Anthony Nelson Going to the NFL

[kicker22]

There are other reasons why a player might declare early. They don't like college. The only reason they enrolled is for this opportunity. They are not on schedule towards their degree and are not eligible to play their SR year (Fred Russell). These guys go to school with regular students. Regular students that get loans and manage to get their degrees. They all know they can come back and finish their degrees later or finish them on line, on schedule, while they chase their dreams. I'm not sure how or why their reasons got pigeon holed into either/or. Why is it a huge mistake to leave early? I don't understand this line of reasoning. Under some circumstances, I could see it being a mistake but those circumstances are unlikely.

So in the case they are chasing their dreams and they fail to make it or find themselves dropping well below where they were anticipating and had the opportunity to play one more year in college to continue to work toward making that dream a reality you don't think they could view that as a huge mistake?

Maybe "huge mistake" is rather harsh, but the link stated approximately 35% of the early entrants didn't get drafted. I'm sure that there are those in that like you said had other reasons for declaring, but if its me and I love the sport and see it as my dream job, but also loved playing collegiately and left because I was told that I'd get taken in the first 3 rounds and either go undrafted or fall well below where I was told I'd end up then I'd be crushed that I gave up that last year. Sure I'm not everyone else, but if I came up short and it didn't pan out it, then I can honestly say in the back of my mind, that the decision to leave early could haunt me for the rest of my life. Regardless of how things played out.

And sure they can always come back to finish their degrees, but to a lot of them being a student athlete may have meant more to them and once that eligibility is lost coming back to get that degree may be meaningless.

 

[lightning1]

So in the case they are chasing their dreams and they fail to make it or find themselves dropping well below where they were anticipating and had the opportunity to play one more year in college to continue to work toward making that dream a reality you don't think they could view that as a huge mistake?

Maybe "huge mistake" is rather harsh, but the link stated approximately 35% of the early entrants didn't get drafted. I'm sure that there are those in that like you said had other reasons for declaring, but if its me and I love the sport and see it as my dream job, but also loved playing collegiately and left because I was told that I'd get taken in the first 3 rounds and either go undrafted or fall well below where I was told I'd end up then I'd be crushed that I gave up that last year. Sure I'm not everyone else, but if I came up short and it didn't pan out it, then I can honestly say in the back of my mind, that the decision to leave early could haunt me for the rest of my life. Regardless of how things played out.

And sure they can always come back to finish their degrees, but to a lot of them being a student athlete may have meant more to them and once that eligibility is lost coming back to get that degree may be meaningless.

The NFL drafts according to production and potential. How much can a 21 yr old starter move up a draft board by playing 1 more season? Unless he was injured and never really showed his potential, I don't see the extra year as being worth the risk. Not so much that it's a mistake either way. Hooker has started 2 full seasons. Same as A Nelson. They could get a little stronger by staying. It's not likely they will get any more athletic. Any faster. I'd sing a different tune if Hooker had only played half of 1 season by the end of his JR year and then he decided to leave for the draft. But that's not the case for most of these players that put their names in. Will some of them have regrets? Of course. That's life. Your 40 yr old self wouldn't make the same decisions as your 20 yr old self. That's where regrets come from. Seeing things after the fact, with the benefit of wisdom from age and experience. I don't blame any of them.

 

[4thngoal]

The NFL drafts according to production and potential. How much can a 21 yr old starter move up a draft board by playing 1 more season? Unless he was injured and never really showed his potential, I don't see the extra year as being worth the risk. Not so much that it's a mistake either way. Hooker has started 2 full seasons. Same as A Nelson. They could get a little stronger by staying. It's not likely they will get any more athletic. Any faster. I'd sing a different tune if Hooker had only played half of 1 season by the end of his JR year and then he decided to leave for the draft. But that's not the case for most of these players that put their names in. Will some of them have regrets? Of course. That's life. Your 40 yr old self wouldn't make the same decisions as your 20 yr old self. That's where regrets come from. Seeing things after the fact, with the benefit of wisdom from age and experience. I don't blame any of them.

Strength and another year of learning the craft are a huge deal. How many guys get drafted and start right away? They usually spend at least another year getting bigger, stronger and learning from the sidelines.
In that regard they can easily move up the board, because the closer they are to starting (first round) the more they are expected to push for starting time right away.

 

[Adam]

So in the case they are chasing their dreams and they fail to make it or find themselves dropping well below where they were anticipating and had the opportunity to play one more year in college to continue to work toward making that dream a reality you don't think they could view that as a huge mistake?

