Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread

[Fryowa]

People are overestimating the effect of NIL. It's going to be a big damn deal no doubt, but at the end of the day, the best players in the nation go to about the top ten schools in the country and that's going to continue to be the case. There's a finite amount of football talent in high school, it isn't like all of a sudden there's 150 new 5 star players that are all going to commit to Alabama.

Places like Iowa didn't get five star guys before, and they aren't going to start after.

I just hope the big earners get some financial counseling provided by their schools. The last thing we need to see is 18 year old dudes rollin' up to game days in their Benz looking like Floyd Mayweather's jewelry box exploded all over 'em and buying lake homes a couple doors down from Dabo Swinney. Get injured or fail to get drafted, and now you're Uncle Rico wearing a headset asking people if they want regular fries or curly. Some people's parents are going to have zero experience managing any amount of money and won't be able to give their kids advice.

And if you thought there were slime ball agents out there before this happened, you ain't seen nothin yet. A whole new pool opened up for inexperienced "agents" who steal kids' money and don't get them favorable deals.

The really, really sad thing about this is that no matter how much you counsel kids, there's no legal requirement that says they have to listen. It's their money and they can do what they want with it. There will be kids who go full Terrell Owens and end up offering $5 autographs on twitter.

 

[okeefe4prez]

People are overestimating the effect of NIL. It's going to be a big damn deal no doubt, but at the end of the day, the best players in the nation go to about the top ten schools in the country and that's going to continue to be the case. There's a finite amount of football talent in high school, it isn't like all of a sudden there's 150 new 5 star players that are all going to commit to Alabama.

Places like Iowa didn't get five star guys before, and they aren't going to start after.

I just hope the big earners get some financial counseling provided by their schools. The last thing we need to see is 18 year old dudes rollin' up to game days in their Benz looking like Floyd Mayweather's jewelry box exploded all over 'em and buying lake homes a couple doors down from Dabo Swinney. Get injured or fail to get drafted, and now you're Uncle Rico wearing a headset asking people if they want regular fries or curly. Some people's parents are going to have zero experience managing any amount of money and won't be able to give their kids advice.

And if you thought there were slime ball agents out there before this happened, you ain't seen nothin yet. A whole new pool opened up for inexperienced "agents" who steal kids' money and don't get them favorable deals.

The really, really sad thing about this is that no matter how much you counsel kids, there's no legal requirement that says they have to listen. It's their money and they can do what they want with it. There will be kids who go full Terrell Owens and end up offering $5 autographs on twitter.

I think NIL might spread talent around a little bit more. I think Bama and Clemson are going to be hurt by it. Georgia, Florida, Texas, ND, OSU, PSU, USC, Oregon and a few others will be huge beneficiaries of it. I think it could actually dilute the talent a little bit unless Phil Knight decides he wants to buy a dynasty up in Oregon. It really only would take Tennessee, Georgia and Florida each being able to siphon one top guy per class away from Alabama for Bama to fall from nearly invincible to still better than Iowa but not by that much.

 

[haydensly]

Football, as it declines, is going to become more regionalized. Fans in the west have plenty of outdoor activities year-round. The south and the SE are going to be the last bastions. The 40 and younger crowd just isn't as interested. Brain injuries will continue to downward pressure.

I agree with most of what you say. And if the game gets to where it's only big in the South I think the game itself declines. ESPN, instead of power brokering the system towards the SEC like they did with TX and OK, should be more interested in spreading the wealth around more. The game will suffer when only one part of the country cares. And I know it's like that today to some degree but I'm talking about parts of the country losing more interest than they have now (i.e. upper Midwest, pockets in the rest of the country).

 

[okeefe4prez]

I agree with most of what you say. And if the game gets to where it's only big in the South I think the game itself declines. ESPN, instead of power brokering the system towards the SEC like they did with TX and OK, should be more interested in spreading the wealth around more. The game will suffer when only one part of the country cares. And I know it's like that today to some degree but I'm talking about parts of the country losing more interest than they have now (i.e. upper Midwest, pockets in the rest of the country).

The game is already really only big in the southeast and midwest. The northeast is dead. The west coast only cares if they have a great local team.

 

[trj]

The game is already really only big in the southeast and midwest. The northeast is dead. The west coast only cares if they have a great local team.

Hasn’t that always been the case? The northeast prefers pro sports over collegiate sports by a wide margin. I am as old as F and it has always been like that. What you are saying has been the norm since my time on planet earth.

Bottom line, live sports are basically keeping network television alive. Until the moment where people don’t care about seeing sports in real time college football will be alright.

 

[HawkGold]

Hasn’t that always been the case? The northeast prefers pro sports over collegiate sports by a wide margin. I am as old as F and it has always been like that. What you are saying has been the norm since my time on planet earth.

