Pre-Spring Look Ahead to 2010

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
Pre-Spring Preseason Top 25 for 2010

1. Boise State
A whopping 21 starters return for the Broncos, who are coming off a BCS bowl victory over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. That likely means Boise State will start the season with its highest preseason ranking ever, which also means it will have its first legitimate shot at the national title—especially with non-conference games against Virginia Tech and Oregon State. Not since BYU in 1984 has a team from a non-BCS conference been crowned a national champion. Robbie Bosco might have company soon.

2. Ohio State
Five years ago there were questions about Vince Young until he was MVP of the Rose Bowl as a sophomore, and his Longhorns used that as a springboard to winning the national title the very next season. Could history repeat itself for Terrelle Pryor? He also was MVP of the Rose Bowl as a sophomore, and the Buckeyes return 16 starters. A non-conference home date with Miami (Fla.) will provide Ohio State an early chance to stake its claim as BCS favorites.

3. Oregon
What can Chip Kelly do for an encore? Well, for starters he should avoid a sophomore coaching slump with 20 starters returning to the reigning Pac-10 champions. On paper the Ducks are a prohibitive favorite to repeat, but the games aren’t played on paper and the conference schedule includes road games at USC, California, and Oregon State.

4. Alabama
To defend their national title the Crimson Tide will have to complete a major rebuilding effort of their stout defense that returns just three starters. For those saying that’s no big deal as long as Nick Saban is still there, remember what replacing so many players did to USC’s defense in 2009 even with defensive whiz Pete Carroll as its head coach. However, the experienced offense could be the most explosive in the SEC, and the rest of the teams in that conference are facing so much uncertainty that it’s tough tell right now who is ready to rise up and challenge them.

5. TCU
An impressive nine players return who garnered all-conference mention last season, as well as 16 starters overall so the Horned Frogs aren’t going anywhere. Look for TCU to claim its highest preseason ranking in school history. A non-conference road game at resurgent SMU could be tricky, and a road trip to Utah is never easy. Beyond that, though, the schedule should be a breeze which should mean a return to the BCS.

6. Iowa
The Hawkeyes’ national title hopes took hit with the departures of Bryan Bulaga and Amari Spivey to the NFL draft, but they still return 14 starters and two other players that were supposed to be starters in 2009 but missed the season with injuries. This might be the deepest team Kirk Ferentz has had since the star-studded 2002 squad, and the only game on the schedule that as of now Iowa probably wouldn’t be favored in is Ohio State—which is at Kinnick Stadium.

7. Oklahoma
2009’s series of unfortunate events that led to the premature debut of the Landry Jones era could very well pay big dividends in 2010. The somewhat surprising decisions by Demarco Murray and Ryan Broyles to stay in school give the Sooners nine returning starters on offense. The defense needs some re-tooling with standouts Gerald McCoy and Dominique Franks leaving early, but will still return six starters. The schedule is more than manageable.

8. Miami (Fla.)
Randy Shannon has been steadily rebuilding the Hurricanes, and with 16 starters including quarterback Jacory Harris returning, this could be the season he returns the U. to elite status. However, Miami will again face one of the toughest schedules in the country. The ACC is expected to be as strong as it’s ever been, and the non-conference schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Pittsburgh.

9. North Carolina
This is the season Butch Davis has been building towards. He has 19 starters coming back, including what could be one of the best defenses in the nation and a senior quarterback. A strong non-conference schedule begins with a nationally-televised opener against LSU in Atlanta, which is either a chance for the Tar Heels to announce they’re ready to swim with the big boys or are still not ready for primetime.

10. Texas
The Longhorns will return more experience than you might otherwise think, but they will lack in proven big-name playmakers and rebuilding the offensive line will be a chore this spring. Still, have you checked out the schedule? If Texas can walk and chew gum at the same time it will at least win nine games, which means if Mack Brown can develop a couple of needed playmakers from his annual star-studded recruiting hauls the Longhorns aren’t going anywhere.

11. Oregon State
The past two seasons the Beavers have been a win in the Civil War away from returning to the Rose Bowl for the first time since LBJ was in the White House. With 17 starters returning, and a conference schedule that features very winnable road games and Oregon coming to Corvallis, might the third time finally be the charm? It will come down to quarterback. Either former starter Lyle Moevao will be granted a sixth year via medical hardship to stabilize the position, or former prep star Ryan Katz will be called upon to grow up quickly.

