska. Now that they are off their knees in front of Scott Frost, their initial comparison is going to be Stanley vs. Martinez. Is it really that surprising that they did the ole, geez, it was a bad day for Nate routine?

Let me tell you...if Phil Parker knows what he's talking about (he does) and he is singling out Daviyon Nixon as a player...then you throw Golston, Lattimore, Nixon, and AJE at Stanley in a given practice...well...I'm willing to bet no one looks good against those four...one of them is going to get pressure every play.

Dinardo can be an idiot and he's throwing darts half the time...he's bound to get something right eventually...but I hardly think seeing one practice gives you much...other than whether teams look the part. The one glaring thing is that they said Iowa was just throwing short stuff all day...there you have it. KF being KF...nothing on film for anyone.

 

[4thngoal]

Idk, I didn't find it all that criticizing. There are some things that sounded ok.
I think the meh attitude is because they were just in Nebraska and when rebuilding a shit show dumpster fire program like Nebraska, everything is high energy and sunshine pumping. They are trying to get to a bowl this year.

 

[CP87]

1) Show me the metrics you're talking about and the actual correlations that support PPG being a better indicator. I can say I shit a gold bar but until I show you video of it happening it's bs.

2) If it's such a reliable indicator, why were the Hawks 5-4? You can give me any reason you want, but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't correlate.

3) The Hawkeyes' across the board low rankings in offensive statistics last year, however, perfectly correlate with their results. It's also no coincidence that our defense was ranked in the top 3 of most relevant defensive team statistics.

Win% vs. yards/game in 2018 college football:


The # of yards per game your offense produces explains about 30% of the variability in your win%.

Win% vs. Pts/game:


Pts/game explains about 50% of your win% (duh, how much you want to bet that pts allowed/game explains about 50% as well?).

So clearly scoring points means more than just getting yards.

To no one's surprise, average Margin of Victory is a great predictor of Win%:


MOV can explain 86% of the win% variation. But it is not perfect. NW has a +1 MOV and 64% win% (88% in B1G). ND had a +13.2 MOV and 92% win%. Iowa had a better MOV, 13.4, but only a 69% Win%.

It is just common sense that points matter more than yards. But, of course yards tend to predict points.


Yards/game explains 80% of the variance in pts/game. You can see Iowa is above the curve, scoring as many points as a team that averages about 40-50 more yards per game.

So to the point at hand, OF COURSE points matter more, so we shouldn't dismiss Iowa scoring effectively just because their yards/game is less than stellar. But if they gain more yards, they would be expected to score more points.

What we should really be doing is judging how many points they score per drive compared to how many they would be expected to score based upon starting field position and strength of the opposing defense. Luckily, football outsiders does that for us. Based upon this metric, Iowa is 48th in the country. In the B1G, they are behind (in order): OSU, Mich, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, PSU, and Wisconsin. So Iowa is 8th. Lots of room for improvement.

The good news is that in terms of defensive efficiency, they were 7th nationally, and 2nd in the B1G (behind MSU).

And if the offense gets more yards, they will tend to put the defense in better field position, yielding even fewer points (of course, punting is huge here as well).

 

[CP87]

Dammit, everyone is telling me 8.5 wins:


I wonder who they will get their 0.5 win against?

 

[InGoodCo]

Win% vs. yards/game in 2018 college football:
View attachment 5497

The # of yards per game your offense produces explains about 30% of the variability in your win%.

Win% vs. Pts/game:
View attachment 5498

Pts/game explains about 50% of your win% (duh, how much you want to bet that pts allowed/game explains about 50% as well?).

So clearly scoring points means more than just getting yards.

To no one's surprise, average Margin of Victory is a great predictor of Win%:
View attachment 5499

MOV can explain 86% of the win% variation. But it is not perfect. NW has a +1 MOV and 64% win% (88% in B1G). ND had a +13.2 MOV and 92% win%. Iowa had a better MOV, 13.4, but only a 69% Win%.