Bottom line, live sports are basically keeping network television alive. Until the moment where people don’t care about seeing sports in real time college football will be alright.

No, USC, UCLA, Washington have always been pretty big though maybe Washington was maybe only a bit more than ISU. The Ducks made quite a run. Wash State has a solid regional following. ASU and AZ likely never outgrew their lower standing in the WAC. Colorado..up and down. Stanford and the other Cal schools you can make that case.

 

[tweeterhawk]

If true, very interesting.

https://twitter.com/geoffschwartz/status/1420750058132164610?s=20

 

[Fryowa]

If true, very interesting.

https://twitter.com/geoffschwartz/status/1420750058132164610?s=20

I'd imagine it's true. It's pretty telling that the only folks who think there's any value left in the B12 leftover squad are the fan bases of said teams.

If the B1G wanted any of those teams they'd be jumping on it now to try and get things in motion since TX and OK will likely not live out their contract with the B12. In today's world it would've been leaked by someone at this point. What you do hear being leaked is that the PAC and B1G don't want any of the orphans.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I'd imagine it's true. It's pretty telling that the only folks who think there's any value left in the B12 leftover squad are the fan bases of said teams.

If the B1G wanted any of those teams they'd be jumping on it now to try and get things in motion since TX and OK will likely not live out their contract with the B12. In today's world it would've been leaked by someone at this point. What you do hear being leaked is that the PAC and B1G don't want any of the orphans.

Like.

I saw that Bowlsby sent ESPN a cease and desist letter. Presumably that is because West Virginia may be talking to the ACC. Obviously, I don't know the full reasoning there, but I would likely not advise a client to do that. ESPN is the kingmaker in this situation. There's a damned good chance that ESPN will now refuse to negotiate with the Big 12 remnants, which will drive their media rights values even lower. CBS Sports Network, HERE WE COME!

ESPN can absolutely make arrangements for West Virginia for when the Big 12 media deal is over after the 2024-25 season. Even inducing a school to leave during the term might not be a breach of the agreement because the liquidated damages clause in the Grant of Rights Agreement presumably will keep the conference whole during the term of the agreement in the event someone leaves.

You never send a cease and desist letter to someone unless you intend to sue. A lawsuit of this magnitude would likely run up a million, maybe 2 million a month in legal fees just during discovery and over a million a week during a trial. In other words, I think you'd be looking at $20 million to get through a trial, assuming you hired a big firm capable of taking on a massive company like Disney. Disney will then have similar, if not greater fees.

There's also a good chance that the agreement has a fee shifting provision in it. If it does and you're the Big 12, you might be staring down $40 million of legal fees in the event you lose. Definitely at least $30 million. Let's assume West Virginia leaves, so you now have 7 teams and split the baby on costs and say it's $35 million. UT, OU and WV are going to vigorously object to a suit and likely try to extricate themselves from it, so assume 35/7. That's $5 million per school.

Put yourself in Pollard's shoes. You've just seen a hole ripped in your revenue model. Are you going to greenlight a case against the Kingmaker where you have a very wishy washy chance of winning and a potential $5 million cost if you lose? I think not.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

Like.

I saw that Bowlsby sent ESPN a cease and desist letter. Presumably that is because West Virginia may be talking to the ACC. Obviously, I don't know the full reasoning there, but I would likely not advise a client to do that. ESPN is the kingmaker in this situation. There's a damned good chance that ESPN will now refuse to negotiate with the Big 12 remnants, which will drive their media rights values even lower. CBS Sports Network, HERE WE COME!

2025: Independent Powerhouse Iowa State signs exclusivity deal with FS1 ala Notre Dame and NBC but for one one thousandth of the price, though Fox reserves the right to push the game to FS2 any week that they can schedule literally any other team for the timeslot.

 

[okeefe4prez]

2025: Independent Powerhouse Iowa State signs exclusivity deal with FS1 ala Notre Dame and NBC but for one one thousandth of the price, though Fox reserves the right to push the game to FS2 any week that they can schedule literally any other team for the timeslot.

Athletic Director Jamie Pollard had this to say: "We're extremely excited about this great deal. It gives us over $50,000 per home game televised and with an exciting home slate that includes heated rivals like Drake, Tennessee Tech, BYU, Tulsa, SMU, Kansas State and Akron, this promises to be one of the most memorable seasons ever for Iowa State football."

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

Athletic Director Jamie Pollard had this to say: "We're extremely excited about this great deal. It gives us over $50,000 per home game televised and with an exciting home slate that includes heated rivals like Drake, Tennessee Tech, BYU, Tulsa, SMU, Kansas State and Akron, this promises to be one of the most memorable seasons ever for Iowa State football."

