6th through 8th in the Big Ten

W

WindsorHawk

Well-Known Member
It's going to be interesting. Tomorrow is a big game for both Illinois and Minnesota.


Minnesota (5-5)
IL
WI
@ IA
@ OSU
IN
PSU
@ NE
@ PU

Iowa (4-7)
@ PSU
MN
@ NE
PU
@ IN
IL
NE

Illinois (3-7)
@ MN
PU
@ NW
PSU
@ MI
NE
@ IA
@ OSU
 
Does winning 5 of the next 7 get us in? Or would we have to win a conference tourney game or two???




WindsorHawk said:
It's going to be interesting. Tomorrow is a big game for both Illinois and Minnesota.


Minnesota (5-5)
IL
WI
@ IA
@ OSU
IN
PSU
@ NE
@ PU

Iowa (4-7)
@ PSU
MN
@ NE
PU
@ IN
IL
NE

Illinois (3-7)
@ MN
PU
@ NW
PSU
@ MI
NE
@ IA
@ OSU
Click to expand...
 
We have to get 7...doesn't matter how IMO. I know some don't think that's enough but we will be ahead of MN, IL or both in the standings which has to help a ton IMO.
 
WindsorHawk said:
We have to get 7...doesn't matter how IMO. I know some don't think that's enough but we will be ahead of MN, IL or both in the standings which has to help a ton IMO.
Click to expand...

And I think two of them need to be against Indiana and Minnesota. Wins against Purdue, Ped State, and Nebraska aren't going to drastically improve our RPI rank of 92.
 
jkriv said:
Does winning 5 of the next 7 get us in? Or would we have to win a conference tourney game or two???
Click to expand...

I think 9-9, with a win over Minnesota or Indiana puts us close but just out. But I could see us getting in depending on the bubble. The other bubble teams resume's aren't too great either.
 
bcl20 said:
I think 9-9, with a win over Minnesota or Indiana puts us close but just out. But I could see us getting in depending on the bubble. The other bubble teams resume's aren't too great either.
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Maybe not now, but they've got something that we don't: opportunities. We have to beat Indiana to be considered anything more than a weak bubble team (Minnesota won't be enough). A lot of the current bubble teams will have opportunities to get a signature win that we won't have because our schedule is stacked with Ped State and Nebraska.
 
jkriv said:
Does winning 5 of the next 7 get us in? Or would we have to win a conference tourney game or two???
Click to expand...

There are plenty of threads discussing this, most feel Iowa needs to win 7 more. Personally I think 6 more wins gets Iowa into the tournament between the conference and BTT. IMO I think the committee will look at a 9-9 Iowa team and take into consideration all the close losses they have had. Their job is to get the best 37 at large teams into the tournament and if Iowa can take care of business against the teams they are supposed to beat they can get in.
 
I really hope the committee doesn't overvalue RPI as much as you seem to be.

I still don't see how we aren't in at 10-8 (at the very least, the argument that we are a weak bubble team at 10-8 just doesn't make any sense). We are 34th on Kenpom, which is a way, way better evaluator than RPI

Plus, while great wins help, bad losses hurt just the same. We have avoided those thus far and in the 10-8 scenario, we will go the wholes season with no/ or maybe one debatable bad loss.
 
Actually, and I'm really just looking at last 4 in here because I'm not going try to figure out an entire bubble picture in early February.

Arizona State has one opportunity, a road game at Arizona. Doubt they win that. (kind of like Iowa)

Illinois has three tough road games, I don't see them beating Michigan or Ohio State on the road, leaving that game vs Minnesota to be very important.

St. Mary's has a game vs a Creighton team that isn't great and a Gonzaga team that is a lot better than them

And St. Johns plays a bunch of ranked teams but they suck so they won't win most of them if not any of them.
 
bcl20 said:
I really hope the committee doesn't overvalue RPI as much as you seem to be.

I still don't see how we aren't in at 10-8 (at the very least, the argument that we are a weak bubble team at 10-8 just doesn't make any sense). We are 34th on Kenpom, which is a way, way better evaluator than RPI

Plus, while great wins help, bad losses hurt just the same. We have avoided those thus far and in the 10-8 scenario, we will go the wholes season with no/ or maybe one debatable bad loss.
Click to expand...

I've got news for you: they do.
 
RaisinFace said:
And a lot of them won't. And a lot of them have more than one opportunity. We basically have one shot; I'd trade places with them any day.
Click to expand...


If you have the mindset that Minnesota isn't considered a good win then how do you think that a lot of these bubble teams (that are not very good teams) are going to get quality wins (which means teams better then minnesota apparently). Seems like you are assuming a lot of not very good teams are going to beat a lot of really good teams. I know there will be a few but you make it sound like its guaranteed to happen a lot.
 
The RPI is not the deciding factor it does make a difference. I think the highest RPI to make the tournament as an at large was 75. So for Iowa to get into the conversation they need to get their RPI into the 60s.
 
It used to be THE critieria. Now it is one of the variables. Many people still look at it as the defining criteria. It isn't the only thing looked at these days. If Iowa wins 7 of their last 8 with wins over Minnesota and Illinois and then wins 1 in the BTT they will get very serious consideration...make it IMO.

Keep in mind Iowa almost certainly finishes ahead of both Minnesota and Illinois in this scenario. Iowa is also 2-1 head to head against Minnesota and Illinois. It doesn't take long to review our schedule and see the close games we played against multiple ranked teams (IN, MSU, OSU and Wisconsin...plus a win).

RaisinFace said:
I've got news for you: they do.
Click to expand...
 
If we want to stand a chance to get picked over those two teams, then it's simple....beat both of them. That would be a good first step.
 
WindsorHawk said:
It used to be THE critieria. Now it is one of the variables. Many people still look at it as the defining criteria. It isn't the only thing looked at these days. If Iowa wins 7 of their last 8 with wins over Minnesota and Illinois and then wins 1 in the BTT they will get very serious consideration...make it IMO.

Keep in mind Iowa almost certainly finishes ahead of both Minnesota and Illinois in this scenario. Iowa is also 2-1 head to head against Minnesota and Illinois. It doesn't take long to review our schedule and see the close games we played against multiple ranked teams (IN, MSU, OSU and Wisconsin...plus a win).
Click to expand...


It's never been THE criteria...that's why there's been a committee, and not a BCS style selection. But it still is the most significant criterion used, and it takes A LOT to overcome a low RPI. Wins against Minnesota and Indiana might do it. Wins against Minnesota and Illinois will NOT...and that's assuming we take care of business against the scrubs and don't get tripped up against Nebraska or Ped State.

Why does everyone keep bringing Illinois up as an example of a quality win? They're sitting at 3-7 and 9th place in the conference, RIGHT NOW, and 3 of their remaining games are against ranked teams on the road. They are NOT a good team.
 
WindsorHawk said:
I don't think it's us or Illinois/Minnesota. I think it's us plus 1 or both...with 7 more wins.
Click to expand...

Illinois doesn't have a chance. For one thing, Iowa will crush the Illini at Carver, and end up with a 9-9 record.

Illinois will be lucky to go 7-11.

With a win in the BTT, Iowa goes dancing, and the Illini go NIT'ing.
 
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