It is just common sense that points matter more than yards. But, of course yards tend to predict points.
View attachment 5500

Yards/game explains 80% of the variance in pts/game. You can see Iowa is above the curve, scoring as many points as a team that averages about 40-50 more yards per game.

So to the point at hand, OF COURSE points matter more, so we shouldn't dismiss Iowa scoring effectively just because their yards/game is less than stellar. But if they gain more yards, they would be expected to score more points.

What we should really be doing is judging how many points they score per drive compared to how many they would be expected to score based upon starting field position and strength of defense. Luckily, football outsiders does that for us. Based upon this metric, Iowa is 48th in the country. In the B1G, they are behind (in order): OSU, Mich, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, PSU, and Wisconsin. So Iowa is 8th. Lots of room for improvement.

The good news is that in terms of defensive efficiency, they were 7th nationally, and 2nd in the B1G (behind MSU).

And if the offense gets more yards, they will tend to put the defense in better field position, yielding even fewer points (of course, punting is huge here as well).

I can't wait to see Fryowa shit a gold bar now, that's how it works right?

 

[SteveGarvey1]

The BTN guys are hanging their hats on seeing #4 Wisconsin prior to last season and then stating they weren't close to being the fourth best team in the country. I could have told you that without seeing one of their practices. Their quarterback couldn't throw a football at even an average level.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

I give you one example. 5 years ago at Minnesota we ran all over them...but couldn't score touchdowns. Loss.

 

[trj]

Win% vs. yards/game in 2018 college football:
View attachment 5497

The # of yards per game your offense produces explains about 30% of the variability in your win%.

Win% vs. Pts/game:
View attachment 5498

Pts/game explains about 50% of your win% (duh, how much you want to bet that pts allowed/game explains about 50% as well?).

So clearly scoring points means more than just getting yards.

To no one's surprise, average Margin of Victory is a great predictor of Win%:
View attachment 5499

MOV can explain 86% of the win% variation. But it is not perfect. NW has a +1 MOV and 64% win% (88% in B1G). ND had a +13.2 MOV and 92% win%. Iowa had a better MOV, 13.4, but only a 69% Win%.

It is just common sense that points matter more than yards. But, of course yards tend to predict points.
View attachment 5500

Yards/game explains 80% of the variance in pts/game. You can see Iowa is above the curve, scoring as many points as a team that averages about 40-50 more yards per game.

So to the point at hand, OF COURSE points matter more, so we shouldn't dismiss Iowa scoring effectively just because their yards/game is less than stellar. But if they gain more yards, they would be expected to score more points.

What we should really be doing is judging how many points they score per drive compared to how many they would be expected to score based upon starting field position and strength of defense. Luckily, football outsiders does that for us. Based upon this metric, Iowa is 48th in the country. In the B1G, they are behind (in order): OSU, Mich, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, PSU, and Wisconsin. So Iowa is 8th. Lots of room for improvement.

The good news is that in terms of defensive efficiency, they were 7th nationally, and 2nd in the B1G (behind MSU).

And if the offense gets more yards, they will tend to put the defense in better field position, yielding even fewer points (of course, punting is huge here as well).

Similar to but not quite the same as points per possession in basketball.

 

[CP87]

Similar to but not quite the same as points per possession in basketball.

The thing with yards/game, not only does a higher # predict more points, but I would guess it puts your defense in better position as well (both with regard to field position and TOP).

Of course, that is assuming that increasing your yds/game does not adversely effect TO margin, which it might (taking bigger chances to get more yards could equal coughing it up more).

As a final point, I absolutely agree with @Fryowa that total offense needs to be better (400+ yds/game at least), but that should not be the first metric we use in judging a team's offensive success.

 

[Fryowa]

Win% vs. yards/game in 2018 college football:
View attachment 5497

The # of yards per game your offense produces explains about 30% of the variability in your win%.

