Big 10 Title...a 3 team race

[uihawk82]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

We are only down two in the loss column which is the only column to look at.

But that leaves hardly any margin for error for the hawks.

If one wants to think the hawks can win or tie for the title then the game with MSU is a must win.

And they must beat Mich at home

 

[AdamHawk]

Don't get your math, Windsor ... u think UM will lose 5 or 6 but you only have them down for 4 L's?

Agree to disagree ... after last night, it's a 2 team race.
-- UM / MSU will split; that's 1 loss each.
-- Iowa will beat both of them in Carver; that's 2 losses each.
-- No way either loses @ fOSU.
-- No way Mich loses @ Purdue.
-- If Payne is back, no way MSU loses @ Wisky; if he's not back, it's still a toss-up.

They way Stauskas is shooting the ball, Michigan isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. Depending on Payne's return, MSU isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. So, both Michigan and MSU finish with 2 losses with the tie breaker being if MSU wins or loses at Wisconsin.

Truth: Iowa is out of the regular season race because it still has a guaranteed loss at Breslin (3) and, I tend to agree they will lose at Minny (4). Still good enough to finish 3rd, which is what I predicted way back when.*

*(Even tho expected and predicted, I bought the hype and am struggling to accept it. Must abuse NwU and beat Sparty next Tuesday to regain my composure and set sights on NCAA seed.)

I guess I'm just not as sold on Michigan as you are. Yes they are a really good team with the capability of beating anyone in the conference on a given night but I am not convinced that they won't lose where they shouldn't. They've already done that this year (lost to Charlotte) so I'm inclined to believe the'll have a hiccup at some point.

The good thing about Iowa is they have been pretty consistent this year. They haven't had any head scratchers (and hopefully it'll stay that way) and they've shown the ability to not only be competitive in some of the toughest venues in the nation but even close the deal. That said, I don't expect them to beat MSU at Breslin and I agree that they'll probably lose at Minny too.

If I had to call it at this point, I'd say MSU will take the conference but if Nebby, Northwestern and Illinois have taught us anything, it's that you do not take any team in the B10 lightly or you'll get stung. It could easily be wide open in a couple weeks so the Hawks better stay focused.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Bold predictions, that very well could be sot on.

I personally have a hard time calling it a 3 team race when we are 3 games back right now (loss to Mich). If Mich. St. and Michigan lose and come back to us in the loss column, then I will consider us in the race.

We're not 3 back and one of those teams will come back 1 game in the loss column on Saturday.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I agree, hard to call this conference a 3 team race with 2 teams having yet to lose a game. It is going to come down to who can win on the road and so far Iowa is 1-2 on the road. Iowa needs to take care of the Wildcats on Saturday or you can forget about any shot at a B1G title. If Iowa can accomplish this and knock off MSU at home then we can look at the standings to see if Iowa is in the race. From there the schedule does not get any easier for Iowa.

Actually we can look ahead now. It doesn't mean it's right but looking ahead and analyzing all of this stuff is part of the fun for me. It's also why I watch so many Big 10 games...to get an idea of what may happen. Of course 2 weeks from now this whole thing could be turned upside down again...considering how things looked 2 weeks ago.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Interesting to see this or something like this posted so much since the game ended last night. I also saw a post stating that Iowa will win by double digits in Carver.

Maybe its just me but Michigan looks to have the best player in the conference right now that lit up Wisconsin on the road and speaking of the road, Michigan has beaten two probable NCAA tournament teams on the road already in environments more hostile than Carver.

I think Iowa has a really good team, legit top 15 team which will likely earn them a 4 seed in the tournament at least. But there was never a time during last nights game in which I though, "Iowa is better than Michigan." IMO the better team won last night and until Payne gets 100%, not just playing, Michigan is probably the best team in the B1G.

People thinking that Iowa winning the return game next month is a given might want to pull back. That was a really good team last night that beat Iowa without their starting PG.

Michigan's supporting cast got a lift from the home crowd last night. That was obvious IMO. Even if Carver is tame that lift won't be there for Michigan. I'm not as impressed with Michigan as others. I may be wrong. We'll all know one way or the other in a few weeks.

Late in the game I actually made the comment "How are we within 3 right now?" That's when I started thinking to myself we will beat them at Carver. We're making a game of this and we are doing very little right and they're doing very little wrong.

 

[WindsorHawk]

True the was a drop off their their peak at #1, but the fall wasn't too far. I believe they ended the season ranked #10 and a got a 4 seed, advancing all the way to national finals.

I would love for Iowa to take that tumble!

They got hot in the tournament. Someone does every year. I'm hoping it's us this year...but there are lot of candidates out there.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Saying its a 2 team race when we have played the tougher schedule is like saying the runner in the inside lane in a 400 dash is going to win before the race before it even starts. All Michigan has to do to even the race is lose at Iowa and at OSU. All MSU has to do is lose at Michigan and at OSU.

I agree...including the 400 yard dash comparison.

 

[kicker22]

Don't get your math, Windsor ... u think UM will lose 5 or 6 but you only have them down for 4 L's?

Agree to disagree ... after last night, it's a 2 team race.
-- UM / MSU will split; that's 1 loss each.
-- Iowa will beat both of them in Carver; that's 2 losses each.
-- No way either loses @ fOSU.
-- No way Mich loses @ Purdue.
-- If Payne is back, no way MSU loses @ Wisky; if he's not back, it's still a toss-up.

They way Stauskas is shooting the ball, Michigan isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. Depending on Payne's return, MSU isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. So, both Michigan and MSU finish with 2 losses with the tie breaker being if MSU wins or loses at Wisconsin.

