Big 10 Title...a 3 team race

[WindsorHawk]

Assumptions – It’s a 3 team race for the championship. All 3 teams will go undefeated at home the rest of the way. Michigan is still a .500 level team on the road and will split the road games at Indiana and Purdue…still the same team that really should have lost at Nebraska.

Michigan State (7-0)
Michigan W
@ Iowa L
Penn State W
@ Wisconsin L
Northwestern W
Nebraska W
@ Purdue W
@ Michigan L
Illinois W
Iowa W
@ Ohio State L

Michigan (6-0)
@ MSU L
Purdue W
@ Indiana W
Nebraska W
@ Iowa L
@ Ohio State L
Wisconsin W
Michigan State W
@ Purdue L
Minnesota W
@ Illinois W
Indiana W

Iowa (4-2)
@ NW W
Michigan State W
@ Illinois W
Ohio State W
Michigan W
@ Penn State W
@ Indiana W
Wisconsin W
@ Minnesota L
Purdue W
@ MSU L
Illinois W

IMO – We have already played 3 of our 5 toughest road games…thus the win streak. I suspect Michigan State will win 1 of those 4 road games…probably Wisconsin. I still think Michigan will lose 5 or 6 conference games. In then end it's MSU 15-3 -- Iowa 14-4 -- Michigan 13-5.

 

[ibahawkeye]

Wisconsin is still in it. Although they have lost 1 game at home... they by far have the easiest schedule.

 

[deanvogs]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

 

[ssckelley]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

I agree, hard to call this conference a 3 team race with 2 teams having yet to lose a game. It is going to come down to who can win on the road and so far Iowa is 1-2 on the road. Iowa needs to take care of the Wildcats on Saturday or you can forget about any shot at a B1G title. If Iowa can accomplish this and knock off MSU at home then we can look at the standings to see if Iowa is in the race. From there the schedule does not get any easier for Iowa.

 

[fsanford]

Assumptions – It’s a 3 team race for the championship. All 3 teams will go undefeated at home the rest of the way. Michigan is still a .500 level team on the road and will split the road games at Indiana and Purdue…still the same team that really should have lost at Nebraska.

Michigan State (7-0)
Michigan W
@ Iowa L
Penn State W
@ Wisconsin L
Northwestern W
Nebraska W
@ Purdue W
@ Michigan L
Illinois W
Iowa W
@ Ohio State L

Michigan (6-0)
@ MSU L
Purdue W
@ Indiana W
Nebraska W
@ Iowa L
@ Ohio State L
Wisconsin W
Michigan State W
@ Purdue L
Minnesota W
@ Illinois W
Indiana W

Iowa (4-2)
@ NW W
Michigan State W
@ Illinois W
Ohio State W
Michigan W
@ Penn State W
@ Indiana W
Wisconsin W
@ Minnesota L
Purdue W
@ MSU L
Illinois W

IMO – We have already played 3 of our 5 toughest road games…thus the win streak. I suspect Michigan State will win 1 of those 4 road games…probably Wisconsin. I still think Michigan will lose 5 or 6 conference games. In then end it's MSU 15-3 -- Iowa 14-4 -- Michigan 13-5.

Michigan won at Wisconsin, Michigan won at Minnesota, as it stands now Iowa has yet to beat a top half of the conference team on the road based on current stands. So Michigan is ahead of the curve beating 2 good teams on the road.

Will see if Ohio State can right the ship, but if they cannot score at a better clip than they are now, do not see them beating MSU or Michigan at home.

If Michigan pulls off a win this Saturday against MSU, hard to see them not winning the regular season. They have more depth than I thought, their starting point guard Walton only played 3 minutes due to the flu, and they still did not miss a beat.

 

[hawkstats1979]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

Iowa is 1 back from Michigan if Iowa wins the return trip, and I don't think there's any way Michigan walks out of Iowa City with a win. To make it a 3-team race, Iowa needs to (1) not pee down its leg against NW this weekend like Illinois and Indiana did and (2) beat Michigan State and @Illinois next week. Then the two-game stretch against OSU and Michigan could be program-defining.

