20 Year Comparison - Hayden and Kirk

[hawkeyebob62]

Bob Comings left Hayden more talent than most people realize. Mark Bortz, Jay Hilgenberg,Reggie Roby, Andre Tippet,Bob Stoops,Mel Cole, Dennis Mosley, Gordy Bohannon and others were on the roster when Hayden arrived. I give Hayden credit for knowing what to do with that talent, but the cupboard wasn't as bare as some people think.

^^This^^ D

Despite insane assertions of who has more intestinal fortitude, or whether or not you like a particular coach, Hayden inherited a much better roster than KF inherited.

KF has, twice, gotten us to 8-0 to start a season. Hayden never once started 8-0, and only started 7-0 once. That season began with Drake, Northern Illinois and ISU. So it's not like Hayden had a more difficult start to that season. On the other hand, his first four seasons had brutal non-con schedules, whereas Kirk had Nebraska, Kansas State, a surging Iowa State, but mixed in with less-than-impressive opponents.

Comparing the two is, at the same time, relevant and pointless. The one common denominator: being at a school that never had sustained dominance. Iowa has had glimpses of "dynasty", but never has Iowa had a sustained, half decade or longer, period of "invincibility".

What cracks me up are the Fry-deifiers who, it turns out, were born in the late 1970s/early-1980s. It's like those people who say, "I miss Hendrix, man", but were born in 1992 (as if living in Seattle brings some mystifying "connection"). They say, "Which team would you rather watch?! Huh?! Huh?!" as if youtube makes one an expert.

 

[GesterHawk]

Overall Winning Percentage - Hayden (60.08%) Kirk (60.07%)
Big Ten Winning Percentage - Hayden (59.25%) Kirk (55.8%)
Big Ten Championships - Hayden 3 Kirk 2
10 Win Seasons - Hayden 3 Kirk 5
9 Win Seasons - Hayden 3 Kirk 2
8 Win Seasons - Hayden 5 Kirk 4
Winning Seasons - Hayden 13 Kirk 15
Losing Record Big Ten - Hayden 4 Kirk 5

Objectively, in many years (but not every year), Iowa's non-conference schedule under Hayden was tougher than Iowa's schedule under Kirk. Adjusting for the tougher non-conference schedules in some years (meaning Iowa would have had softer opponents and win those games as opposed to losing to the tougher opponent), Hayden would have 9 more wins, giving him 152 total.*

The first 10 years of each, Hayden was more successful than Kirk, both overall record and Big Ten record (notably, Hayden never had a losing record in the Big Ten his first 10 years, winning 66% of his Big Ten games). The second 10 years of each, Kirk has been more successful than Hayden, both overall and in the Big Ten, even adjusting for the tougher non-conference opponents in favor of Hayden.

152 wins would put Hayden's winning percentage at 63.86%. He would have 16 winning seasons (1979, 1992, and 1994), he would have 2 more 9 win seasons (1982 and 1990), 1 more 8 win season (1992) offset by 2 less given the 2 extra 9 win years. To match Hayden's adjusted overall record, Kirk would need to average 10 wins a season for the next 5 years.

So, there's a little bit for everyone here.

*I adjusted by giving Hayden 1 more win in 1979, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994 (3), 1994 and 1998. For example in 1979, Iowa played both Nebraska and Oklahoma; however in Kirk's first year, Iowa also played Nebraska, so I gave Hayden 1 extra win, substituting Oklahoma out for someone easier, as the Nebraska games canceled each other out.

Anyone else have troubles when reading something that starts with 'objectively' and then makes unsubstantiated claims (actual facts would substantiate the claims) and then arbitrarily assigns an additional win to a season?
Or is that just me?

 

[ChosenChildren]

No matter what anyone says, and no matter how much people love or hate Ferentz, what Hayden Fry did to the the Iowa football program as a whole can't be left out of the comparison. He took the program from a long-standing, total embarrassment and after thought, to one that was a contender nationally in just a few short years. Even though Kirk didn't inherit a winning team, he didn't inherit anything close to the tire fire that Fry did. In other words, there is zero chance that KF takes the same program Fry did and turns it into a winning squad.

