2017 Offensive Predictions

C

CP87

Well-Known Member
Building from deanvogs previous thread on Offensive Hopes, now that the staff is coming together, it might be fun to make some predictions as to what we will see for this coming year. Keep predictions tangible so we can all laugh at how stupid we are when we look back at these (or tout our intelligence if by blind-luck we hit on a couple).

Last year Wadley (1396 yds) and Daniels (1125 yds) accounted for over 2500 yards betwixt them (Joshbrown correctly predicting they would each rush for over 1000). I think we will get similar production from the backfield, with Wadley accounting for over 2000 yds (1500+ rushing, 500+ receiving), and Akinirabe/Young/Bryan accounting for another 500.
 
NEIChawk said:
Better pass blocking results in Stanley's average of 250 yds a game and 2 td's. Iowa will also average 27 pts a game.
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That would be awesome, and it certainly could happen if Wadley can take lots of short passes and turn them into long plays.

As a point of comparison, Stanzi threw for 231/game in 2010, and Vandenberg threw for 232/game in 2011. Tate threw for 232/game in 2004 when our backfield was decimated. I believe those were the highest per game averages of the KF era. Brad Banks threw for 198/game (and ran for another 33/game) during his senior year.
 
If we can get to 28-30 PPG and around 225 YPG passing and 160 YPG rushing (that would put us around 2700 yards passing on the year and 1900 yard rushing)

I say that Akrum goes for around 1300 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving for 1700 total. I think the rest of the backs combine for around 600 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving.

For receiving yards, I could see:

Vandeberg - 800 yard receiving
Jerminic Smith - 500 yards receiving
Fant - 400 yards receiving
Wadley - 400 yards receiving
Other RB - 200 yards receiving
All others - 400 yards receiving
 
In 2010, DJK and McNutt went for 745 and 861, respectively. Vandeberg went for 703 in 2015.

Last year, our leading WRs in terms of productivity were McCarron (517) and Smith (314). If MVB and Smith are over 1300 combined, that would be a huge upgrade, and it seems within the realm of possibility.
 
CP87 said:
In 2010, DJK and McNutt went for 745 and 861, respectively. Vandeberg went for 703 in 2015.

Last year, our leading WRs in terms of productivity were McCarron (517) and Smith (314). If MVB and Smith are over 1300 combined, that would be a huge upgrade, and it seems within the realm of possibility.
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Yep, and if you look back through KOK's history, we got the ball to the WR. This is what we will get back to this year.

01 - Kahil Hill and CJ Jones nearly 1400 yds (Clark over 500)
'02 - Mo Brown and CJ Jones over 1400 yds (Clark with over 700)
'04 - Solomon and Hinkel over 1600 yds
'05 - Solomon and Hinkel over 1300 yds (Chandler over 500)
'06 - Brodel and Douglass over 1300 yds (Chandler nearly 600)
'08 - Brodell and DJK nearly 1200 yds (nearly 800 yds for Myers, Moeaki, Reisner combined)
'09 - DJK and McNutt over 1400 yds (Stross over 400 and Moeaki + Reisner over 500)
'10 - DJK and McNutt over 1600 yds (Reisner over 450)
'11 - McNutt and Keenan Davis over 2000 yds

For the majority of KOK years we had at least 2 WR on the field that could hurt you, and we got them the ball.

Here is what happened to our top 2 WR when GD hit town:

'12 - KMM and Keenan Davis over 1100 Yds
'13 - KMM and T. Smith 698 yds to be exact.
'14 - KMM and T. Smith 1100 yds
'15 - MVB and T. Smith nearly 1300 yds (no shock this was a very good year for us)
'16 - Rliey and J. Smith 831 yds to be exact.

For those who say there is no difference in our offense and KF controls it all, you have to stick your head in the sand to believe this. Under KOK we used the WR as weapons in the passing game.....under GD we did not as a whole. We were never explosive in the passing game except for '15 with GD.
 
It will be interesting to see how MVB and J. Smith match up to the other "top 2's" through the KF era. It seems like they may be one of the weaker duos, but perhaps we have not really seen what Smith is capable of.
 
CP87 said:
It will be interesting to see how MVB and J. Smith match up to the other "top 2's" through the KF era. It seems like they may be one of the weaker duos, but perhaps we have not really seen what Smith is capable of.
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At first glance I would agree but maybe with a new WR coach they can make a jump. MVB is a proven player at this level but J Smith hasn't done much outside of the Illinois game his FR year.

MVB, in my opinion, is a very good player, his problem is that Iowa has very little around him. At most other P5 programs that are above average, he would be the 2nd/3rd best WR on the team (most likely a slot WR). At Iowa, he's been their best WR over the last two seasons and with no other real threats. T Smith in 2015 was playing well but he was hurt for a lot of the season. If Iowa had an even average WR group overall, MVB would be a slot WR and would probably be killing teams over the middle who had to respect Iowa's #1 WR going down the field. Instead DCs can focus on stopping him alone.
 
MVB is a given as a quality receiver and will get his yards. But, "his yards" will, as someone else pointed out, be somewhat reliant on the threat posed by our other receivers. I think that Smith will be pushed hard by some younger guys next fall. Don't know who, but I think with new coaches and new schemes, we will see an increase in the competition. Also, I think with the re-emergence of the tight end game and Wadley or Toks coming out of the backfield, some of the pressure will come off of MVB. IF our new QB is as good as advertised, and with a very experienced coach basically in his corner, I think Iowa's passing game will be greatly improved in 2017.
 