Win% vs. Pts/game:
View attachment 5498

Pts/game explains about 50% of your win% (duh, how much you want to bet that pts allowed/game explains about 50% as well?).

So clearly scoring points means more than just getting yards.

To no one's surprise, average Margin of Victory is a great predictor of Win%:
View attachment 5499

MOV can explain 86% of the win% variation. But it is not perfect. NW has a +1 MOV and 64% win% (88% in B1G). ND had a +13.2 MOV and 92% win%. Iowa had a better MOV, 13.4, but only a 69% Win%.

It is just common sense that points matter more than yards. But, of course yards tend to predict points.
View attachment 5500

Yards/game explains 80% of the variance in pts/game. You can see Iowa is above the curve, scoring as many points as a team that averages about 40-50 more yards per game.

So to the point at hand, OF COURSE points matter more, so we shouldn't dismiss Iowa scoring effectively just because their yards/game is less than stellar. But if they gain more yards, they would be expected to score more points.

What we should really be doing is judging how many points they score per drive compared to how many they would be expected to score based upon starting field position and strength of defense. Luckily, football outsiders does that for us. Based upon this metric, Iowa is 48th in the country. In the B1G, they are behind (in order): OSU, Mich, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, PSU, and Wisconsin. So Iowa is 8th. Lots of room for improvement.

The good news is that in terms of defensive efficiency, they were 7th nationally, and 2nd in the B1G (behind MSU).

And if the offense gets more yards, they will tend to put the defense in better field position, yielding even fewer points (of course, punting is huge here as well).

I can't wait to see Fryowa shit a gold bar now, that's how it works right?

If you read my post, I never said total yards is the sole predictor of success. I mentioned total offense (among other statistical categories) as one of several. The reason this discussion came about was because I disagreed with the statement that 31.2 PPG (conference) is good enough and that the "offense doesn't need to improve much." When you end the season one game over .500 with a defense that's top 3 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, and pass defense efficiency, 31.2 PPG is patently not good enough. Even if you score 60 points a game and finish 5-4 your offense is not good enough.

 

[Fryowa]

As a final point, I absolutely agree with @Fryowa that total offense needs to be better (400+ yds/game at least), but that should not be the first metric we use in judging a team's offensive success.

To be fair, I didn't say it was. What I did say, maybe unclearly, is that PPG being at an arbitrary benchmark that @FirstDownHawkeyes declared to be good enough (33 PPG), is not an indicator that the offense doesn't need to improve.

 

[pootspot]

Listen...they just came off the shiny new toy at Nebraska. Now that they are off their knees in front of Scott Frost, their initial comparison is going to be Stanley vs. Martinez. Is it really that surprising that they did the ole, geez, it was a bad day for Nate routine?

Let me tell you...if Phil Parker knows what he's talking about (he does) and he is singling out Daviyon Nixon as a player...then you throw Golston, Lattimore, Nixon, and AJE at Stanley in a given practice...well...I'm willing to bet no one looks good against those four...one of them is going to get pressure every play.

Dinardo can be an idiot and he's throwing darts half the time...he's bound to get something right eventually...but I hardly think seeing one practice gives you much...other than whether teams look the part. The one glaring thing is that they said Iowa was just throwing short stuff all day...there you have it. KF being KF...nothing on film for anyone.

Listen, I don’t really give a flip about what the BTN homers say off of 1 practice. But at this point NS should be flourishing in this O and the backups should be getting plenty of run so they are ready just in case.

KF saying he needs to calm down and settle is very disturbing and speaks volumes to NS nervous mental makeup and explains the shitty play that happens WAY more then it should for a NFL prospect who has 4 years in the same system.

I want him to dominate but I just have this feeling he is who he is and it’s 100% mental. This season rides on him stepping out of that mental mindset and growing.

None of us know until the games start but this feels like the same old same. It’s time to be the man Stan

 

[Fryowa]

Listen, I don’t really give a flip about what the BTN homers say off of 1 practice. But at this point NS should be flourishing in this O and the backups should be getting plenty of run so they are ready just in case.