Maybe "huge mistake" is rather harsh, but the link stated approximately 35% of the early entrants didn't get drafted. I'm sure that there are those in that like you said had other reasons for declaring, but if its me and I love the sport and see it as my dream job, but also loved playing collegiately and left because I was told that I'd get taken in the first 3 rounds and either go undrafted or fall well below where I was told I'd end up then I'd be crushed that I gave up that last year. Sure I'm not everyone else, but if I came up short and it didn't pan out it, then I can honestly say in the back of my mind, that the decision to leave early could haunt me for the rest of my life. Regardless of how things played out.

And sure they can always come back to finish their degrees, but to a lot of them being a student athlete may have meant more to them and once that eligibility is lost coming back to get that degree may be meaningless.

Noone knows beforehand whether it's a good decision or bad one. There is no definitive answer for that until much further down the road.

What these guys are doing is using credible feedback to get a realistic perspective. Everyone of these guys know there is no guarantee. They are having faith and betting on themselves. I don't blame a single one of them. As a fan though the early departures always hurt my feelings. I am always sad to see them go. On the positive side that eases away next September.

In Fant's case I'm neither suprised or angered, but I am sad on multiple fronts. Sad to see him go and sad that he was not more invested in the program while he was here. It saddens me to think the possibility exists that Fant will either not want to or will not be invited to return to Iowa and be commemorated.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

OSU last year was a clue. HIdden among 9 losses past 2 years.

Purdue says, "Hi-ya"

 

[lightning1]

Strength and another year of learning the craft are a huge deal. How many guys get drafted and start right away? They usually spend at least another year getting bigger, stronger and learning from the sidelines.
In that regard they can easily move up the board, because the closer they are to starting (first round) the more they are expected to push for starting time right away.

Not multi year college starters. If I'm an NFL GM that's got 2 years worth of D-1 film on a player, that's more than enough to make an informed decision, when added to height/weight/speed/bench/shuttle. I would assume, anyway.

 

[4thngoal]

Not multi year college starters. If I'm an NFL GM that's got 2 years worth of D-1 film on a player, that's more than enough to make an informed decision, when added to height/weight/speed/bench/shuttle. I would assume, anyway.

So you are saying you are just as confident in HS somphmore or Jr recruit as you are offering a sr?

Noone knows beforehand whether it's a good decision or bad one. There is no definitive answer for that until much further down the road.

What these guys are doing is using credible feedback to get a realistic perspective. Everyone of these guys know there is no guarantee. They are having faith and betting on themselves. I don't blame a single one of them. As a fan though the early departures always hurt my feelings. I am always sad to see them go. On the positive side that eases away next September.

In Fant's case I'm neither suprised or angered, but I am sad on multiple fronts. Sad to see him go and sad that he was not more invested in the program while he was here. It saddens me to think the possibility exists that Fant will either not want to or will not be invited to return to Iowa and be commemorated.

Faith?? But not enough faith to play in a bowl game?
Not enough faith they can finsh college and still go pro?
Faith in what exactly?

 

[lightning1]

So you are saying you are just as confident in HS somphmore or Jr recruit as you are offering a sr?


Faith?? But not enough faith to play in a bowl game?
Not enough faith they can finsh college and still go pro?
Faith in what exactly?

The physical maturity is different. Much bigger leap between high school years than there is between early 20 year olds. I gained 30 lbs and 3 inches between my JR and SR of high school. Stupid premise.

 

[4thngoal]

The physical maturity is different. Much bigger leap between high school years than there is between early 20 year olds. I gained 30 lbs and 3 inches between my JR and SR of high school. Stupid premise.

I would bet that they gain 20 after being drafted.
Wasn't it Melvin Gordon (one of Wisconsin's backs) that gained like 40?
But you think that a kids football knowledge and honing of his craft does not improve?
Not to mention, you said it was based on potential.
Wouldn't you rather have a better idea of said potential with another year of film? Also, knowing say a team had an easy schedule and their sos sucked for a year or even two or they played in a conference that really isn't so good at defense, you think you can judge said projection and potential very accurately?

 

[lightning1]

I would bet that they gain 20 after being drafted.
Wasn't it Melvin Gordon (one of Wisconsin's backs) that gained like 40?
But you think that a kids football knowledge and honing of his craft does not improve?

I picked 1 former Iowa player off the top of my head, Anthony Hitchens. Listed weight at the NFL combine was 240 lbs. Currently listed on the KC Chiefs roster at 235 lbs. Lol. He actually lost weight.

 

[Adam]

So you are saying you are just as confident in HS somphmore or Jr recruit as you are offering a sr?


Faith?? But not enough faith to play in a bowl game?
Not enough faith they can finsh college and still go pro?
Faith in what exactly?

Faith in making it. Wasn't that obvious?

 

[4thngoal]

I picked 1 former Iowa player off the top of my head, Anthony Hitchens. Listed weight at the NFL combine was 240 lbs. Currently listed on the KC Chiefs roster at 235 lbs. Lol. He actually lost weight.