12. Florida
This is the toughest team to rank. The Gators have been decimated by graduation and early entries into the NFL draft, and the best Urban Meyer can do after retiring and un-retiring in a span of 24 hours is say he has “a gut feeling†he’ll be back to coach this fall after taking a leave of absence. No program in the country has recruited better in recent years, but that depth is going to be tested. Returning what should be one of the nation’s top offensive lines is a good place to start any reloading effort.

13. Nebraska
Bo Pelini isn’t bashful about heaping huge expectations on this fall’s squad, and with 17 returning starters it’s easy to see why. On top of that, it’s difficult to find a game on the schedule you know for sure the Huskers will be an underdog in. The toughest non-conference tilt is at still rebuilding Washington, Oklahoma isn’t on the schedule, and Texas and Missouri come to Lincoln. Still, while there’s plenty of returning experience there’s not a lot of explosiveness.

14. Wisconsin
By the end of last season the Badgers might have had the most balanced and physical offense in the Big Ten and 10 of those starters are returning this fall. The star is unquestionably John Clay, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and the latest in a long line of bruising Badger runners. With the offensive line returning intact, Clay is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. The defense still needs to improve and won’t get better without O’Brien Schofield terrorizing opposing offensive backfields.

15. Virginia Tech
The Hokies ended 2009 on a hot streak, but Beamer Ball’s traditional calling cards of defense and special teams will be tested in 2010. Only four starters return on defense after Jason Worilds declared early for the draft, and both kickers are gone, too. However, Tyrod Taylor returns for his third season as the starting quarterback along with eight other starters on the side of the ball. No team in the country has a deeper stable of running backs, and if the Hokies can split ACC road games with North Carolina and Miami they could be back in the BCS again.

16. South Carolina
We know for sure this will be the best team Steve Spurrier has had yet in Columbia, and with 16 starters returning including quarterback Stephen Garcia we also know it will be the most experienced team in the SEC East Division. What we don’t know is if that will be good enough to finally get the Gamecocks over the hump and into the SEC Championship Game. A 6-2 league record might be good enough to make that happen, if one of those wins is at the Swamp on November 13th.

17. Connecticut
The Huskies had so many close losses in 2009, and those things typically turn around for a team the following season. With Big East powers Cincinnati and South Florida making coaching changes, and Pittsburgh replacing several key players, it could be time for Randy Edsall to take this program to the next level. He returns 17 starters, including a senior quarterback protected by a physical, pro-style rushing attack that features the entire offensive line returning. UCONN gets a chance to make a statement to the nation when it opens its schedule at the newly renovated Big House against struggling Michigan on September 4th.

18. Arkansas
Ryan Mallett’s decision to forego the NFL draft for at least one more year is the difference between the Razorbacks legitimately contending for a SEC title or perhaps not even making a bowl game. That’s how important the lankly gunslinger is to Bobby Petrino’s offense. With 17 starters returning there is stability in Fayetteville for the first time since Houston Nutt left, and the schedule has the Razorbacks hosting both traditional SEC West powers LSU and Alabama.

19. Florida State
Jimbo Fisher picked the right year to finally push out…err, I mean replace Bobby Bowden. He returns everybody on offense, including two starting quarterbacks, and 17 starters overall. Now you can see why Bowden wanted to hold on for one more season, because he knew what the Seminoles had coming back. So why aren’t they rated higher? Well, have you seen that schedule? A non-conference schedule consisting of Oklahoma, Florida, and BYU – three teams that went a combined 32-8 in 2009 – and they play in the tougher of the two divisions in the ACC.

20. West Virginia
Bill Stewart is already calling his shot for 2011, saying his Mountaineers will compete for the national title next season. But with 17 returning starters it’s way too early to dismiss his squad for this season. Heisman Trophy candidate Noel Devine returns behind an offensive line that returns intact, and an underrated defense returns nine starters. West Virginia would be ranked higher if not for the uncertainty at quarterback, where two sophomores will battle for the job this spring.

21. Missouri
Gary Pinkel has built the Tigers into a perennial top 25 and postseason contender now. Last season they were expected to take a step back after the end of the Chase Daniels era, but Pinkel guided a young team to a solid 8-4 regular season in what was supposedly a rebuilding year. Now with 17 starters returning, including promising quarterback Blaine Gabbert, he’s got a shot to make it three Big 12 title game appearances in the last four years.

