11 wins in non-conf will be most in 7 years for Iowa

storminspank

storminspank

Justin VanLaere
If Iowa takes care of business, as it should, these next two games, they will end up 11-2 in the non-conference.
Both Jon and I had them pegged for 11-2 preseason. Each of us saw a loss in the Cancun finals and vs. UNI. We both missed on the Virginia Tech loss.

This would be the highest non-conference win total for an Iowa program since 2005-06, the year the Hawkeyes were a 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. No, I'm not comparing the two teams, that would be ridiculous. This is still very much an NIT-likely team, but the potential is there for this team to be a sleeper with the B1G based on tempo, style, and emerging talent.

What am I trying to say? Not much. Just that it's nice win total. It's showing that the program is turning around, but at the same it's pretty much what most of us expecting going into the season. The conference slate will be a fun one for fans. Iowa gets to compete in the best conference in the land. Jon had Iowa starting 3-5 in the first 8 games, finishing 9-9. I had Iowa going 2-6 to start in the first 8 games, finishing 9-9. I'll revisit my predictions come conference schedule time, but glancing over it - Purdue on the road looks winnable and MSU at home does as well.

It's going to get bumpy come Jan/Feb, but that's all part of the fun.
 
I think at this point in time the B10 slate looks more manageable for Iowa than it did before the season began. Penn St, Wisconsin and N'western all have had serious injuries which help our chances against those teams. Purdue is worse than people expected. Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota all have looked better than most people expected, but I think Iowa will be able to hang with almost anyone in the B10 at home and has a real good shot at going at least 9-9 this year.
 
It's a bit early to talk about turning points in seasons, but I think the Gardner-Webb comeback was huge. Last year we got behind, stayed behind, and lost those games. I heard Marble's postgame on Saturday and he said that at half of the GW game, both he and White told the team "this can't happen again, we can't let this happen". Honestly, I don't get all the criticism of Iowa's non conference schedule. Granted, we didn't play Duke, KU or one of the other ESPN darlings, but WSU, VT, UNI, ISU and WKU all have a shot to make the tourney and Gardner-Webb is a decent second tier team.
 
I had Iowa losing at NW, would change that to a win now. Also a loss at Purdue that I feel better about now. I had Iowa losing at PSU...now without Frazier? Would be really disappointed if they lose that one. I gave Iowa wins at home v MSU and Minnesota....could see both of those going the other direction.

If I had to revise, I might say 10-8 now...but still feel this team shoots too poorly from beyond the arc so will stay with 9-9.
 
Most encouraging is seeing Hawks beat who they should and playing peers equally. Indiana will tell a lot. If ever a moral victory can pay dividends, a competitive, close game might keep confidence high that they can pull an upset or 2 the rest of the way.

While I agree to stick with 9-9, that's basically "chalk" (@NwU, Wisc, @Purdue, PSU, NwU, @PSU, @Neb, Purdue, Neb). Other winnable games if the Hawks are "on" include MSU, @Wisc, Illannoy - maybe Minny, if they have an off day but just feel they are too athletic and just see Indiana as too balanced to lose to Iowa.

So, conservative = 20-11 / 9-9, just continuting to take care of business. Due to horrible s.o.s., weak record vs top 50 and finishing 5-5 in last 10, would need to win 2 BTT to dance. If they upset Illannoy or Minny (both at home) over last month of season, finishing 7-3 over last 10 (22-9 / 11-7), Hawks will be 7 or 8 seed, regardless of BTT.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Most encouraging is seeing Hawks beat who they should and playing peers equally. Indiana will tell a lot. If ever a moral victory can pay dividends, a competitive, close game might keep confidence high that they can pull an upset or 2 the rest of the way.

While I agree to stick with 9-9, that's basically "chalk" (@NwU, Wisc, @Purdue, PSU, NwU, @PSU, @Neb, Purdue, Neb). Other winnable games if the Hawks are "on" include MSU, @Wisc, Illannoy - maybe Minny, if they have an off day but just feel they are too athletic and just see Indiana as too balanced to lose to Iowa.

So, conservative = 20-11 / 9-9, just continuting to take care of business. Due to horrible s.o.s., weak record vs top 50 and finishing 5-5 in last 10, would need to win 2 BTT to dance. If they upset Illannoy or Minny (both at home) over last month of season, finishing 7-3 over last 10 (22-9 / 11-7), Hawks will be 7 or 8 seed, regardless of BTT.
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We will not have anything close to a horrible SOS. We'll have a top 50 SOS by the end of the season. Our non-conf SOS is higher than it was last season and last year we ended up with the 38th best SOS by season's end (according to Ken Pom).
 
My official pick in the non-conference was 10-3, so provided Iowa doesn't lay an egg in one of these last two games, they will end up at 11-2, better than I had expected. I basically picked a split between ISU and UNI, and Iowa won them both. Excellent.