Collectively I would say most gain weight.
Plus we all know that kids are not 6'1 on a recruiting profile, then 6'4 as a freshman in college either. I would take those reported numbers for what they are worth. Granted different positions probably fudge a little more than others. It's easier to say a wr or defensive back is 5-10 pounds either way than to say a lineman is 25 pounds either way.
165 to 175 is easier to fudge than 275 to 300.
Not to mention I have seen "super fast" runners get run down from behind by much "slower" players and vise versa.

Faith in making it. Wasn't that obvious?

So they have faith in themselves?
But they have no faith that if they stay another year they will make it? No faith that they won't get hurt in a bowl game? Idk but I don't think that's how faith works. I understand things that are out of ones control such as an injury, (you can get injured at any time doing anything, yes I understand risk) I also understand that one could slide way down or not go drafted at all, which is also not in their control.
Faith in a report about where they are projected?
How often are those projections correct?
Please clarify if its mis guided faith or just partial faith?
Do you not think that most schools pump the ego and say pretty much whatever to get a kid to commit?
Wouldn't that be misguided faith?
Do you think agents do that?
I think if one is going to claim they have faith in themselves, than they do. I don't think it's a wishy washy thing one can claim, when it comes to faith.
Probably why once you declare, your college career is done.

 

[lightning1]

Collectively I would say most gain weight.
Plus we all know that kids are not 6'1 on a recruiting profile, then 6'4 as a freshman in college either. I would take those reported numbers for what they are worth. Granted different positions probably fudge a little more than others. It's easier to say a wr or defensive back is 5-10 pounds either way than to say a lineman is 25 pounds either way.
165 to 175 is easier to fudge than 275 to 300.
Not to mention I have seen super fast runners get run down from behind by much slower players and vise versa.

So they have faith in themselves?
But they have no faith that if they stay another year they will make it? No faith that they won't get hurt in a bowl game? Idk but I don't think that's how faith works. I understand things that are out of ones control such as an injury, (you can get injured at any time doing anything, yes I understand risk) I also understand that one could slide way down or not go drafted at all, which is also not in their control.
Faith in a report about where they are projected?
How often are those projections correct?
Please clarify if its mis guided faith or just partial faith?
Do you not think that most schools pump the ego and say pretty much whatever to get a kid to commit?
Wouldn't that be misguided faith?
Do you think agents do that?
I think if one is going to claim they have faith in themselves, than they do. I don't think it's a wishy washy thing one can claim, when it comes to faith.
Probably why once you declare, your college career is done.

I'm not supposed to trust the "reported numbers" but I am supposed to trust your numbers? Only 1 of these 2 options has access to the players and it ain't YOU! Forgive me if I choose to go with the only option that has access. I'll leave this conversation with this: It's their decision. If they end up regretting it, that's on them. It won't be the only regret they end up with in life. I can guarantee you that much.

 

[kicker22]

Noone knows beforehand whether it's a good decision or bad one. There is no definitive answer for that until much further down the road.

What these guys are doing is using credible feedback to get a realistic perspective. Everyone of these guys know there is no guarantee. They are having faith and betting on themselves. I don't blame a single one of them. As a fan though the early departures always hurt my feelings. I am always sad to see them go. On the positive side that eases away next September.

In Fant's case I'm neither suprised or angered, but I am sad on multiple fronts. Sad to see him go and sad that he was not more invested in the program while he was here. It saddens me to think the possibility exists that Fant will either not want to or will not be invited to return to Iowa and be commemorated.

I totally get the argument and the process. What I'm saying is that since Fant declared its been a never ending debate about it being a "no brainer" to leave early for the money if the projection is that of 1st-3rd round selection. 35% of last years early entrants went undrafted. I totally get the process, but I'm also guessing that those that went undrafted also had "credible feedback". While I'm sure that they are exposed to a lot of information, and that the information is very credible, I'm simply not sure that it's as much as a no brainer as it's being made out to be.

 

[kicker22]

I should go on the record that I'm totally in favor of players leaving early for whatever reason.

 

[Jonrn]

What really sucks is that the LB spots are just as much of a word scramble as they were before this past season other than maybe Niemann. I think it was a huge mistake to let a year go by (purposely or not) where you made zero progress establishing a unit between those guys. I think a lot of the success B Niemann, Jewell, and Bower had was because they had played together for 3 years. It's either a coaching shortcoming to let it get to this point, or a recruiting fail that we don't have 3 clear cut starters by now.

Add that together with a somewhat iffy new D-line + losing Hooker + OJ being your most experienced secondary starter = bad juju.