God, I hope they make Drake a yearly game. The Bulldogs should've had that last one. As an aside, the AAC may want the Little 6 has-beens https://sports.yahoo.com/report-aac-attempting-eight-remaining-192507882.html

 

[okeefe4prez]

God, I hope they make Drake a yearly game. The Bulldogs should've had that last one. As an aside, the AAC may want the Little 6 has-beens https://sports.yahoo.com/report-aac-attempting-eight-remaining-192507882.html

I discussed that way above in this thread. The top of the AAC has better on field and economic prospects than the top of the Big 12. The bottom of the AAC is trash, but I think they could be dancing partners and I wouldn't be opposed to giving the conference champ of that thing an auto berth in a 12 team playoff. I believe the Big 12 has two options at this point - merge with the AAC or try to siphon off UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis. Might need SMU as well if West Virginia leaves.

 

[Ree4]

Like.

I saw that Bowlsby sent ESPN a cease and desist letter. Presumably that is because West Virginia may be talking to the ACC. Obviously, I don't know the full reasoning there, but I would likely not advise a client to do that. ESPN is the kingmaker in this situation. There's a damned good chance that ESPN will now refuse to negotiate with the Big 12 remnants, which will drive their media rights values even lower. CBS Sports Network, HERE WE COME!

ESPN can absolutely make arrangements for West Virginia for when the Big 12 media deal is over after the 2024-25 season. Even inducing a school to leave during the term might not be a breach of the agreement because the liquidated damages clause in the Grant of Rights Agreement presumably will keep the conference whole during the term of the agreement in the event someone leaves.

You never send a cease and desist letter to someone unless you intend to sue. A lawsuit of this magnitude would likely run up a million, maybe 2 million a month in legal fees just during discovery and over a million a week during a trial. In other words, I think you'd be looking at $20 million to get through a trial, assuming you hired a big firm capable of taking on a massive company like Disney. Disney will then have similar, if not greater fees.

There's also a good chance that the agreement has a fee shifting provision in it. If it does and you're the Big 12, you might be staring down $40 million of legal fees in the event you lose. Definitely at least $30 million. Let's assume West Virginia leaves, so you now have 7 teams and split the baby on costs and say it's $35 million. UT, OU and WV are going to vigorously object to a suit and likely try to extricate themselves from it, so assume 35/7. That's $5 million per school.

Put yourself in Pollard's shoes. You've just seen a hole ripped in your revenue model. Are you going to greenlight a case against the Kingmaker where you have a very wishy washy chance of winning and a potential $5 million cost if you lose? I think not.

From my understanding the Cease and Desist letter was sent because ESPN was allegedly actively tampering with other Big 12 schools - trying to convince them to leave so the Big 12 would dissolve.

This would eliminate the monetary penalty that OU and UT would have to pay for leaving the conference early. From what I've read, the Big 12 teams only get paid if the league stays around for 4 more years when the TV contract is up in 2025. That amount is negotiable but if teams start to crumble it could severely limit the remaining teams' bargaining power.

The interesting part will be if the final 8 teams can hang on for 4 years with drastically reduced revenue, I doubt it. They'll likely end up settling and move on IMO.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby alleges tampering by ESPN in cease and desist

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has issued a cease and desist letter to ESPN, asking the sports entertainment company for written assurances that it will stop trying to persuade Big 12 member schools to leave the conference.

theathletic.com

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

The interesting part will be if the final 8 teams can hang on for 4 years with drastically reduced revenue, I doubt it. They'll likely end up settling and move on IMO.

So really, the question is whether Pollard is petty enough to try to hold the band together. Short of a meaningful expansion, I don't think even his childishness can manage that.

 

[Ree4]

So really, the question is whether Pollard is petty enough to try to hold the band together. Short of a meaningful expansion, I don't think even his childishness can manage that.

Would have to convince the others to stay on too, seems like a tall task.

 

[BryceC]

No, USC, UCLA, Washington have always been pretty big though maybe Washington was maybe only a bit more than ISU. The Ducks made quite a run. Wash State has a solid regional following. ASU and AZ likely never outgrew their lower standing in the WAC. Colorado..up and down. Stanford and the other Cal schools you can make that case.

Washington State's stadium only seats 33K.

UCLA only has 25k season ticket holders.

USC averaged 43k fans in 2019.

The Pac 12 championship game has been viewed by hundreds of fans in person.

They might have cared more once upon a time but it's really not a conference that has institutions that care about sports.

 

[haydensly]

Like.

