Are you willing to give FM credit?

[The Big LeHAWKski]

I'm withholding judgement until this time next year.
Lots of youth on the team still developing. Plus some STRONG recruits set to hit the floor next season.
All I want for Christmas (next year) is an all-conf level point guard in Black & Gold.

 

[lightning1]

I'm withholding judgement until this time next year.
Lots of youth on the team still developing. Plus some STRONG recruits set to hit the floor next season.
All I want for Christmas (next year) is an all-conf level point guard in Black & Gold.

This is how I look at it.
2016-17, we had 3 FR, a SO and a SR starting. With another FR and 2 SOs getting plenty of mins.
2017-18, we have 3 SOs, a FR and a JR starting with a FR, a SO and 2 JRs getting plenty of mins
Next year, we'll start 2 FR (Connor/JW) 1 SO and 2 JRs. With 1 SR and nothing but SOs and JRs getting mins.
So, this team won't look all that much more experienced than this year or last. I really don't see an NCAA tournament team next year. Especially if Cook leaves.

 

[83Hawk]

Not really replying to your comment here, 83Hawk.... why does your status show "Banned"? John? Rob?

Actually, I kind of like it.

 

[PCHawk]

This is how I look at it.
2016-17, we had 3 FR, a SO and a SR starting. With another FR and 2 SOs getting plenty of mins.
2017-18, we have 3 SOs, a FR and a JR starting with a FR, a SO and 2 JRs getting plenty of mins
Next year, we'll start 2 FR (Connor/JW) 1 SO and 2 JRs. With 1 SR and nothing but SOs and JRs getting mins.
So, this team won't look all that much more experienced than this year or last. I really don't see an NCAA tournament team next year. Especially if Cook leaves.

If freshmen take starter roles, it means they are upgrades over what we have now. So while the experience level will only increase a little, talent level should increase even more.

 

[earlkoppelman]

If freshmen take starter roles, it means they are upgrades over what we have now. So while the experience level will only increase a little, talent level should increase even more.

Much credit for getting us out of HUUGE crater yes.Now a Win today says we will fight.Remember Hawks are tough.Must start at top with STAFF no. Yo Pray for surf huh?

 

[PCHawk]

Much credit for getting us out of HUUGE crater yes.Now a Win today says we will fight.Remember Hawks are tough.Must start at top with STAFF no. Yo Pray for surf huh?

That's what I was thinking too.

 

[lightning1]

If freshmen take starter roles, it means they are upgrades over what we have now. So while the experience level will only increase a little, talent level should increase even more.

If that were true, that would have been the case this year, right?

 

[PCHawk]

If that were true, that would have been the case this year, right?

Well this year we lost our best player. Next year we don't. That doesn't explain the huge drop off, but it explains some. This is how I explain the rest. Every team has a window for how they are capable of playing, with a floor and a ceiling. For whatever reason, this team is playing at their floor level. If this team played at their average level, they would be an average team (give or take).

So next year, if our window is slightly higher, and we play closer to our average, we will be at least a bubble team. If they play above their average, they will be in easy.

If you believe all of what I just said, let me ask you this. Do you think a team that returns all of its players is more likely to play in that same level of their window that they did the year before? Meaning since this team played at their floor level this year, do you think they will more than likely play at their floor level again next year? Or is it just as likely they will start with a fresh start and how they played last year will have no influence on this year? I'm not sure what I think of that.

 

[earlkoppelman]

That's what I was thinking too.

Again huuge game today.Am in N.california so can't go,but anywhere close "Its a fade" Big for all yes.Hawks tough yep.

 

[PCHawk]

Again huuge game today.Am in N.california so can't go,but anywhere close "Its a fade" Big for all yes.Hawks tough yep.

For sure.

 

[CJHawkeye]

So fucked up that we're talking about needing a win against Nebraska... in basketball.

 

[PCHawk]

So fucked up that we're talking about needing a win against Nebraska... in basketball.

If we were undefeated, we would still need a win. If we were on the bubble, we would still need a win. If we were firmly in, we would still need a win for seeding. This situation is about as unimportant as it gets for needing a win. I'd say that is the fucked up part. That we don't even really "need" a win right now.

 

[lightning1]

Well this year we lost our best player. Next year we don't. That doesn't explain the huge drop off, but it explains some. This is how I explain the rest. Every team has a window for how they are capable of playing, with a floor and a ceiling. For whatever reason, this team is playing at their floor level. If this team played at their average level, they would be an average team (give or take).

So next year, if our window is slightly higher, and we play closer to our average, we will be at least a bubble team. If they play above their average, they will be in easy.

