SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
It doesn't matter who the OC is, there are 3 stats that typically determine the success, or lackthereof, of our offense. We've had successful offenses with balance (2002, 2015), we've had successful offenses being run heavy (2003, 2008), and we've had successful offenses being pass heavy (2004, 2005). But unless we are successful in the following 3 areas, we typically fall flat:
1. Red Zone TD % (coupled with red zone opportunities) - With as many tight games as Iowa is historically involved in under Ferentz, coupled with our lack of big scoring plays, it is always paramount that we convert a large % of our red zone opportunities into TDs. In both 2015 and 2016, we converted 66% of our redzone opportunities into TDs. The difference? In 2016, we only had 41 redzone opportunities....in 2015 we had 54 opportunities. Which leads to my next stat....
2. 3rd down conversion % - For Iowa, what leads to redzone opportunities is sustained drives, as we aren't a big play offense. Drives typically can't be sustained without a good 3rd down conversion %. In 2016, we were one of the worst in the country at 31%. In 2015, we were one of the best at 42%.
3. Turnovers gained - I know this isn't an offensive stat, per se, but turnovers gained by the defense has a direct correlation to an increased number of drives and plays per game. Not to mention, they can typically give you a shorter field to work with, which is gold to an offense that doesn't create a lot of big plays. In 2016, we only gained 16 turnovers. In 2015, we gained 27 turnovers....one of the tops in the country. By the way, turnover margin typically isn't a big determiner for Iowa because of our prowess on defense. In other words, we are one of the best in the country at limiting the number of points per turnover the opposition gets off of our offensive turnovers. For Iowa, the more meaningful stat is turnovers gained.
So, I think in order for us to have a successful offense this year, we need the following to happen:
1. Our defense needs to create approximately 20 turnovers
2. Our offense needs to have a 3rd down conversion % of no less than 39%
3. When we get in the redzone, we need to convert no less than 67% of the opportunities into TDs.
I'll be interested to see how those 3 stats line up in conjunction with how successful our offense is this year....
1. Red Zone TD % (coupled with red zone opportunities) - With as many tight games as Iowa is historically involved in under Ferentz, coupled with our lack of big scoring plays, it is always paramount that we convert a large % of our red zone opportunities into TDs. In both 2015 and 2016, we converted 66% of our redzone opportunities into TDs. The difference? In 2016, we only had 41 redzone opportunities....in 2015 we had 54 opportunities. Which leads to my next stat....
2. 3rd down conversion % - For Iowa, what leads to redzone opportunities is sustained drives, as we aren't a big play offense. Drives typically can't be sustained without a good 3rd down conversion %. In 2016, we were one of the worst in the country at 31%. In 2015, we were one of the best at 42%.
3. Turnovers gained - I know this isn't an offensive stat, per se, but turnovers gained by the defense has a direct correlation to an increased number of drives and plays per game. Not to mention, they can typically give you a shorter field to work with, which is gold to an offense that doesn't create a lot of big plays. In 2016, we only gained 16 turnovers. In 2015, we gained 27 turnovers....one of the tops in the country. By the way, turnover margin typically isn't a big determiner for Iowa because of our prowess on defense. In other words, we are one of the best in the country at limiting the number of points per turnover the opposition gets off of our offensive turnovers. For Iowa, the more meaningful stat is turnovers gained.
So, I think in order for us to have a successful offense this year, we need the following to happen:
1. Our defense needs to create approximately 20 turnovers
2. Our offense needs to have a 3rd down conversion % of no less than 39%
3. When we get in the redzone, we need to convert no less than 67% of the opportunities into TDs.
I'll be interested to see how those 3 stats line up in conjunction with how successful our offense is this year....
