Would 6-12 in Big 10 Play Be Acceptable Next Year?

[DYK88]

Guys, this team is 2-3 years from doing anything good and actually contending for any kind of post-season play (without anymore transfers). He'll do enough to keep his job each year and we'll continue to be at the bottom of the BT standings. Barta just doesn't want to spend the $ on the buyout so were stuck with this crap for a while. I've stopped caring.

 

[McHawkin]

In regards to the topic, HELL NO!!! Better get this team to at least 8-10 Mr. Lickliter or pack your bags. Better at least get 18 wins next season IMO or pack your bags.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

If you set your expectations low, anything above said expectations is gravy.

That's up to you, but at the risk of offending, I think that is the problem with some of the fan base right now, and I feel you are setting your sights too low. I understand what you are getting at, where you don't want to feel disappointed by expecting too much, but I think as Hawkeye fans we should try to keep the pride that we used to have.

I don't know how old you are, Shada, but do you remember the days when we used to be in the NCAA Tournament nearly every year, 2 out of every 3 at least? Years like the past 3 in a row were the down years, and it didn't happen too often. When it did, we would bounce back the following year to be no worse than middle of the pack, or something like 4th or 5th in the conference and usually be right back in the NCAA tournament.

Iowa Basketball has pretty decent tradition. Not like UNC or Kansas, heck no. But we used to have a good, solid, winning tradition, and I don't think we should be willing to be content with going 6-12 in the conference. Iowa Basketball is better than that.

 

[IATrainMaster101]

I just don't want to go into the season hoping for great things only to be disappointed in the end. If you set your expectations low, anything above said expectations is gravy.

The last thing we as fans need to next year is what Iowa State fans did this year, when they all convinced themselves that the Clones had a Sweet 16 team this year.

Shane, I don't think this should be a question of fans getting their hopes up as much as it is fans getting their expectations up.

To me it seems only fair minded to extend this 4th year to Coach Lick, but in doing so it should come with a price and there is precedence for solid 1 year turn arounds.

I don't like attaching numbers because it's too black and white but we can look at Mr. Davis's turn around as something to shoot for. Lots of other things to consider but by the end of next year there should be a pretty mutually excepted fuzzy feeling about what's happening.

 

[lightning1]

No, it wont be acceptable. No, he wont make any kind of post season tournament.
No, he wont get fired. No, attendance wont improve.
No, I still wont watch.

 

[HeneryHawk]

After four years, anything less than a winning season(BT included) is failure. Numbers DO count, that is why they keep track of Wins and Losses.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

I've been watching these boards long enough before starting to post and it's easy to see where most posters stand on things, and yours is of little objectivity and low standards. Not trying to be mean towards you, just stating my clear observation and you're entitled to it. Iowa won't be anywhere close to an NCAA bid next year, and likely not even close to an NIT bid next season because getting into the NIT is nowhere as easy as it was in the past.

Objectivity is hard to find on any message board, and it's equally hard to find it when you're talking about your own team. If you consider my standards to be low, what do you consider yours to be? You've said more than once that you think Iowa basketball will eventually thought of the same way track and field and tennis are - those seem like pretty low standards.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

That's up to you, but at the risk of offending, I think that is the problem with some of the fan base right now, and I feel you are setting your sights too low. I understand what you are getting at, where you don't want to feel disappointed by expecting too much, but I think as Hawkeye fans we should try to keep the pride that we used to have.

I don't know how old you are, Shada, but do you remember the days when we used to be in the NCAA Tournament nearly every year, 2 out of every 3 at least? Years like the past 3 in a row were the down years, and it didn't happen too often. When it did, we would bounce back the following year to be no worse than middle of the pack, or something like 4th or 5th in the conference and usually be right back in the NCAA tournament.

Iowa Basketball has pretty decent tradition. Not like UNC or Kansas, heck no. But we used to have a good, solid, winning tradition, and I don't think we should be willing to be content with going 6-12 in the conference. Iowa Basketball is better than that.

Are we setting out sights to low, or is it a realistic expectation that a team this is likely going to finish with 22 losses to flirt with .500 next year? To me, a .500 record would show me that things are moving in the right direction, and would give everyone around the program (Barta, Todd, the team - everyone) legitimate hope for a breakout year in 2011-12.

I do remember Iowa teams getting into the tournament every year, or close to it, and I remember how exciting Davis' teams were, and I want those days to come back just as bad as everyone else does.

 

[trj]

Jon is right, I don't think you can quantify it with numbers.... I am not quite ready to start drinking the kool-aid like Stormin and some others. Right now, I am looking for the corner to be turned. That what I have seen the past 3+ years is in the past and the future looks bright.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Are we setting out sights to low, or is it a realistic expectation that a team this is likely going to finish with 22 losses to flirt with .500 next year? To me, a .500 record would show me that things are moving in the right direction, and would give everyone around the program (Barta, Todd, the team - everyone) legitimate hope for a breakout year in 2011-12.

In my opinion, a .500 record next year overall is definitely realistic. At 15-17 last year, that's really only a 1-game swing away from being right there at 16-16.