If you believe all of what I just said, let me ask you this. Do you think a team that returns all of its players is more likely to play in that same level of their window that they did the year before? Meaning since this team played at their floor level this year, do you think they will more than likely play at their floor level again next year? Or is it just as likely they will start with a fresh start and how they played last year will have no influence on this year? I'm not sure what I think of that.

I think that if a team is coached in the fundamentals of offense and defense, they will get better as they gain experience. This group of players does nothing fundamentally well. They don't get coached to play defense or they don't care to play defense. This team is not athletic. Not even close to athletic enough to compete in the BIG conference. That means they have to do the little things so much better than everyone else. They don't.
Now that I have answered your question, you can answer mine. When was the last time you have seen a team this undisciplined, shrug that problem off? An undisciplined player rarely corrects that flaw over a 4 year period.
Lack of discipline + lack of athleticism does not equal a BIG title or a NCAA tourney run.

 

[PCHawk]

I think that if a team is coached in the fundamentals of offense and defense, they will get better as they gain experience. This group of players does nothing fundamentally well. They don't get coached to play defense or they don't care to play defense. This team is not athletic. Not even close to athletic enough to compete in the BIG conference. That means they have to do the little things so much better than everyone else. They don't.
Now that I have answered your question, you can answer mine. When was the last time you have seen a team this undisciplined, shrug that problem off? An undisciplined player rarely corrects that flaw over a 4 year period.
Lack of discipline + lack of athleticism does not equal a BIG title or a NCAA tourney run.

Your answer is more about a team improving their window from one year to the next. Not whether they could improve in their same window. They clearly aren't that good this year, but they clearly are underperforming even for them. My question is do you think just becasue they underperformed last year compared to their ability, are they more likely to underperform next year too, all things being equal? They can still have bad fundamentals and be poorly coached, and everything else you want to say, and still play better than they have this year.

To answer your question, I think players improve on being disciplined all the time as they get older. It probably happens more often than not actually.

 

[lightning1]

Your answer is more about a team improving their window from one year to the next. Not whether they could improve in their same window. They clearly aren't that good this year, but they clearly are underperforming even for them. My question is do you think just becasue they underperformed last year compared to their ability, are they more likely to underperform next year too, all things being equal? They can still have bad fundamentals and be poorly coached, and everything else you want to say, and still play better than they have this year.

To answer your question, I think players improve on being disciplined all the time as they get older. It probably happens more often than not actually.

They can play better than they have this year, especially with Connor and JW playing. Not enough to take a 13 or 14 win team to 23 or 24 wins. No way! I'd set the over/under for next year's team at 20 wins. 17 games, if Tyler Cook leaves.

 

[PCHawk]

They can play better than they have this year, especially with Connor and JW playing. Not enough to take a 13 or 14 win team to 23 or 24 wins. No way! I'd set the over/under for next year's team at 20 wins. 17 games, if Tyler Cook leaves.

That's probably a pretty friendly number actually.

 

[lightning1]

That's probably a pretty friendly number actually.

I think Connor and JW can have a big effect on how this team plays but there are several "ifs" associated with that. JW needs to play the 3 or as the 3rd guard in a 3 guard line up. He and Connor need to play 30 mins each and they had better play their tails off on the defensive end. If Fran rolls out a Connor, JW, Baer, Pemsl, Garza type of line up, they won't win 17 games.

 

[GotTimDodge]

How the hell can anybody be so sure JW will just come in next year and be a star?

 

[OkstHawk]

They can play better than they have this year, especially with Connor and JW playing. Not enough to take a 13 or 14 win team to 23 or 24 wins. No way! I'd set the over/under for next year's team at 20 wins. 17 games, if Tyler Cook leaves.

I'll take the under, how much are we betting? I'll put 5k on it now.

 

[BigD]

Funny how a few of the pollyannas on here are so quick to shine Fran's pole over beating the worst WI team in 20 years. That same team who had 2 of their best players out from injury and playing a guard who basically had 1 arm. Iowa played better, but WI certainly helped out by missing an ungodly amount of lay ups. Fran gets no credit until we beat someone with a pulse, and addresses the recruiting failures he's 100% responsible for.

I am sure everyone knows how I feel about Barta, Kirk, and Fran. The whole gang could be flushed as far as I am concerned. I am not as shocked as some as I saw this coming a while ago and was attacked (mildly) by a few when Insuggested that Fran might be a high mid major coach at best. The failure to recruit an

How the hell can anybody be so sure JW will just come in next year and be a star?

That’s all Hawkeyes fans have (very similar to Iowa State in football) because no one in the AD department expects or demands excellence, they do however pay for it.