 

[PCHawk]

Assumptions – It’s a 3 team race for the championship. All 3 teams will go undefeated at home the rest of the way. Michigan is still a .500 level team on the road and will split the road games at Indiana and Purdue…still the same team that really should have lost at Nebraska.

Michigan State (7-0)
Michigan W
@ Iowa L
Penn State W
@ Wisconsin L
Northwestern W
Nebraska W
@ Purdue W
@ Michigan L
Illinois W
Iowa W
@ Ohio State L

Michigan (6-0)
@ MSU L
Purdue W
@ Indiana W
Nebraska W
@ Iowa L
@ Ohio State L
Wisconsin W
Michigan State W
@ Purdue L
Minnesota W
@ Illinois W
Indiana W

Iowa (4-2)
@ NW W
Michigan State W
@ Illinois W
Ohio State W
Michigan W
@ Penn State W
@ Indiana W
Wisconsin W
@ Minnesota L
Purdue W
@ MSU L
Illinois W

IMO – We have already played 3 of our 5 toughest road games…thus the win streak. I suspect Michigan State will win 1 of those 4 road games…probably Wisconsin. I still think Michigan will lose 5 or 6 conference games. In then end it's MSU 15-3 -- Iowa 14-4 -- Michigan 13-5.

That's funny, I was going to ask if someone would create a post with the top teams schedule to make it easy for everyone to keep track. Maybe you could edit your post and put Wisconsin in too?

I really can't decide who to root for in the Michigan MSU game. Probably Michigan I guess. Based on your predictions we would need Michigan to win.

 

[enmaster]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

If the teams tie in the standings, they share a title no matter the head-to-head records.

 

[volhawk50]

One thing is beginning to look likely: Iowa may be eliminated from the Big Ten tournament by a team from the state of Michigan for the 7th year in a row.

 

[TChawk]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

bingo Iowa is out of the race for winning the big ten

 

[PCHawk]

We have already played 3 of the top 4 road games this year. Of the 2 Michigan teams, Michigan has played one against Wisconsin and MSU hasn't played any yet. We are 2 games down but we have a big advantage because of that. If we win the next 3 we will either be tied for second 2 games back, or 3rd but only one game back. The dream is still alive!

 

[HawkMD2007]

It's always easiest to put a game in the win column before we play it...one key injury (Fran hits Marble accidently with a chair) and the whole thing changes.

 

[Xerxes]

Iowa is 1 back from Michigan if Iowa wins the return trip, and I don't think there's any way Michigan walks out of Iowa City with a win. To make it a 3-team race, Iowa needs to (1) not pee down its leg against NW this weekend like Illinois and Indiana did and (2) beat Michigan State and @Illinois next week. Then the two-game stretch against OSU and Michigan could be program-defining.

Interesting to see this or something like this posted so much since the game ended last night. I also saw a post stating that Iowa will win by double digits in Carver.

Maybe its just me but Michigan looks to have the best player in the conference right now that lit up Wisconsin on the road and speaking of the road, Michigan has beaten two probable NCAA tournament teams on the road already in environments more hostile than Carver.

I think Iowa has a really good team, legit top 15 team which will likely earn them a 4 seed in the tournament at least. But there was never a time during last nights game in which I though, "Iowa is better than Michigan." IMO the better team won last night and until Payne gets 100%, not just playing, Michigan is probably the best team in the B1G.

People thinking that Iowa winning the return game next month is a given might want to pull back. That was a really good team last night that beat Iowa without their starting PG.

 

[greenrocket]

You are seriously predicting that MSU loses to Iowa at Carver? Braver than I am.

We have a shot at beating UM at home...but it will take us clicking on all cylinders for that to happen. The top of this conference is brutal.

 

[hawkeye12345]

One thing is for certain, almost any team in the Big10 can win at home.

No league winner has gone undefeated in the recent past. It's likely that 2 to 4 losses would be expected from the league winner. We are currently sitting with 2 losses. I doubt we go undefeated the rest of the way. I can see us finishing between 2nd and 5th in the conference. Either way, it will garner a top 7 seed in the NCAAs and a good chance of playing a few games there.

