Back to Back Magic: Can Iowa Make the Dance?

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa didn't make a field goal in the last 7:29 and beat the 15th ranked team in the nation.

File that away under things you haven't read in a long, long time.

The Hawkeyes got up by double-digits in the first half, led by nine at intermission and moved the lead to 13 points before taking the air out of the ball late and hanging on to beat the Badgers 67-66 in front of more than 14,000 fans in a rowdy Carver-Hawkeye.

For the second straight game, Matt Gatens flat went crazy. He didn't miss a field goal in the first half, including 4 of 4 from long range. He would make his first three-point attempt in the second half, which gave him a streak of 12 straight three-pointers made dating back to the Indiana game on Sunday. Gatens was 7-10 from three for the second straight game. Dating back to his second half 5-7 three-point shooting performance against Penn State, he has made 19 of his last 27 three-point shots.

He finished with 33 points, three more than he scored against Indiana. He is the first Big Ten player to score 30 or more in back to back games against Top 25 foes since 1996-1997. He is the first Iowa player to get 30 or more in back to back games since Adam Haluska in 2006-2007. Haluska made 15-27 three-point shots during that two game stretch against Indiana and Minnesota. In his past two games, Gatens has scored 63 points, is 22-for-36 from the floor (61.1%) and is 14 of 20 on three's (70%). In Big Ten play, he is 39-81 from three. That's Kent McCausland territory. More on Matt in a bit.

Devyn Marble hit two clutch free-throws late and scored 11 points to go along with a career best 8 assists. Melsahn Basabe played another good game for Iowa with great energy, getting five points and five rebounds to go along with three blocks. He was much better than the stat sheet. Aaron White scored 12 for Iowa and grabbed six rebounds.

Gatens is playing the best basketball of his career and is a zone few Iowa players have ever been in during the three-point era. He has the look of someone who can smell a post-season bid. While myself and others don't believe there is much chance for Iowa to to make it to this year's NCAA tournament, Matt doesn't seem to have gotten that memo. I will circle back around to this talk in a few paragraphs.

This was the sixth time in Big Ten play where Iowa had a double-digit first half lead on a conference foe. That happened at home against Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana and then Thursday night against Wisconsin. It also happened on the road at Purdue. Iowa is 4-2 in those games.

Iowa now has four wins over ranked opponents this season, as many as they had the past five seasons combined. Fran McCaffery now has wins against five ranked teams in less than two years on the Iowa bench. Iowa has strung together back to back wins against ranked teams for the first time since the 2006-2007 Hawkeyes, and that team won a Big Ten tournament title. Iowa now has seven conference wins for the first time since 2006-2007.

This has truly been a season of breaking out of a rut, rebuilding expectations and laying a foundation for the future of this program.

Iowa's four wins against ranked conference teams trails only Michigan State (6), Ohio State and Michigan (5). The Spartans and Buckeyes are in the hunt for a #1 seed in the Big Dance and Michigan should do now worse than a #3 seed.

The Hawkeyes are now 15-13 overall and 7-8 in the best conference in the nation. National pundits like Seth Davis and Doug Gottlieb have been tweeting about having a chance to play their way into the NCAA tournament, this year. I have dismissed such talk this week, most likely out of not wanting to 'open up' that much and believe that could be a possibility.

Yet, here they are with a resume over the past two months that is better than several teams who will get at large bids come selection Sunday.

What does Iowa have to do to make it to the Big Dance this year? Win...win em all. At least, win the rest of their regular season games.

If Iowa can win at Illinois, who may be playing the worst basketball of any team in the Big Ten right now, if they can win at Nebraska and then win their home finale against Northwestern, that would get them to 18-13. Their RPI would probably be somewhere in the 80's at that point, but their Big Ten conference record of 10-8 would make things real, real interesting. They'd also need to win the first game of the Big Ten tournament.

If they can string together wins in the next four games, then there will be real drama on selection Sunday for the first time since the 2004-2005 season, where Iowa snuck in as a 10 seed with a sub .500 Big Ten record and their athletic director as head of the NCAA selection committee. If they didn't get into the dance at say 19-14, then they will be one of the last four left out; I believe it would be that close. If they win the next three and then win two in the Big Ten tournament, and get to 20-14? I think they'd make the field as long as total carnage does not ensue in the mid-major conference tournaments. Anything less than a 3-0 finish the rest of the way would probably be fatal to their hopes.

