We need to win out. If we win out AND Wisconsin wins out, so be it. But we need to win out. 11-1 gets, at worst, Citrus Bowl, because if we win out and Wisky wins out, it means PSU is at 3 losses minimum, so put them in the "Welcome to Tampa!" file.
MSU will lose to Michigan and O$U, so send their asses to San Diego or Nashville. A Michigan loss to O$U leaves them with 2 losses and Rose Bowl, with Wiscy going to NY6 if they make the B1G CG and lose. OR...we could end up getting a NY6.
But in ANY scenario where we win out, Citrus Bowl is the worst we will do, and we're pretty much out of the Rose Bowl for at least a few years barring making the CFP. And the CFP is not happening this year as long as there are $EC teams with less than 2 losses.
Oddly enough, Forde or some ESPN hack said we are one of 3 B1G teams still in contention for CFP. Obviously, on paper only. But...winning out at least means we don't really "care" which bowl we get, because we know it will be a pretty damn good one.