I saw that Bowlsby sent ESPN a cease and desist letter. Presumably that is because West Virginia may be talking to the ACC. Obviously, I don't know the full reasoning there, but I would likely not advise a client to do that. ESPN is the kingmaker in this situation. There's a damned good chance that ESPN will now refuse to negotiate with the Big 12 remnants, which will drive their media rights values even lower. CBS Sports Network, HERE WE COME!

ESPN can absolutely make arrangements for West Virginia for when the Big 12 media deal is over after the 2024-25 season. Even inducing a school to leave during the term might not be a breach of the agreement because the liquidated damages clause in the Grant of Rights Agreement presumably will keep the conference whole during the term of the agreement in the event someone leaves.

You never send a cease and desist letter to someone unless you intend to sue. A lawsuit of this magnitude would likely run up a million, maybe 2 million a month in legal fees just during discovery and over a million a week during a trial. In other words, I think you'd be looking at $20 million to get through a trial, assuming you hired a big firm capable of taking on a massive company like Disney. Disney will then have similar, if not greater fees.

There's also a good chance that the agreement has a fee shifting provision in it. If it does and you're the Big 12, you might be staring down $40 million of legal fees in the event you lose. Definitely at least $30 million. Let's assume West Virginia leaves, so you now have 7 teams and split the baby on costs and say it's $35 million. UT, OU and WV are going to vigorously object to a suit and likely try to extricate themselves from it, so assume 35/7. That's $5 million per school.

Put yourself in Pollard's shoes. You've just seen a hole ripped in your revenue model. Are you going to greenlight a case against the Kingmaker where you have a very wishy washy chance of winning and a potential $5 million cost if you lose? I think not.

The story that I read on ESPN.com said that the cease and desist letter was a reaction to the AAC looking to raid the remaining Big 12 teams, with ESPN involved. Did not refer to West Virginia.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

Washington State's stadium only seats 33K.

UCLA only has 25k season ticket holders.

USC averaged 43k fans in 2019.

The Pac 12 championship game has been viewed by hundreds of fans in person.

They might have cared more once upon a time but it's really not a conference that has institutions that care about sports.

You'd see an uptick in those numbers if UCLA and USC didn't suck. Washington State could pay for a new stadium with TV dollars from a Pac-12 Big Ten merger, though I don't see it happening.

 

[Fryowa]

Washington State's stadium only seats 33K.

UCLA only has 25k season ticket holders.

USC averaged 43k fans in 2019.

The Pac 12 championship game has been viewed by hundreds of fans in person.

They might have cared more once upon a time but it's really not a conference that has institutions that care about sports.

What's your endgame though as ISU? What is the case you're pleading?

However this shakes out and whatever you guys want to happen, it comes down to brand value and if you ain't got it, you ain't got it. Let's face it, if ISU sports had monetary value to anyone whether it's a TV network or athletic conference, we wouldn't be having this conversation. ISU and whoever else would have found a home by now, and if those other 8 schools were worth anything to TV networks OK and UT wouldn't be leaving. If the PAC and B1G wanted a team they would've started making hay already to try and stop some of the bleeding the SEC is causing. The clock is ticking cause' OK and UT ain't playing in your shambled conference next year.

It's a little bit like the argument of cutting non revenue programs during covid. Should the money makers (football) have to pay for the non-moneymakers (golf)? Just for the sake thereof? How is it any different that the money makers in a conference should be forced to stick around when there are better opportunities? Some of you guys say the should have to honor their contract...ok then, now you're in the same boat only you prolonged it by 4 years and made it worse by forcing two lame ducks to play three more years in a conference they don't want to be in (yeah that'll make good TV ). You still have the same problem regardless.

I get that it's an emotional issue for you as a clown fan. It would be for me too if it was happening to the Hawks. You think you're on the cusp of greatness because of a unicorn season and a coach who seems like he can't lose. (check out Iowa 2015 if you wanna see how that doesn't mean shit to the rest of the country). But there's zero demand for ISU's product outside of Iowa, and adding them to any conference is not going to add value to that conference. It's just diluting value by being another mouth to feed with a set number of TV dollars.. Again, if there were something to be had, ISU wouldn't be in this position.

I know you guys think ISU football is on a rocket ship to the moon with a trendy coach. But it's been 2 good years out of a hundred, the basketball program is a complete tire fire, and what else is there? If people are gonna say they should be in a P5 conference, then sell your case to the rest of the world.

People on your board are saying, "Yeah I can't wait for UT to have a losing record so the SEC looks like a bunch of idiots..." Well guess what, Jack, it ain't about wins. The SEC is gonna look like geniuses no matter what happens. UT has a F ton of value (revenue dollars) from fans whether they go undefeated or don't win a game. They have history and those fans are gonna watch TV commercials and buy tickets and hoodies and all kinds of stuff win or lose. And that's all that counts whether we want to admit it or not.