Truth: Iowa is out of the regular season race because it still has a guaranteed loss at Breslin (3) and, I tend to agree they will lose at Minny (4). Still good enough to finish 3rd, which is what I predicted way back when.*

*(Even tho expected and predicted, I bought the hype and am struggling to accept it. Must abuse NwU and beat Sparty next Tuesday to regain my composure and set sights on NCAA seed.)

By no means am I disagreeing with you on any of this, but how is it "Truth" when its nothing but speculation? And because its speculation and we have no idea how the season plays out, there is no way to say that Iowa is out of the race.

While I agree with what you are referring to, let's not use phrases like "Truth" when its nothing more then speculation that has no truth or merit at this point in the season. It's nothing more than opinion.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Don't get your math, Windsor ... u think UM will lose 5 or 6 but you only have them down for 4 L's?

Agree to disagree ... after last night, it's a 2 team race.
-- UM / MSU will split; that's 1 loss each.
-- Iowa will beat both of them in Carver; that's 2 losses each.
-- No way either loses @ fOSU.
-- No way Mich loses @ Purdue.
-- If Payne is back, no way MSU loses @ Wisky; if he's not back, it's still a toss-up.

They way Stauskas is shooting the ball, Michigan isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. Depending on Payne's return, MSU isn't going to lose where it shouldn't. So, both Michigan and MSU finish with 2 losses with the tie breaker being if MSU wins or loses at Wisconsin.

Truth: Iowa is out of the regular season race because it still has a guaranteed loss at Breslin (3) and, I tend to agree they will lose at Minny (4). Still good enough to finish 3rd, which is what I predicted way back when.*

*(Even tho expected and predicted, I bought the hype and am struggling to accept it. Must abuse NwU and beat Sparty next Tuesday to regain my composure and set sights on NCAA seed.)

I started with the assumptions I was applying. I ended with my opinion. Ohio State has 1 home loss this year. One of these 2 if not both are likely to lose at Ohio State IMO. Wisconsin has 1 home loss this year. A Michigan State win is far from guaranteed...even if they are 100%.

Stauskas shooting isn't likely to slip but could with the extended minutes he's force to play. As for the way the rest of the team is playing see Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, etc. I think Michigan will come back to earth soon.

My prediction has been my signature since last April...won't change unless Iowa gets a 5th loss or is officially eliminated from contention for 2nd before getting a 5th loss.

 

[HawksMN]

I agree more than 4 losses in the conf and its over.

I also agree Iowa MUST win its next 3 games (two on the road) to finish the first 1/2 at 7-2.
MUST, MUST, MUST beat MSU at home. Or its over. Plus that would be a huge signature win. Have to have, no, ifs, ands, or butts, about it.

 

[bcl20]

I think MSU runs away with it at this point but the fact is winning on the road in this sport is so freaking hard that it's hard to even get excited about road games so who know what will happen.

 

[Tierney]

I agree more than 4 losses in the conf and its over.

I also agree Iowa MUST win its next 3 games (two on the road) to finish the first 1/2 at 7-2.
MUST, MUST, MUST beat MSU at home. Or its over. Plus that would be a huge signature win. Have to have, no, ifs, ands, or butts, about it.

Iowa is 4 and 2 right now, and if they finish 12and 6 they will be in the NCAA tournament which is more important. I think its a two way race right now, but Iowa could win the conference tournament. Iowas sophomore class is maturing more and more with every game. Woodbury looked pretty good last night. Gesell is getting better, and Uthoff is finally getting use to playing in games. By the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, Iowa should be a team that nobody would want to play. Its a progression, and Iowa is progressing.

 

[PCHawk]

The good thing about Michigan (unless you're Michigan) is they rely heavily on one player. When Stauskas has an off night they can lose to about anyone.

 

[kicker22]

I think MSU runs away with it at this point but the fact is winning on the road in this sport is so freaking hard that it's hard to even get excited about road games so who know what will happen.

Not sure, I wasn't overly impressed with them at home against Indiana earlier this week. Not saying they aren't good, but I didn't see anything that made me think they had the conference locked up. Way too much season left. I love college basketball.

 

[Cydkar]

I think MSU runs away with it at this point but the fact is winning on the road in this sport is so freaking hard that it's hard to even get excited about road games so who know what will happen.

Not in a runaway. Not healthy enough.

 

[glidinghawk]

I think Iowa will lose one game at Carver, just not sure which one.

I also think they will lose at least 3 more road games.

So, 13-5 at best and 12-6 is likely in my opinion. A 12-6 record will garner a tie for third place probably.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I think Iowa will lose one game at Carver, just not sure which one.

I also think they will lose at least 3 more road games.

So, 13-5 at best and 12-6 is likely in my opinion. A 12-6 record will garner a tie for third place probably.

I just can't see a home loss. If anyone was going to do it I figured it would be Michigan State but they're just too beat up right now...not the team I thought would be coming to Carver.

 

[kicker22]

This race just got a lot more interesting with Dawson's injury.

 

[hawkinn3]

I think it is a lot more wide open than 3 teams. Michigan and MSU are the class of the B1G this year, that much is clear and Iowa has a decent shot if they win out. But, Minnesota and Wisconsin have a valid shot as well. I think every team gets at least 2 more losses if not more. Iowa finishing anymore from 2nd to 6th would not shock me. Tough conference.

 

[HawkIPA]

Iowa should be favorites in their next 8 games. I think they win all eight and go to the Barn in February with only 2 conference losses. If that happens they will be in no worse than a tie for 1st place.

@NU
MSU
@Illinois
OSU
Michigan
@PSU
@Indy
Wisky


Then Iowa finishes with @Minny, Purdue, @MSU, Illinois.

Win the first 8 which will be favored in and at worst go 2-2 in the last 4.