A lot depends on how long Brian has been thinking about his type of offense and how clear he is about deploying it. Is it learn as you go or is he far more mature than his years would indicate? Furthermore, from KOK's remarks, they are yet to even begin constructing the playbook and corresponding terminology. In similar cicumstances, KOK (in his first season at Iowa) produced about 14 ppg and GD produced about 19 ppg. I do believe that Iowa will be much more talented this time around but the question how well these players will end up executing the "new stuff."

In summary, I rely on the gut and predict 10-2 + CCG win + playoff loss.
 
If we find a way to better disguise plays through formation, motion, and personnel, I think we will see a big jump in yards, points...even running virtually the same plays.

Don't know what off numbers will be, but 1500+ passing would bode very well.
 
deanvogs said:
Yep, and if you look back through KOK's history, we got the ball to the WR. This is what we will get back to this year.

01 - Kahil Hill and CJ Jones nearly 1400 yds (Clark over 500)
'02 - Mo Brown and CJ Jones over 1400 yds (Clark with over 700)
'04 - Solomon and Hinkel over 1600 yds
'05 - Solomon and Hinkel over 1300 yds (Chandler over 500)
'06 - Brodel and Douglass over 1300 yds (Chandler nearly 600)
'08 - Brodell and DJK nearly 1200 yds (nearly 800 yds for Myers, Moeaki, Reisner combined)
'09 - DJK and McNutt over 1400 yds (Stross over 400 and Moeaki + Reisner over 500)
'10 - DJK and McNutt over 1600 yds (Reisner over 450)
'11 - McNutt and Keenan Davis over 2000 yds

For the majority of KOK years we had at least 2 WR on the field that could hurt you, and we got them the ball.

Here is what happened to our top 2 WR when GD hit town:

'12 - KMM and Keenan Davis over 1100 Yds
'13 - KMM and T. Smith 698 yds to be exact.
'14 - KMM and T. Smith 1100 yds
'15 - MVB and T. Smith nearly 1300 yds (no shock this was a very good year for us)
'16 - Rliey and J. Smith 831 yds to be exact.

For those who say there is no difference in our offense and KF controls it all, you have to stick your head in the sand to believe this. Under KOK we used the WR as weapons in the passing game.....under GD we did not as a whole. We were never explosive in the passing game except for '15 with GD.
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Thanks for the breakdown of history. 08 was Shonn Greenes great season too wasn't it? That team had talent and they were being used. Getting back to using the TEs more will help so so much. The middle of the field has been ignored way too much the last few years making us so easy to defend and prep for. I wonder if Wisnewski can be healthy and make an impact. He'd been a bit of a forgotten man. It'll be now or never for him this year. Someone needs to step up alongside Fant who I think Brian should have some fun with using.
 
CP87 said:
That would be awesome, and it certainly could happen if Wadley can take lots of short passes and turn them into long plays.

As a point of comparison, Stanzi threw for 231/game in 2010, and Vandenberg threw for 232/game in 2011. Tate threw for 232/game in 2004 when our backfield was decimated. I believe those were the highest per game averages of the KF era. Brad Banks threw for 198/game (and ran for another 33/game) during his senior year.
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MR.AKRUM split wwide.Fant and Mvb a very good start.MORE touchs for MR.AKRUM the better.
 
TE production during the Greg Davis era:
2016: 32 rec, 389 yds, 5 TD
2015: 56 rec, 705 yds, 7 TD
2014: 40 rec, 445 yds, 5 TD
2013: 49 rec, 569 yds, 8 TD
2012: 60 rec, 547 yds, 2 TD
 
Hate to go negative (though this will ultimately be a positive), I think J Smith will continue to struggle, and by Oct 1 we'll see somebody else getting more snaps. A new playmaking WR will emerge... perhaps Young or Falconer. Maybe even Brandon Smith if he can pass the "wide receivers have to block flawlessly first" test.
 
Iowa will have a top 50 offense for the first time in I don't know how long. (Top 75 offense would actually be a first since KOK left)
 
Stanzi said:
Iowa will have a top 50 offense for the first time in I don't know how long. (Top 75 offense would actually be a first since KOK left)
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Man I hope ur right. If we have a top 50 offense, I think we'd be in the hunt for Indy in the November....and probably 9+ wins.
 
TE production during last 5 years of KOK era:
2011: 39 rec, 411 yds, 5 TD
2010: 52 rec, 631 yds, 2 TD
2009: 45 rec, 526 yds, 5 TD
2008: 58 rec, 785 yds, 6 TD
2007: 37 rec, 409 yds, 8 TD

Average TE production under Davis: 47 rec, 531 yds, 5.4 TD

Average TE production under KOK: 46 rec, 552 yds, 5.2 TD

That really surprised me, I assumed TE production would be much better under KOK. A couple of things that jumped out when looking at the stats:
  • Jake Duzey, what could have been?
  • Moeaki never had any huge seasons, which kind of surprised me. I guess the injuries limited his counting stats more than I remember.
  • Alan Reisner has to be the 2nd most productive TE of the KF era (behind Clark)
It seems like Iowa has a pretty decent stable of TEs right now. 600+ yards is probably reasonable.
 
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