Hayden Fry took losers (players, staff, fans, and administrators) with an ingrained defeatist attitude and turned them into winners who took pride in what they had, which is the hardest thing in the world to do. He turned it on it’s head down to the fine details.

Threw out the loser era uniforms and emulated the best team in the world at that time (if you look like a winner you feel like a winner). Commissioned the Tigerhawk as a symbol people would associate with the program and become connected with. Everyone of us has hundreds of Tigerhawks scattered throughout our closets, houses, and vehicles. He drew a line in the sand, and said enough of sucking, this is a new program and it’s going to transform, starting now.

Fry demanded toughness instead of being ok with losing. He said he wasn't going to tolerate the status quo of being a doormat and he walked the walk. Ferentz doesn't have half the intestinal fortitude that it takes to do something like that.

I agree; there was only one Hayden Fry. But Ferentz has sustained, and at times surpassed, Fry's success. It is hard to come in after a legend and do well, but Ferentz did so. Ferentz will be in the college football hall and deserves a place on Iowa's Mt. Rushmore of football coaches. I also believe that Ferentz has one or two more great teams in him, starting this fall.

I also think it is fair to point out that Hayden did not have to go toe to toe with Penn State and Nebraska during most of his tenure at Iowa. He also played against ridiculously weak Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa State teams during his time. I don't buy the theory that fry played tougher schedules than Ferentz. I think the opposite is actually true.

It is a great debate. I believe they are two great coaches and we were lucky to have them.

 

[ChosenChildren]

^^This^^ D

Despite insane assertions of who has more intestinal fortitude, or whether or not you like a particular coach, Hayden inherited a much better roster than KF inherited.

KF has, twice, gotten us to 8-0 to start a season. Hayden never once started 8-0, and only started 7-0 once. That season began with Drake, Northern Illinois and ISU. So it's not like Hayden had a more difficult start to that season. On the other hand, his first four seasons had brutal non-con schedules, whereas Kirk had Nebraska, Kansas State, a surging Iowa State, but mixed in with less-than-impressive opponents.

Comparing the two is, at the same time, relevant and pointless. The one common denominator: being at a school that never had sustained dominance. Iowa has had glimpses of "dynasty", but never has Iowa had a sustained, half decade or longer, period of "invincibility".

What cracks me up are the Fry-deifiers who, it turns out, were born in the late 1970s/early-1980s. It's like those people who say, "I miss Hendrix, man", but were born in 1992 (as if living in Seattle brings some mystifying "connection"). They say, "Which team would you rather watch?! Huh?! Huh?!" as if youtube makes one an expert.

I agree. The Ferentz "legend" will grow after he retires (if his son doesn't take over), just like Hayden's did. Hayden had a bunch of mediocre teams in the 1990s, but people only remember the glory of the 1980s. Ferentz has been amazingly consistent.

 

[EstronHawkKing]

Bob Comings left Hayden more talent than most people realize. Mark Bortz, Jay Hilgenberg,Reggie Roby, Andre Tippet,Bob Stoops,Mel Cole, Dennis Mosley, Gordy Bohannon and others were on the roster when Hayden arrived. I give Hayden credit for knowing what to do with that talent, but the cupboard wasn't as bare as some people think.

Roby wasn't on the roster when Hayden arrived, he was actually Hayden's first big time recruit that he landed.

That.
Plus Hayden was more successful in the B10.

and Hayden owned Iowa St., Wisconsin and Northwestern. Hayden also didn't say stupid things like "that's football" Does anyone remember when former Iowa President Hunter Rawlings wanted to turn Iowa into an Ivy League type school academically and ban all freshman from playing football? Hayden was so pissed that at a presser he had, Hayden actually said he wanted to fire Rawlings.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Roby wasn't on the roster when Hayden arrived, he was actually Hayden's first big time recruit that he landed.

and Hayden owned Iowa St., Wisconsin and Northwestern. Hayden also didn't say stupid things like "that's football" Does anyone remember when former Iowa President Hunter Rawlings wanted to turn Iowa into an Ivy League type school academically and ban all freshman from playing football? Hayden was so pissed that at a presser he had, Hayden actually said he wanted to fire Rawlings.