We are good, really good. We are deep, really deep. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The only real post-season tournament experience any player on this team has is last years NIT. The players nut sacks need to fall a little farther before we will start winning some close games on the road. All the hype in the world doesn't make up for alligator arms in the final minutes of close games. Winning will fix everything.

We have four (4) tough games coming up in a row. This little stretch (MSU, @ILL, OSU, MICH) will determine if this team has what it takes to compete at the next level. We win 3 of those 4 and this season will be even more exciting come March. We lose 3 of those 4 then we are going to have a tough row to hoe the rest of the way. Confidence is a powerful game changer.

Either way, we are making it to the NCAAs and are going to make a splash once there. Conference championships are fluff, NCAA bids are what matters for recruiting long-term.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Right now it is a 2 team race.

 

[WindsorHawk]

That's funny, I was going to ask if someone would create a post with the top teams schedule to make it easy for everyone to keep track. Maybe you could edit your post and put Wisconsin in too?

I really can't decide who to root for in the Michigan MSU game. Probably Michigan I guess. Based on your predictions we would need Michigan to win.

I thought people might like to see the schedules in one place. I didn't include Wisconsin because their toughest games are MSU, @ Michigan and @ Iowa...listed under the schedules shown. I think they will lose at least 2 and possibly all 3 of those...taking them out of the race despite their scheduling advantage.

I'm pulling for Michigan State because we play them next Tuesday. I want them undefeated coming into that game. It's not the end of the world if Michigan wins. I think Michigan then loses at home to Michigan State later and loses 3 or 4 more.

Remember...Michigan looked like a world beater last year and then came tumbling back to earth. Referencing another thread...If I have Michigan stock I'm selling all of it.

 

[Xerxes]

I thought people might like to see the schedules in one place. I didn't include Wisconsin because their toughest games are MSU, @ Michigan and @ Iowa...listed under the schedules shown. I think they will lose at least 2 and possibly all 3 of those...taking them out of the race despite their scheduling advantage.

I'm pulling for Michigan State because we play them next Tuesday. I want them undefeated coming into that game. It's not the end of the world if Michigan wins. I think Michigan then loses at home to Michigan State later and loses 3 or 4 more.

Remember...Michigan looked like a world beater last year and then came tumbling back to earth. Referencing another thread...If I have Michigan stock I'm selling all of it.

True the was a drop off their their peak at #1, but the fall wasn't too far. I believe they ended the season ranked #10 and a got a 4 seed, advancing all the way to national finals.

I would love for Iowa to take that tumble!

 

[PCHawk]

Right now it is a 2 team race.

Saying its a 2 team race when we have played the tougher schedule is like saying the runner in the inside lane in a 400 dash is going to win before the race before it even starts. All Michigan has to do to even the race is lose at Iowa and at OSU. All MSU has to do is lose at Michigan and at OSU.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Don't get your math, Windsor ... u think UM will lose 5 or 6 but you only have them down for 4 L's?

Agree to disagree ... after last night, it's a 2 team race.
-- UM / MSU will split; that's 1 loss each.
-- Iowa will beat both of them in Carver; that's 2 losses each.
-- No way either loses @ fOSU.
-- No way Mich loses @ Purdue.
-- If Payne is back, no way MSU loses @ Wisky; if he's not back, it's still a toss-up.

They way Stauskas is shooting the ball, Michigan isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. Depending on Payne's return, MSU isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. So, both Michigan and MSU finish with 2 losses with the tie breaker being if MSU wins or loses at Wisconsin.

Truth: Iowa is out of the regular season race because it still has a guaranteed loss at Breslin (3) and, I tend to agree they will lose at Minny (4). Still good enough to finish 3rd, which is what I predicted way back when.*

*(Even tho expected and predicted, I bought the hype and am struggling to accept it. Must abuse NwU and beat Sparty next Tuesday to regain my composure and set sights on NCAA seed.)