I guess it depends on how we arrive at that .500 record. If the conference schedule is loaded with cupcakes and we go 10-3, but go 6-12 and end up at 16-15, that will be tough to answer as to how I would feel about that. I can't say I'd be pleased with a 6-12 conference record, unless we get a couple wins over ranked teams and are competetive in defeat. In other words, I'll need to actually watch the season unfold to see how I really feel about it.

That said, I haven't seen the non-conference schedule for next year, but I'm expecting it to be pretty soft next year. If that's the case, and we go 7-11 or 8-10 in conference, that would probably get us into the 17-18 win range. I would be satisifed with that result next year, I think. Enough to say Lickliter should get year 5, but that's just me. Others will doubtless disagree.

I don't want to put an "X number of wins" tag on it either, but I don't think anybody is asking the team to walk on water to get 7 or 8 conference wins, though. Just my opinion.

 

[tm3308]

I feel like if Lick does one or more of the following three things next year, then he should be given the 5th year:

1. Make the NIT
2. Finish 8-10 or better in Big Ten play
3. Win 17 or more games


If he can do any of the three, I'd be fairly satisfied. That's not where I want the program to be for the rest of eternity, but as far as next year is concerned, I'd be happy with that. That would show me considerable improvement. If he makes the NIT, then we'd be making progress, even if he didn't meet our wins 'requirement'. If he wins 8 or more Big Ten games, then the team will have shown themselves more competitive in-conference, which is what most people are concerned about right now. Least important is the total wins. That can be beefed up by weak non-conference. So that would have to be tied with at least 7 BT wins, IMO. But an NIT berth would cover him completely for next year, IMO.

 

[rjhindm]

I want 10 Big Ten wins....period...I know that is a long shot. I like the class coming in...and assuming everyone stays I can see us getting between 15-20 wins next year and MAYBE a NIT....Is this Acceptable? It would seem amazing after the last couple years...

 

[ColumbusHawk]

Six wins in the conference would be fifty percent more than Davis had in his fourth season. Also, Lick did not inherit the most talented team in the country.

 

[creslinhawk]

Beating all the cupcakes in the non-conference would be a good start towards showing improvement.

 

[DDThompson]

If the Hawks win today and lose out on the road then next year 6-12 level would only be a two game improvement in the Big10. If by some miracle, the Hawks beat the Goophers, then that's only a one game improvement.

To quote a very famous president, "Let me be clear . . . I consider that to be unacceptable."

 

[hawkfarmer]

I don't feel like we can make it to 6 big ten wins. Everyone in the big ten is getting better, and not going to lose to much. And are our freshman (with pending transfers) going to save us? I hope i'm wrong, but i doubt it.

 

[tm3308]

I don't feel like we can make it to 6 big ten wins. Everyone in the big ten is getting better, and not going to lose to much. And are our freshman (with pending transfers) going to save us? I hope i'm wrong, but i doubt it.

I don't see how it's so hard to imagine. Penn State is in even worse shape than we are. We've proven that we can beat Northwestern. Purdue loses Kramer and Grant for sure, Johnson and Moore have decisions to make. Hummel is the only one I feel is a lock to come back. Michigan loses Sims, maybe Harris (but Sims is the one that's killed us that past few years. Without him, I feel like we can sweep them next year). Michigan State may lose Lucas, Morgan is a senior. But they'll just reload. Ohio State will probably lose Turner, and we were pretty close to beating them twice this year even with Turner there. Wisconsin will not drop off much, if at all (they're my pick to win the Big Ten next year). Indiana should be another two wins. Illinois is going to be a very good team next year, with only two seniors this year (who average a combined 13 minutes per game). Minnesota I'll admit I don't know much of anything about, so I won't offer an opinion there.

But I could see (not saying it WILL happen, but I could see it):

Sweeps of Penn State, Michigan, Indiana. Right there is your six wins.

Splits with Northwestern, Minnesota (maybe), Ohio State, and Purdue if either Johnson/Moore leave for NBA.

We get swept by MSU, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Purdue if neither Johnson/Moore leave early.

But that could put us at 10 wins in the Big Ten next year. I know that seems like such a ridiculous long shot, but it really is within reach next year (provided we don't have any transfers, epsecially from core players).

 

[NewMexHawk]

The Big 10 had a down year. I would expect Iowa to be much better next year. Everything is in place for success.

They will have much experience and freshmen for depth. They should go to the NCAA Tournament. If Lickliter's experiment is going to be successful it should begin next year.

 

[burky247]

No it won't be acceptable. And no, it won't matter anyway. As long as Barta is in the AD office, I doubt we will see a change. I've come to grips with that. We may as well get use to 1 NCAA appearance every four years or so.

The fact that an NIT berth in year 4 is deemed acceptable shows how far we have sunk.

 

[glidinghawk]

Six wins in the conference would be fifty percent more than Davis had in his fourth season. Also, Lick did not inherit the most talented team in the country.

Lick's best year in Big Ten play (6-12) was his first year, when most of the roster consisted of Alford recruits.

Lick's worst year in Big Ten play (probably 4-14) is the current year, when most of the roster consists of his own recruits.

'Nuf said.

GlidingHawk