Hayden also had dumb quotes ("That game was weird"). He used the injury "rationale" which, since KF has taken over, isn't even allowed anymore ("Injuries are a part of the game!"). He called dumb plays (Two Statue of Liberty calls, not only in the same game, but on consecutive plays).

In other words, stay at one place for 20 years, you're bound to do some head-scratching stuff, especially when armchair QBs get to review it in hindsight. And in the latter years, he didn't even own NW and Wisconsin, although he did beat the former in his final season. And he didn't have to play Wisconsin in 1993/1994, their first two Rose Bowl years under Alvarez.

Good Lord, that last sentence was "hater" language, straight from the oldhawk12 and Caddy playbooks!

 

[Northside Hawk]

Roby wasn't on the roster when Hayden arrived, he was actually Hayden's first big time recruit that he landed.

and Hayden owned Iowa St., Wisconsin and Northwestern. Hayden also didn't say stupid things like "that's football" Does anyone remember when former Iowa President Hunter Rawlings wanted to turn Iowa into an Ivy League type school academically and ban all freshman from playing football? Hayden was so pissed that at a presser he had, Hayden actually said he wanted to fire Rawlings.

Hayden at the Rawlings presser. "I'd like to to redshirt my president."

I think what pissed Hayden off the most, in addition to the recruiting disadvantages it would create, is the fact that Hunter had numerous opportunities to soften his position and didn't. If anything he doubled down, then started to wear his stance as some self righteous badge of honor and chortle about it every time a mircrophone was in his face. He might as well been wearing a sandwich board trumpeting his stance to unilaterally make freshmen ineligible.

I don't know what happened to Iowa and Commings in 1978. They had shown promise in 1976 and 1977, and had a nice mix of veteran talent like Tom Rusk and Mike Hufford, in addition to the young talent that would eventually be the core of the '82 Rose bowl team. But they crashed to 2-9 and it was over for Commings. Hayden was hired and the rest was history.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

People make too big of a deal about whether a team is P5 or not. Iowa has played some good non P5 teams and some bad P5 teams. N. Illinios finished in the top 25 several times when Iowa played them. (the Jordan Lynch years). Miami (Oh) was also very good in 02-03 when Big Ben was there. Those teams were better than Syracuse or some of the Iowa St teams Iowa's played over the last 40 years. Hell UNI has been better than Iowa St on numerous occasions.

True. But that's still a lot more non-cons...which tend to be weaker opponents. Interesting side note, if KFz had beat all of those "lesser" teams...NIU, Western Mich (twice), Central Michigan, NDSU, ISU on bad years...he'd have a better winning % than Hayden

 

[Fryowa]

I don't buy the theory that fry played tougher schedules than Ferentz. I think the opposite is actually true.

Well, you're factually wrong on that one.

Ferentz AVG SOS - 2.981

Fry AVG SOS - 3.883

That's not an insignificant difference.

Fry also had 10 teams finish the year ranked in the top 25 vs Ferentz having 6 with a weaker average SOS.

 

[homes]

Anyone else have troubles when reading something that starts with 'objectively' and then makes unsubstantiated claims (actual facts would substantiate the claims) and then arbitrarily assigns an additional win to a season?
Or is that just me?

It could be that it's just you. The records are the records; however, when making that straight comparison, it's met with, yeah but Hayden played a tougher non-conference schedule. So, I looked. "Objectively" that's true. Hayden's teams play 61 non-conference games, 21 of those opponents came from Power 5 conferences (not including Iowa State) (35%). Kirk's teams have played 71 non-conference games, 13 of them have come from Power 5 conferences (and I'm including Syracuse in that even though they were in the Big East at the time, as Miami was also in the Big East in 1992 when Hayden's team played them). (18%).

Of course there are assumptions made, you can rightly argue that even if these 9 opponents had been softer teams that Iowa would have lost some of those (Hayden wasn't infallible against those teams). It's giving him the benefit of the doubt for those who assert that Hayden had to face tougher non-conference opponents, which I think is a fair observation.

For my assumptions, I gave Hayden wins in these games by substituting in a far lesser opponent. It also evens out the percentages.

