20 Year Comparison - Hayden and Kirk

If you look at just conference win%, Fry's career average was 62.8 +/- 18.2%.

KF = 55.8 +/- 24.3%

If just focusing on their last 10 years:
Fry = 56.3 +/- 20.6%
KF = 57.9 +/- 20.0%

Here is the distribution of seasons by conference win%:upload_2019-4-25_6-5-44.png
 

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So Fry had 10 seasons at or above 70% conference win% (7 @ 6-2, 3 @ 7-1). KF only has 4. However, KF has 2 undefeated conference seasons ('02 and '15), and Fry has none. It has to be mentioned that in '02 Iowa avoided OSU (Fry never had that luxury), and in '15 avoided OSU, Mich, and PSU.
 
Actually, for most of his career their were 8 conference games, so they must have missed one opponent per season. Not sure how often he missed OSU and Mich.
 
Fryowa said:
I get it, but you also gave him 6 losses that he didn't have.

That's more than his average full season's worth of losses. I'm not trying to start shit with you because I agree with a lot of the stuff you write, but the whole point of you putting WP in the post was to show how you think they're almost identical which they aren't.

The reason stats exist is to be objective. You can monkey with your opinions, but not the numbers.

Fair is fair. Especially when you're trying to use a stat that is pervasively calc'd the same way in every sport.

If you want to change it to your own metric and call it "homes' adjusted winning percentage" I'm cool with that, but you should still edit your OP to notate it. :)
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I will take yours as a friendly amendment to my post. It appears the NFL in 1971 started to count ties as .5 wins/losses, and others followed suit.

What do I know, I'm not a statistician, I'm a Hawkeye fan. For that matter, Hayden's Big Ten record should also be adjusted for the same reasons to 60.8%
 
Fryowa said:
@ChosenChildren said Ferentz was more consistent than Hayden Fry. Standard deviation is a measure of consistency in a particular population or sample size (in this case from year to year). Basically he thinks KF has been more consistent from one season to the next but the actual stats show it’s not the case at all. Unsubstantiated bias at its finest.

Just like how he thought Ferentz has had a stronger SOS. It’s just bullshit he pulled out of thin air.
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Yes, I understand SDEV....just didn't understand it's application here. Secondly... since when is consistency necessarily desirable? (records being roughly equal) I'd take a few lows if it gets you some exceptional seasons...over a consistent 7 wins every year.

Statistics may be accurate...that doesn't make them meaningful.
 
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peerok said:
Bob Comings left Hayden more talent than most people realize. Mark Bortz, Jay Hilgenberg,Reggie Roby, Andre Tippet,Bob Stoops,Mel Cole, Dennis Mosley, Gordy Bohannon and others were on the roster when Hayden arrived. I give Hayden credit for knowing what to do with that talent, but the cupboard wasn't as bare as some people think.
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Comings did set the plate for what Hayden later did. Of course it takes nothing away from Hayden. As a former high school coach he had a lot of limitations, but the football program was such an utter mess that few wanted the job. Not only did the program have to be rebuilt from the ground up, organizational issues had to be fixed, and bad blood had to be lived down before you could get a national name interested in coaching the program.
 
AreWeThereYet said:
Comings did set the plate for what Hayden later did. Of course it takes nothing away from Hayden. As a former high school coach he had a lot of limitations, but the football program was such an utter mess that few wanted the job. Not only did the program have to be rebuilt from the ground up, organizational issues had to be fixed, and bad blood had to be lived down before you could get a national name interested in coaching the program.
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When Hayden came in, it was definitely with the understanding that there was a new sheriff in town.
 
CP87 said:
Actually, for most of his career their were 8 conference games, so they must have missed one opponent per season. Not sure how often he missed OSU and Mich.
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Pretty sure Iowa didn't play OSU in 81. Both teams finished 6-2 in the conference, but Iowa got the Rose Bowl berth since it had been longer since they had been there. That left Michigan as Iowa's only ranked big ten opponent that year.
 
When you really look at them, they've had remarkably similar careers.

They took about 3/4 years to have a breakthrough season and those seasons started a great decade for Iowa football. Fry 1981-1991 (11 seasons actually) and KF (2001-2010). Followed by some hit and miss seasons.

-Both had 1 great season. (Fry 1985, KF 2002)
-Both had potential great seasons derailed by injury, or just missing out on opportunities that were there and they should have won. (Fry 1983 & 1984, KF 2003 & 2005)
-Both had dumpster fire seasons in the middle of their tenure. (Fry 1992-1994, KF 2006-2007 & 2011-2012)
-Both never fully recovered and duplicated their great decade of Iowa football.

-Fry was clearly better at building a coaching staff but ultimately couldn't replace his best assistants after they left.
-After his great decade, his teams would often be completely overmatched by Ohio St, Michigan, & PSU

-Outside of the Parkers KF hires a lot of "yes" men.
-KF develops players far better and sends them to the pros more often.
-KF's teams rarely get embarrassed, even by the B1G elite.
-KF has allowed Wisconsin and MSU to completely pass Iowa, shit they're lapping Iowa at this point.
 
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