22. USC
All good things must come to an end, and when Mark Sanchez bolted early for the NFL draft a year ago with no obvious heir apparent for his job, and the Trojans lost a large portion of their brain trust to the University of Washington, it was clear the clock was ticking on their dynasty. Now Pete Carroll is also gone, and the top three underclassmen in the program are following him to the NFL as well. The Lane Kiffin era begins with just 12 returning starters, a bevy of talented youngsters in the pipeline, and a schedule that includes most of the big names coming to the Coliseum.

23. Georgia Tech
No team was hit harder by early entrants to the NFL draft. Florida may have lost more players, but the Yellow Jackets aren’t in a position to just reload like the Gators are. Paul Johnson lost four of the top five players in his program prematurely to the pros, but at least one of his 15 returning starters is quarterback Josh Nesbitt—a maestro at running Johnson’s triple-option attack. Road games at Kansas, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina won’t be easy.

24. Texas A&M
The heat is on Mike Sherman, but with perhaps the most dangerous quarterback returning in the Big 12 (Jerrod Johnson) to go along with 10 starters on defense, he might have enough talent to finally satisfy the tough-to-please people in College Station. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray could form one of the better rushing tandems in the country to boot. The schedule only features two games outside of the state of Texas, and one of those is versus neighboring Oklahoma State against the rebuilding Cowboys. Anything less than eight wins and the Aggie faithful should be disappointed.

25. LSU
The heat is inexplicably on Les Miles, who is just three years removed from winning a national championship. However, now that he’s done coaching Nick Saban’s recruits fans in Baton Rouge are grumbling that he’s not getting Nick Saban-like results, and having Saban back in the SEC and dominating at a division rival isn’t making life easier for Miles. Neither is the fact he’s returning the fewest starters in the SEC (9) and has a non-conference schedule that features North Carolina and West Virginia. Nevertheless, we’ll begrudgingly give the Tigers a spot in the top 25 at the moment out of respect for their program and their recruiting in recent years.

Honorable Mention:
26. Penn State, 27. Georgia, 28. Michigan, 29. Houston, 30. Washington.

Pre-Spring 2010 Big Ten Predictions
Ohio State (7-1, 11-1)
Iowa (7-1, 10-2)
Wisconsin (6-2, 9-3)
Penn State (5-3, 8-4)
Michigan (4-4, 8-4)
Michigan State (4-4, 8-4)
Purdue (3-5, 6-6)
Northwestern (3-5, 6-6)
Indiana (2-6, 6-6)
Illinois (2-6, 4-8)
Minnesota (1-7, 4-8)

BCS: Ohio State & Iowa
Capitol One: Wisconsin
Outback: Michigan
Gator: Penn State
Insight: Michigan State
Texas: Purdue
Dallas: Northwestern

Pre Spring 2010 Big 12 Predictions

NORTH
Nebraska (6-2, 9-3)
Missouri (5-3, 9-3)
Iowa State (4-4, 7-5)
Colorado (3-5, 6-6)
Kansas State (2-6, 6-6)
Kansas (2-6, 4-8)

SOUTH
Oklahoma (6-2, 10-2)
Texas (6-2, 10-2)
Texas A&M (5-3, 8-4)
Texas Tech (4-4, 8-4)
Oklahoma State (3-5, 7-5)
Baylor (2-6, 5-7)

BCS: Oklahoma & Texas
Cotton: Texas A&M
Alamo: Nebraska
Insight: Missouri
Holiday: Iowa State
Texas: Texas Tech
Yankee: Oklahoma State
Dallas: Kansas State

Early Entries to the 2010 NFL Draft

For the first time I can remember, the list of early entrants to the NFL draft isn’t littered with names of several young men obviously making mistakes. That is particularly surprising since the end of the current collective bargaining agreement likely brings with it a rookie wage scale included in the next one, so conventional wisdom heading into the season thought that scores of players would reach and be declaring early to try and beat the change. However, that’s not what happened at all. In fact, about the only player at a BCS conference school that I thought would have definitely improved his stock with another year in college is Michigan’s Donovan Warren.

Therefore it might be more interesting to look at who should’ve gone pro but didn’t. So here’s the top five players that should’ve paid attention to what happened to Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham last season (in alphabetical order):

Marvin Austin, North Carolina
Noel Devine, West Virginia
Greg Jones, Michigan State
Travis Lewis, Oklahoma
Jake Locker, Washington

Big Ten Rose Bowl Jinx?

