StatelineHawk
Well-Known Member
I think you are pretty close.
Big Ten Bracket Simulator
- Thread starter 99topdawg
- Start date
D
DDThompson
Guest
So from what I see Iowa is a top4 if we go 3-1
if we go 2-2 for 12-8 it’s less than 50-50 of a top4 seed. More like 30-40%
if we go 2-2 for 12-8 it’s less than 50-50 of a top4 seed. More like 30-40%
STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
Going straight chalk simulator, tonight's game is YUUUGE!!
Beating MSU - even if lose to PudState - pushes Hawks to the 4 seed. Double-bye, with VERY favorable competition against Minny / Debby / Wiscy, then facing Maryland in the semi's.
Lose to Sparty - even if beat PudState (same record) - drops Hawks to 5 seed and having to play on Thursday. Should beat either Minny or Debby but then have to play f-ing Michigan State - who ALWAYS gets the calls in the BIG-14 tourney.
It's a big hill tonight. Let's hope they don't get "Izzo'd" (
- Yea, right! It's the BIG10-ish at Breslin! )
Beating MSU - even if lose to PudState - pushes Hawks to the 4 seed. Double-bye, with VERY favorable competition against Minny / Debby / Wiscy, then facing Maryland in the semi's.
Lose to Sparty - even if beat PudState (same record) - drops Hawks to 5 seed and having to play on Thursday. Should beat either Minny or Debby but then have to play f-ing Michigan State - who ALWAYS gets the calls in the BIG-14 tourney.
It's a big hill tonight. Let's hope they don't get "Izzo'd" (
- Yea, right! It's the BIG10-ish at Breslin! )
Dadman
Well-Known Member
Going straight chalk simulator, tonight's game is YUUUGE!!
Beating MSU - even if lose to PudState - pushes Hawks to the 4 seed. Double-bye, with VERY favorable competition against Minny / Debby / Wiscy, then facing Maryland in the semi's.
Lose to Sparty - even if beat PudState (same record) - drops Hawks to 5 seed and having to play on Thursday. Should beat either Minny or Debby but then have to play f-ing Michigan State - who ALWAYS gets the calls in the BIG-14 tourney.
It's a big hill tonight. Let's hope they don't get "Izzo'd" (
Yep, they got Izzo'd.............
random thoughts-
Flip the Illinois game, and we get double bye, let it stand, we are #5.........that assumes, of course, all else goes as predicted.
Noticed that the "bubble watch" feature on ESPN now has Iowa as a lock, where before the MSU game we were still "should be in"........not sure I understand that particular logic, but we should have been a lock when we achieved 10 wins......
Yep the 5 seed is looking likely for Iowa if they can beat PSU and Purdue. And that isn't a bad draw playing the Nebraska/Minnesota winner on Thursday afternoon after they've played a Wednesday night game.
Watch out for PSU. They had a nice little stretch where they were hitting a lot of 3s which is a great combo for how they play D but they're not a good 3 point shooting team and they've come back to Earth over the the last few games. If Iowa beats them on Saturday all of the sudden PSU is going to have to beat MSU to avoid getting themselves in the 5/6/7 seed territory.
Last edited:
Dadman
Well-Known Member
it would be nice to be 13-7 to finish up, I was so hoping they would pull the MSU game off, and for 3/4 of the game, it almost appeared to be possible. Still, even 2-1 to finish up would be a great achievement, even though we would need help to be in a double bye situation. I just don't think this team has the depth to play 4 games in 4 days.......
Motigerhawk
Well-Known Member
Regardless of where we land, this season has exceeded my expectations. And without players we were counting on to be contributors.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
If we go 3-0 we get a double bye. If we go 2-1 we almost certainly play Thursday. We have to win the 2 home games to be sure we stay on that NCAA 6 line. That’s actually the NCAA seed I prefer at this point...unless we can get to a 3.
Dadman
Well-Known Member
There is a way if we go 2-1 that we still maintain the double bye, but that still requires winning at IL-annoy, and with the assumption that all else is constant, which it won't be. I clicked on some website where someone had calculated about 10 teams at 12-8, and the seeding formula was complex, to say the least. Kinda makes me wonder who the hell has time to play around with W-L's to that extent to come up with these probabilities.
And I agree about the NCAA seed, but its going to take a good if not great showing in the BTT to achieve anything less than a 5-6 I would think.
Provided Iowa wins 2 of their last 3 (knock on wood), what do you think it will take in the BTT to maintain that 6 in the NCAA?
Odds are looking like Minnesota/Nebraska winner on Thursday and a difficult game Friday regardless of seed. Obviously difficult to win, but great opportunity at another quality win on a neutral floor.
I hate to do this, but I justify it would be the same to actually root for any B1G team, but we need to pull for Michigan St. to beat Penn St. on the road. I do think that PSU has some issues right now between Lamar Stevens and the rest of the team and those things dont usually get better overnight. Stevens is by far their best player, but, he is not good enough to win games all by himself and if he continues to not pass to the ball to open teammates and show he has trust in them, they will lose. So if I were betting right now, I would bet on MSU to win that game. The other major games need to go as scripted in the simulator.
eveningnewsteam
Well-Known Member
Hawks win out. End up the 3 seed
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Assuming 2-1 they just have to win Thursday of BTT to stay a 6 I suspect. I’m not even sure they have to win Thursday. CJ’s injury should be taken into account as it relates to our losses. See my next post.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
The Big 10 is by far the best conference in the country. We are 10-7. CJ didn't play in the road games at PSU, NE, IN and MSU. I think we win at least 2 and probably 3 of those if he plays. And I think we would have won the Big 10.
If everyone is healthy going into the NCAA Tournament I think it is probable that we make it to the Sweet 16. And I won't be shocked if we go further.
We probably would have beat San Diego State if it hadn't been back to back days. I think DePaul and Purdue were outliers.
Just my opinion... And the 3 seed in our region is getting hosed by the NCAA.
If everyone is healthy going into the NCAA Tournament I think it is probable that we make it to the Sweet 16. And I won't be shocked if we go further.
We probably would have beat San Diego State if it hadn't been back to back days. I think DePaul and Purdue were outliers.
Just my opinion... And the 3 seed in our region is getting hosed by the NCAA.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
If we win the 2 home games, but lose to Illinois and MSU is able to beat PSU at PSU, then we'd get the #4 seed if the rest stays chalk.
This! With Wisconsin as our likely opponent.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Okay. Let’s make this happen. We play Illinois at 6 p.m. the last day of the season. We can just relax knowing the double bye is in hand.
Dadman
Well-Known Member
A rematch with Gard's Gonad Grabber! Wear the extra strength cup boys!