Good thing it's Phil Parker trying to sort it out and not Brain.

I think Niemann and Colbert playing together have a lot of potential, then whoever takes hookers spot in the nickel.

 

[4thngoal]

I'm not supposed to trust the "reported numbers" but I am supposed to trust your numbers? Only 1 of these 2 options has access to the players and it ain't YOU! Forgive me if I choose to go with the only option that has access. I'll leave this conversation with this: It's their decision. If they end up regretting it, that's on them. It won't be the only regret they end up with in life. I can guarantee you that much.

Any ding dong can see that a kid does not go from 6'2 to 6'0.
But you are right, only way to tell for sure is to see it for yourself.
I didn't offer any real numbers, so whatev.
Your argument was potential and that you could tell by a year or two of tape. I simply said I seriously doubt that and pointed out why I doubt that.
Spotting things like talent and potential are not as easy as you make it sound. You don't just look at a little tape and a bio (which varies from site to site) and go yup I think I will offer him/her a scholarship or contract for millions.
Then again without looking, I have to wonder if you have been on the side of what's wrong with a school
Sending out 300 offers. Am I right? I'm not even going to look, I will take you at your word on the answer to that.

It is their choice absolutely. I wish them well. I have no argument with that. If I did I would just be an asshole and I'm not.

 

[lightning1]

Any ding dong can see that a kid does not go from 6'2 to 6'0.
But you are right, only way to tell for sure is to see it for yourself.
I didn't offer any real numbers, so whatev.
Your argument was potential and that you could tell by a year or two of tape. I simply said I seriously doubt that and pointed out why I doubt that.
Spotting things like talent and potential are not as easy as you make it sound. You don't just look at a little tape and a bio (which varies from site to site) and go yup I think I will offer him/her a scholarship or contract for millions.
Then again without looking, I have to wonder if you have been on the side of what's wrong with a school
Sending out 300 offers. Am I right? I'm not even going to look, I will take you at your word on the answer to that.

It is their choice absolutely. I wish them well. I have no argument with that. If I did I would just be an asshole and I'm not.

I'm discussing this in the context of an NFL GM. It's certainly not an exact science, even for highly paid scouting professionals. They make educated guesses based on the best information they have. I think they put far more stock in the measurable numbers than game film, honestly. But that allows them to take a LB with a Ray Lewis type of NFL Combine workout and hope they are drafting a Ray Lewis type of LB. That's how a Anthony Hitchens, a Dez King or a Micah Hyde slip through the cracks. All of them ran "sub par 40 yard dash" times, by NFL standards. All 3 were later round draft picks because of it.
As for schools sending out 300 offers? I don't believe for a minute that those offers are commitable for any but a handful of those 300 athletes. Schools use them as a "hello card". These coaches know they don't have to honor those offers. It's like fishing with a net vs a pole. I don't have a problem with either approach but I prefer to fish with a pole, looking for a certain kind of fish. But that's just me.

 

[Robowe]

This is an interesting article from 22 years ago. Peyton Manning decided to stay in school (Tennessee). Some of the names in the article are fun as well.

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/03/06/...chool-leaving-the-jets-to-look-elsewhere.html

 

[Adam]

Collectively I would say most gain weight.
Plus we all know that kids are not 6'1 on a recruiting profile, then 6'4 as a freshman in college either. I would take those reported numbers for what they are worth. Granted different positions probably fudge a little more than others. It's easier to say a wr or defensive back is 5-10 pounds either way than to say a lineman is 25 pounds either way.
165 to 175 is easier to fudge than 275 to 300.
Not to mention I have seen "super fast" runners get run down from behind by much "slower" players and vise versa.

So they have faith in themselves?
But they have no faith that if they stay another year they will make it? No faith that they won't get hurt in a bowl game? Idk but I don't think that's how faith works. I understand things that are out of ones control such as an injury, (you can get injured at any time doing anything, yes I understand risk) I also understand that one could slide way down or not go drafted at all, which is also not in their control.
Faith in a report about where they are projected?
How often are those projections correct?
Please clarify if its mis guided faith or just partial faith?
Do you not think that most schools pump the ego and say pretty much whatever to get a kid to commit?
Wouldn't that be misguided faith?
Do you think agents do that?
I think if one is going to claim they have faith in themselves, than they do. I don't think it's a wishy washy thing one can claim, when it comes to faith.
Probably why once you declare, your college career is done.

Lol you're on a tangent bro. First most of our early departures did play in the bowl game and played spectacularly. Second and I hope this is not confusing. A person could easily have faith in their ability, but lack faith in the things that they can not control. I.E. being able to play a Senior season and remain injury free.

I don't know if you have ever been around this level of football, but 80% of the young men you see out there are playing through some varying severity of injury.