According to my public school math, since the modern Big Ten/Pac-10 Rose Bowl agreement began in 1947, Big Ten teams are 16-8 in the Rose Bowl versus all other Pac-10 teams besides USC and UCLA. On the other hand, the Big Ten is 13-21 in Rose Bowl games versus UCLA and USC.

What does that mean?

It means having to play the Trojans and Bruins in virtual road games – where they don't have to alter their regular season preparation routines at all and the local walk-up crowd goes even further to create a home-field atmosphere – has been a tremendous advantage for those two programs and thus the Pac-10 over the past 60 years.


 
Does the Holiday Bowl fall down in the pecking order next year? How does ISU end up there? I thought that used to be Big12 #2/#3.
 
Pretty good write-up, Steve. Very early.

However, I'm pretty geeked, because this is definitely the year the Hawkeyes finish #1.

REASON: You see-------The past 2 years the Hawkeye FB team has finished, at least 10 spots ahead of their preseason position, in the FINAL POLL. And as long as the rag SI does not put any IOWA player on their wicked front cover, it's the Hawkeyes year.

:D
 
Predicting iowa with two loses next season? 7-1 big ten. I guess that lose is to OSU. So who are you predicting a non-conf lose to?
 
Thu, Sep 02 Northern Illinois Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Sep 11 Iowa at Iowa City, Iowa TBA
Sat, Sep 18 Utah Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Sep 25 Northern Iowa Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Oct 02 Texas Tech (Family Weekend) * Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Oct 09 Kansas State * at Kansas City, Mo. TBA
Sat, Oct 16 Oklahoma * at Norman, Okla. TBA
Sat, Oct 23 Texas * at Austin, Texas TBA
Sat, Oct 30 Kansas (Homecoming) * Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Nov 06 Nebraska * Ames, Iowa TBA
Sat, Nov 13 Colorado * at Boulder, Colo. TBA
Sat, Nov 20 Missouri * Ames, Iowa TBA


I'm interested how he thinks ISU gets to 7 wins with this schedule.
 
Thu, Sep 02 Northern Illinois Ames, Iowa TBA W
Sat, Sep 11 Iowa at Iowa City, Iowa TBA L
Sat, Sep 18 Utah Ames, Iowa TBA L
Sat, Sep 25 Northern Iowa Ames, Iowa TBA W
Sat, Oct 02 Texas Tech (Family Weekend) * Ames, Iowa TBA L
Sat, Oct 09 Kansas State * at Kansas City, Mo. TBA W
Sat, Oct 16 Oklahoma * at Norman, Okla. TBA L
Sat, Oct 23 Texas * at Austin, Texas TBA L
Sat, Oct 30 Kansas (Homecoming) * Ames, Iowa TBA W
Sat, Nov 06 Nebraska * Ames, Iowa TBA L
Sat, Nov 13 Colorado * at Boulder, Colo. TBA W
Sat, Nov 20 Missouri * Ames, Iowa TBA W


I'm interested how he thinks ISU gets to 7 wins with this schedule.

Just looking at, 6-6 seems doable, but you could make a case for them winning the Utah, Nebraska, and TTech games.
 
Predicting iowa with two loses next season? 7-1 big ten. I guess that lose is to OSU. So who are you predicting a non-conf lose to?

I believe Deace has us losing to Arizona and Michigan and beating Ohio State and going to the Rose Bowl. He had a post a few weeks back regarding this.

I think that is very possible. If Bulaga and Spievey would have came back, I feel we would have gone 11-1. Without those 2, I probably will predict 9-3 but am hoping for 10-2.
 
Just looking at, 6-6 seems doable, but you could make a case for them winning the Utah, Nebraska, and TTech games.

MAYBE 7-5 on the best of outcomes but you could just a easily see 4-8 or more realistically 5-7. That's with a win over UNI which they should but UNI has been a major thorn in the Clones sides (I think all Hawk fans know how sticky UNI can be). If they get bowl eligible I would think they'd have to be pretty happy with that.
 
Pre-Spring Preseason Top 25 for 2010

Big Ten Rose Bowl Jinx?

According to my public school math, since the modern Big Ten/Pac-10 Rose Bowl agreement began in 1947, Big Ten teams are 16-8 in the Rose Bowl versus all other Pac-10 teams besides USC and UCLA. On the other hand, the Big Ten is 13-21 in Rose Bowl games versus UCLA and USC.

What does that mean?