KF saying he needs to calm down and settle is very disturbing and speaks volumes to NS nervous mental makeup and explains the shitty play that happens WAY more then it should for a NFL prospect who has 4 years in the same system.

I want him to dominate but I just have this feeling he is who he is and it’s 100% mental. This season rides on him stepping out of that mental mindset and growing.

None of us know until the games start but this feels like the same old same. It’s time to be the man Stan

I’ve kinda kept quiet on all the fanboy hype about Stanley getting drafted, but so far the kid doesn’t have the intangibles that it takes to play Sundays. He’s a deer in the headlights and visibly turtles up. His coaches have even said as much when they talk about his play under pressure. Stats are one thing, but not shitting your Huggies when things go south on you is numero uno if you want to play pro ball.

Take CJ Beathard. Or Drew Tate. Or Stanzi. Those guys had liquid nitrogen in their veins. If they had half of Stanley’s mechanical talent they’d be multiple-year starters in the NFL. Nate is the opposite, he’s got the physical and mental requirements, but he’s not a cold blooded football player.

John Randle said he instantly knew if a rookie QB was going to make it in the league based on how he reacted when D lineman and linebackers were throwing F-bombs and talking shit about his mother, especially to guys who had never been outside a prep school atmosphere.

You think it’s bad now, what do you think will happen when an Aaron Donald or Akiem Hicks blindsides him out of nowhere?

He could definitely be different this year, but as of yet there’s no evidence to say one way or another.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I'm sure there are examples of them being right and wrong through the years.

The bottom line is that they saw one (1) practice.

Also, much of that practice if not all was inside the facility sec to the weather. I don't know if or how much that plays a part but could.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

And it wasn't even a fully padded practice. It is hard to really get a feel for things when guys are just doing drills and you haven't watched them in many months. Iowa is rarely going to jump out at you as these unbelievable athletic type guys but look at what the coaches are teaching these guys. Tons of fundamentals, little details, no BS and working hard. I am sure at the end KF didn't have them go to mid field and play bull in the ring either to stroke egos.

When I saw the comment about Stanley being solid what else is he going to look like? He isn't going to run all around guys and be flashy with his legs. I am sure the coaches didn't have him line up on the goal line and show the BTN guys how far he could throw it or have BF riding in a golf cart with a garbage can on the back seeing if Stanley could put it in.

So much of football is based off the little things and making the correct adjustments to what is happening in the game and knowing situations. As a network they need to sell the hype and by them saying that Iowa will be a solid team and in the race for the West is what I expected. That is one thing the conference has going for it is parity and they want to push that agenda in my opinion, it is good for business.

This is all you ask a QB to be in this offense. That and just don't turn the ball over.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Listen, I don’t really give a flip about what the BTN homers say off of 1 practice. But at this point NS should be flourishing in this O and the backups should be getting plenty of run so they are ready just in case.

KF saying he needs to calm down and settle is very disturbing and speaks volumes to NS nervous mental makeup and explains the shitty play that happens WAY more then it should for a NFL prospect who has 4 years in the same system.

I want him to dominate but I just have this feeling he is who he is and it’s 100% mental. This season rides on him stepping out of that mental mindset and growing.

None of us know until the games start but this feels like the same old same. It’s time to be the man Stan

We need the Nathan Stanley that just pummeled Ohio St two yrs ago. He was confident, he was making plays. He played about as loose as I'd ever seen him that game. Where is that player week in and week out! He needs to be set free.

 

[4thngoal]

Cp87 is in the zone!

Nate will be fine . Everyone is anxious to get the season started. Everyone says he has control and is a leader. I think KF meant that Nate needs to just play. If a play goes well, ok, forget it and on to the next play. If it goes bad, ok, on to the next play. It's his SR year and he should just live in the moment. Which coincidentally is a good idea for any player.