That's what has to happen. Do I think it will happen? No, I do not. While Illinois is playing like a team that has given up, Iowa has won exactly once in their building since 1987. So I will believe they'll win in Assembly Hall after I see it. But if they do...I might start to believe in their chances.

However, I am already a big believer in Fran McCaffery. Carver-Hawkeye hasn't rocked like that since the 2005-2006 season. The students were fantastic and Iowa needs to figure out a way to get them there all of the time. Perhaps free tickets year round isn't going to happen, but it makes such a big difference when they are there in large numbers.

Winning is the ultimate ticket marketing campaign, and this program is doing just that.
 
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While Illinois is playing like a team that has given up, Iowa has won exactly once in their building since 1987.

I believe 1999 was the last time Iowa won @Illinois. I'm not sure if they will win there this year, but it had been even longer (1994-95) since Iowa had swept Wisconsin, and we have done that. So who knows? I agree that if Iowa can win @Illinois, then I will start to think that there's a real possibility that Iowa can win out the regular season, and then maybe do some damage in the BTT.

Finally is nice to be talking about GOOD things Iowa has done for the first time since 19xx.. Rather than "first time we've lost this or that since 19xx" like we were doing under Lick. Nice turnaround!
 
what was our halftime lead at Minnesota? I think we can lose to Illinois winthe rest and 2 in the BTT and have a shot. that would mean we beat another ranked team.
 
Big Dance talk is still crazy. This is the same team that lost back to back games on the road to NW and Penn State, so beating Illinois and Nebraska on the road does not seem realistic.
 
I think it is more likely that Iowa wins the BTT than wins 5 straight to end the year.

If Iowa goes to the dance, I'll post a picture of my butt.

But, I'll say this, it is AWFULLY FUN to care.
 
Big Dance talk is still crazy. This is the same team that lost back to back games on the road to NW and Penn State, so beating Illinois and Nebraska on the road does not seem realistic.

I agree with this. Way too inconsistent although if you want to dream, to each their own. I will say this has been a very enjoyable bb season so far simply because the team is pesky. Great win tonight. Enjoyed it.
 
Even if we win out, we'd probably at minimum need to make semi's in big ten tournament with a win over msu/osu/mich. And even then I believe we'd be real nervous selection sunday, our RPI is horrible and we may need to make the championship game to feel safe come that sunday. How bad do we regret neb and campbell loss at home how different it would be if we just took care of business against crappy teams at home.
 
Big Dance talk is still crazy. This is the same team that lost back to back games on the road to NW and Penn State, so beating Illinois and Nebraska on the road does not seem realistic.

It's only crazy if there is a zero percent chance. I think the chances are remote, but if they win their next three and then the opening round of the Big Ten tourney, they will be talked about as a bubble team by everyone in the biz.
 
I agree with this. Way too inconsistent although if you want to dream, to each their own. I will say this has been a very enjoyable bb season so far simply because the team is pesky. Great win tonight. Enjoyed it.

NCAA, NIT or whatever.. I am enjoying this season because of the obvious progress being made. There's life coming back to the program again. It's really that simple.
 
I'll keep holding on to the dream of the Dance until it's extinguished. I won't be getting on the ledge if/when that happens, but I'm going to keep hoping until it's not possible.

If we actually do make it, Gatens may very well put himself up on Chris Street's level in terms of being a true Hawkeye. Is he the greatest player? No. But if he continues like this and wills this team to the Dance in his last year (after everything he's been through here), Chris is the only player who might have him beat in the greatest Hawkeye department.
 
Even if we win out, we'd probably at minimum need to make semi's in big ten tournament with a win over msu/osu/mich. And even then I believe we'd be real nervous selection sunday, our RPI is horrible and we may need to make the championship game to feel safe come that sunday. How bad do we regret neb and campbell loss at home how different it would be if we just took care of business against crappy teams at home.

If Iowa wins their next three and then two in the Big Ten tourney, to get to the semi's, that would mean wins against three ranked teams in their final 10 games and a record of 7-3 in their last 10, as well as a 10-8 record in the best conference in the nation. That would get them in. I dont think it will happen tho
 
Big Dance talk is still crazy. This is the same team that lost back to back games on the road to NW and Penn State, so beating Illinois and Nebraska on the road does not seem realistic.

+1
This team is way worse defensively on the road and shoots probably a good 10% poorer on the road. They also have more turnovers. True, Illinois is playing poor and we owe Nebby one, but I'll believe it when I see it.

One good thing is there are no more byes in the schedule. This is a momentum team and they do worse after they take time off. Twice now this year they've snoozed after the bye week.
 

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