It means having to play the Trojans and Bruins in virtual road games – where they don't have to alter their regular season preparation routines at all and the local walk-up crowd goes even further to create a home-field atmosphere – has been a tremendous advantage for those two programs and thus the Pac-10 over the past 60 years.

Either that or USC and UCLA are traditionally better than anyone else in that conference. I think the road game angle on bowl games is overplayed by Big 10 people. Both teams arrive early and the stadium is very nearly 50/50...usually for the Big 10 attendance actually favors us. If USC and UCLA get a slight attendance advantage it's not a big enough deal to make up that big of a difference in record...they've just had better teams.

Alabama is 4-1-1 in the Rose Bowl...probably because they were the better team more often than not. And yes...wait for it...Indiana is 0-1.
 
No way Boise St should be #1 no matter how many starters hey have coming back. Not that I don't think they are good but if they get past Va Tech its basically a free pass to the NC game. I think any 11-1 BCS school deseves it more than a team that plays Boise St schedule.
 
Predicting iowa with two loses next season? 7-1 big ten. I guess that lose is to OSU. So who are you predicting a non-conf lose to?
Good question, but we do always seem to lose to at least one team that we shouldn't so I agree w/ his projections for the Hawks.
 
Either that or USC and UCLA are traditionally better than anyone else in that conference. I think the road game angle on bowl games is overplayed by Big 10 people. Both teams arrive early and the stadium is very nearly 50/50...usually for the Big 10 attendance actually favors us. If USC and UCLA get a slight attendance advantage it's not a big enough deal to make up that big of a difference in record...they've just had better teams.

Alabama is 4-1-1 in the Rose Bowl...probably because they were the better team more often than not. And yes...wait for it...Indiana is 0-1.

Except with USC and UCLA it is a road game for the Big 10. Those teams are at home, in LA. At anyrate, the B10's "lack" of success in the Rose Bowl is obviously overplayed. 29-29 isn't that bad.
 
No way Boise St should be #1 no matter how many starters hey have coming back. Not that I don't think they are good but if they get past Va Tech its basically a free pass to the NC game. I think any 11-1 BCS school deseves it more than a team that plays Boise St schedule.

This is very true...Boise can complain all they want but even when they do put a couple of games on their preseason schedule those games become their Superbowl and they can still walk through their conference schedule.

For the most part the best years Iowa has had have been our healthiest seasons. Imagine how much healthier we would be if we played the WAC instead of the Big Ten.

Not to mention the fact that if we have a letdown for even one game in the Big Ten...no matter who it is...we'll probably get beat. Luckily our letdowns this year happened against Boise level competition in UNI and Ark St and we were able to get it together for the 4th quarter against Indiana.

I remember watching Boise St play against Tulsa on a Thursday night and very nearly lose that game. I'm sure they had other letdowns during the season...there are only a couple of losable games on their entire schedule even if they play poorly.

I'm not saying they aren't as good as teams like Iowa...but that schedule gives them a nearly free pass and they just don't have to earn it like teams from the BCS conferences.
 
Either that or USC and UCLA are traditionally better than anyone else in that conference. I think the road game angle on bowl games is overplayed by Big 10 people. Both teams arrive early and the stadium is very nearly 50/50...usually for the Big 10 attendance actually favors us. If USC and UCLA get a slight attendance advantage it's not a big enough deal to make up that big of a difference in record...they've just had better teams.

Alabama is 4-1-1 in the Rose Bowl...probably because they were the better team more often than not. And yes...wait for it...Indiana is 0-1.

Except USC and UCLA don't have to arrive early...they're already there.

You think not traveling at all doesn't help?
 
Great work and an excellent read but two really laughable points:

1. Why the love affair with Boise "Cupcake" State? They don't play anybody!!! No way should they be in the national championship picture. NO WAY

2. MICHIGAN IN THE OUTBACK? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? YOU ARE VOTING WITH YOUR HEART, NOT YOUR HEAD.

MICHIGAN WILL STINK AGAIN
 
Great work and an excellent read but two really laughable points:

1. Why the love affair with Boise "Cupcake" State? They don't play anybody!!! No way should they be in the national championship picture. NO WAY

2. MICHIGAN IN THE OUTBACK? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? YOU ARE VOTING WITH YOUR HEART, NOT YOUR HEAD.

MICHIGAN WILL STINK AGAIN

I'd be willing to bet that Steve is betting on the bounce that RichRod's teams (at WVU anyway) had in year 3.
 

Latest posts

Top