1979 Oklahoma - 11-1
1982 Nebraska - 12-1
1987 Tennessee - 10-2-1
1990 Miami - 10-2
1992 NC State 9-3-1, Miami 11-1, Colorado 9-2-1
1994 Oregon - 9-4
1998 Arizona - 11-1

So, there you have it. In the end, they're pretty darn close. It comes down to a matter of preference.

 

[Fryowa]

...deserves a place on Iowa's Mt. Rushmore of football coaches.

I don't really know what say to this one...

Kind of hard to make a Mt Rushmore out of Iowa coaching. We've had 3 coaches since shitting indoors became a thing who've even come close to being successful. A Mt. Rushmore suggests some sort of storied history, and at least a few people to chose from for that "honor," and none of that exists at Iowa no matter how much we want to think so.

 

[GesterHawk]

Well, you're factually wrong on that one.

Ferentz AVG SOS - 2.981

Fry AVG SOS - 3.883

That's not an insignificant difference.

Fry also had 10 teams finish the year ranked in the top 25 vs Ferentz having 6 with a weaker average SOS.

Where did you find the SOS for the Fry years? That would be a cool thing to look through.

 

[Fryowa]

Where did you find the SOS for the Fry years? That would be a cool thing to look through.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/iowa/

 

[Fryowa]

Overall Winning Percentage - Hayden (60.08%)

Where did you come up with that?

Fry's winning percentage at Iowa is .613.

In winning percentage ties are half a point. The way you're calculating it gives him credit for losing 6 games that he didn't lose. I'm not nitpicking, that's the way W% is calculated across all sports.

That's a big enough difference that you need to edit your post and notate it.

 

[homes]

I counted wins. I'm not arguing against your observation, it's a .0122 difference. Whether that is a big enough difference is a matter of opinion, as in my original post I also gave Hayden credit for wins he could have gotten with a lesser opponent, which someone else has critiqued. My point is that they're very close, and it comes down to a matter of personal preference. That 's why I ended my original post with - "So, there's a little bit for everyone here."

 

[Fryowa]

I counted wins. I'm not arguing against your observation, it's a .0122 difference. Whether that is a big enough difference is a matter of opinion, as in my original post I also gave Hayden credit for wins he could have gotten with a lesser opponent, which someone else has critiqued. My point is that they're very close, and it comes down to a matter of personal preference. That 's why I ended my original post with - "So, there's a little bit for everyone here."

I get it, but you also gave him 6 losses that he didn't have.

That's more than his average full season's worth of losses. I'm not trying to start shit with you because I agree with a lot of the stuff you write, but the whole point of you putting WP in the post was to show how you think they're almost identical which they aren't.

The reason stats exist is to be objective. You can monkey with your opinions, but not the numbers.

Fair is fair. Especially when you're trying to use a stat that is pervasively calc'd the same way in every sport.

If you want to change it to your own metric and call it "homes' adjusted winning percentage" I'm cool with that, but you should still edit your OP to notate it.

 

[Fryowa]

Ferentz has been amazingly consistent.

Again, wrong. You're pulling stuff out of your butthole on this thread. If you're going to say Ferentz is more consistent use some numbers or some facts to back it up. If anything else this shows how opinions replace facts in people's heads.

Ferentz win% SDEV: .197

Fry win% SDEV .158

Small difference? Maybe. But it's more than enough to say that Ferentz isn't more consistent because it's actually the opposite.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Again, wrong. You're pulling stuff out of your butthole on this thread. If you're going to say Ferentz is more consistent use some numbers or some facts to back it up. If anything else this shows how opinions replace facts in people's heads.

Ferentz win% SDEV: .197

Fry win% SDEV .158

Small difference? Maybe. But it's more than enough to say that Ferentz isn't more consistent because it's actually the opposite.

SDEV?

 

[Fryowa]

SDEV?

Standard deviation

 

[trj]

Every time this debate comes up I lean toward Hayden. For one reason and one reason only. I think it is much more difficult to change the culture of a program than it is to replenish the cupboards. Hayden had to change the culture of the Iowa program, the culture was already established when Kirk got here. Without Hayden there is no Kirk.