As discussed above, some Big Ten opponents look better than we expected, and others not as much. So that said, I will stick with my 10-8 conference prediction, and say Iowa goes into the BTT at 21-10.

I share Jon's concern about the outside shooting being too inconsistent (despite the UNI game), and am not convinced that we have a consistent enough presence in the paint to overcome poor shooting nights, so maybe my 10-8 prediction is a bit too generous by a game or two, but what the heck. Either way, I look for Iowa to be on the bubble this year, barring injuries or Iowa simply falling flat in conference play.
 
Hopefully, they won't stumble against the next 2,( remember Campbell last yr) I had them at 8-4, so I m would be really happy with 11-2. If they could win 10 big ten games they will be dancing and Fran deserves a shot at Coach of the Yr honors. Stormin you didnt answer my qustion, who did you pull for Sat?
 
SirJamaLot said:
Hopefully, they won't stumble against the next 2,( remember Campbell last yr) I had them at 8-4, so I m would be really happy with 11-2. If they could win 10 big ten games they will be dancing and Fran deserves a shot at Coach of the Yr honors. Stormin you didnt answer my qustion, who did you pull for Sat?
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I can say that I was not pulling for UNI this past Saturday.
 
I was thinking 10-3 as well with Iowa losing a game at Cancun, losing at VTech, and splitting ISU/UNI so I am happy with the results so far.

Be careful on writing Northwestern down as a win, both in football and basketball they find a way to bite us in the butt. Northwestern has a pretty good coach, I am sure he will make the adjustments. If they are hitting their 3s they can take down anybody.

Spank, you really think a 9-9 B1G team gets left out of the dance? As strong as the conference is this year it is hard to imagine a .500 conference team being left out, especially one that finishes with 20 wins overall.
 
To even be on the bubble at end of year would be a huge step back on the right direction for this team. Bubble boys
 
What I like about this team in both the ISU and UNI games is how the responded when both those teams made a run. It happened a few times in both games, Iowa responded by increasing the lead and never folding. They basically controlled both of those games start to finish and we could not say that about a Hawk team in the in-state rivalry games for several years.
 
split with Indiana is very doable. Fran is currently 3-1 against IU, with far less talent
10-8 in conference play 21-10 Iowa is dancing without a win in the BTT
 
redhawk55 said:
split with Indiana is very doable. Fran is currently 3-1 against IU, with far less talent
10-8 in conference play 21-10 Iowa is dancing without a win in the BTT
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Indiana did just lose to Butler, who knows what to think about this Indiana team but Iowa is going to have to be shooting well from outside to be able to win this game. Cody Zeller is normally on this game, if he plays well I don't foresee Iowa getting anything going in the post. I see Cody Zeller causing early foul trouble for Woody and it is going to come down to Basabe to handle him and if Basabe can't get it going, well Iowa is going to be in trouble as we have see the outside shooting is streaky this year.

Who knows what the regular season holds but this Iowa team is young and seems to be getting better from week to week. I just wish that they didn't have to play Indiana, Michigan and Illinios so early in the season. But by the end of the season this team this team should be pretty solid.
 
redhawk55 said:
split with Indiana is very doable. Fran is currently 3-1 against IU, with far less talent
10-8 in conference play 21-10 Iowa is dancing without a win in the BTT
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Hawks have defeated Indiana 5 out of the past 6 games. They might be a little concerned coming into Carver. Too bad Butler beat them. It would be nice to beat another number one team.....

:)
 
dave3912 said:
Indiana did just lose to Butler, who knows what to think about this Indiana team but Iowa is going to have to be shooting well from outside to be able to win this game. Cody Zeller is normally on this game, if he plays well I don't foresee Iowa getting anything going in the post. I see Cody Zeller causing early foul trouble for Woody and it is going to come down to Basabe to handle him and if Basabe can't get it going, well Iowa is going to be in trouble as we have see the outside shooting is streaky this year.

Who knows what the regular season holds but this Iowa team is young and seems to be getting better from week to week. I just wish that they didn't have to play Indiana, Michigan and Illinios so early in the season. But by the end of the season this team this team should be pretty solid.
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Watched a replay of the Indiana game at Carver last season and Basabe and Olaseni both played Zeller well....

If Woody can stay out of foul trouble, we have a good chance to upset them. I am certain that their strategy will be to get him two quick fouls so he can sit the rest of the first half......

We have a chance......

:)
 
jacknicholson said:
Watched a replay of the Indiana game at Carver last season and Basabe and Olaseni both played Zeller well....

If Woody can stay out of foul trouble, we have a good chance to upset them. I am certain that their strategy will be to get him two quick fouls so he can sit the rest of the first half......

We have a chance......

:)
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I think we have a chance but I think Redhawk is down playing Indiana just a tadbit here. Indiana is a lot better than they were in the past.
 
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