11 wins in non-conf will be most in 7 years for Iowa

[Tmoney12]

Watched a replay of the Indiana game at Carver last season and Basabe and Olaseni both played Zeller well....

If Woody can stay out of foul trouble, we have a good chance to upset them. I am certain that their strategy will be to get him two quick fouls so he can sit the rest of the first half......

We have a chance......

So you're saying there's a chance??

 

[DodgerHawki]

Anywhere from 7-10 wins is probably realistic in conference....

Most encouraging is seeing Hawks beat who they should and playing peers equally. Indiana will tell a lot. If ever a moral victory can pay dividends, a competitive, close game might keep confidence high that they can pull an upset or 2 the rest of the way.

While I agree to stick with 9-9, that's basically "chalk" (@NwU, Wisc, @Purdue, PSU, NwU, @PSU, @Neb, Purdue, Neb). Other winnable games if the Hawks are "on" include MSU, @Wisc, Illannoy - maybe Minny, if they have an off day but just feel they are too athletic and just see Indiana as too balanced to lose to Iowa.

So, conservative = 20-11 / 9-9, just continuting to take care of business. Due to horrible s.o.s., weak record vs top 50 and finishing 5-5 in last 10, would need to win 2 BTT to dance. If they upset Illannoy or Minny (both at home) over last month of season, finishing 7-3 over last 10 (22-9 / 11-7), Hawks will be 7 or 8 seed, regardless of BTT.

yes, Iowa should be favored in all the games against PSU, Neb, NW and home against Purdue, but I don't think it's likely that we win all of those games. Yes, Nebraska and PSU are not good, but Iowa just isn't at the place where those can be counted as automatic W's. Key will be to win as many of those games as possible and pick off a few of the others in the home games.

 

[redhawk55]

I think we have a chance but I think Redhawk is down playing Indiana just a tadbit here. Indiana is a lot better than they were in the past.

how am I downplaying Indiana, 3 time Iowa has beaten them with far less talent and depth.
and I am not sold on Indiana's ability to win on the road. way to many people are buying into the hype

 

[Xerxes]

If Iowa takes care of business, as it should, these next two games, they will end up 11-2 in the non-conference.
Both Jon and I had them pegged for 11-2 preseason. Each of us saw a loss in the Cancun finals and vs. UNI. We both missed on the Virginia Tech loss.

This would be the highest non-conference win total for an Iowa program since 2005-06, the year the Hawkeyes were a 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. No, I'm not comparing the two teams, that would be ridiculous. This is still very much an NIT-likely team, but the potential is there for this team to be a sleeper with the B1G based on tempo, style, and emerging talent.

What am I trying to say? Not much. Just that it's nice win total. It's showing that the program is turning around, but at the same it's pretty much what most of us expecting going into the season. The conference slate will be a fun one for fans. Iowa gets to compete in the best conference in the land. Jon had Iowa starting 3-5 in the first 8 games, finishing 9-9. I had Iowa going 2-6 to start in the first 8 games, finishing 9-9. I'll revisit my predictions come conference schedule time, but glancing over it - Purdue on the road looks winnable and MSU at home does as well.

It's going to get bumpy come Jan/Feb, but that's all part of the fun.

I don't think its ridiculous at all to compare the 2005-2006 team to this year's team. Right now I think the 2005-2006 team is better. But in March, not so sure. 2005-2006 was a pathetic year in the B10 basketball. Iowa benefited from that. This year is the exact opposite.

Horner, Henderson, Haluska (JR year, not SR year), Brunner, & Hanson (Thomas, Freeman, Thompson)

vs

Gessel, Clemmons, Marble, White, & Woodbury (May, Basabe, Osalani, McCabe, Oglesby)

Horner vs Gessel: trouble for Gessell, Horner too smart & well conditioned. He'd wear him out and dominate late.
Henderson/Clemmons: tough call, probably a push, Henderson was solid, Clemmons more athletic
Marble vs Haluska (SR) would be awesome, Marble vs Haluska (JR) is laughable.
Brunner vs White: this is a heavyweight battle, Brunner is tougher, White might foul him out in 10 minutes though
Hanson vs Woodbury: Hanson's D would limit Woodbury to little or nothing

Bench matchup is laughable. This years bench is deeper, more athletic, and much more versatile. Thomas is the only 2005-2006 bench player who would be in the 2012-2013 rotation.