Why this team is dramatically better next year

BSpringsteen

BSpringsteen

Well-Known Member
This is a theory and a theory only... and while I think it is true, I am not sure it translates into wins. What it does do, is translates into a dramatically more competitive team.

Right now, we don't have enough players to even have a competitive practice.

With the four recruits we have coming in next year, plus Archie we have the following:

Payne
Tucker
Gatens
Fuller
Cole
May
Cougil
Brommer

Archie
Brust
Marble
McCabe
Larson

The last five replace...

Bawinkle
Lickliter
Nearl? Who the hell is Nearl?

How much better are the practices going to be?
How much faster paced?
How much deeper is our bench in games?

If Tucker comes back, we have a legitimate 12 man rotation... even if McCabe and Larson are a little raw, that is a legit 10 man rotation.

The faster pace will increase the development of Gatens, May, Payne etc...

When you talk about why Lickliter is going to get another year, it isn't because of the recruits on their own, it is because of what having those recruits does to our existing players.
 
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Extra depth will help. Like you said, practices should be a lot better one would think, and also the potential to maybe pick up the pace during games a little but, although I would expect us to still play a half-court style game for the most part.

But add another recruiting class that is supposedly doing very well in high school this year, and another year of experience for everyone on the roster, and I think it's reasonable to expect quite a few more W's next year.

Whether that happens or not, we can only wait until next year to find out. If that team struggles, well, let's not go there because we all know what the reaction will be.

The next 12 months or so are going to tell us everything we need to know about the Lickliter era, IMO. Any more transfers, and if not, how good will the team be next year with a full roster?
 
the fact that matt gatens is leading all big ten players in minutes and cully payne is leading all big ten freshmen in minutes has been a negative this year but will be a positive next year. having an experienced starting five should help us win the early season "guarantee" games easily and be competitive against legitimate teams. it's tough to do that with guys playing their first month of college basketball (unless they are named john wall).
 
Well, we can't be any worse next season!

I have been very critical of the basketball program lately but when I look at the possible roster next year I can't believe how dramatically different this team is going to be!! Now, we are still going to be very young but at least we will have enough bodies to give breathers to the starters. I'm not going to claim this team makes the NCAA tournament but with the amount of kids that will actually contribute minutes will make for better practice and we now will have guys playing with rest next season during games.

The difference between another mediocre season and a complete turnaround will depend on the progress of the current players, how current recruits respond to the Big Ten level and ultimately how the coaching staff utilizes the players. Next season will be the first time in Lick's tenure where he's had this many players to manage. Will he do substitution patterns a la Davis style or keep it as is? Does he change his style of play to the strengths of the teams' talents? It will be interesting for sure and gives reason to be a little optimistic. I say this team needs to be and SHOULD be a .500 team. For next year's team to be considered a success I would say an appearance in some sort of postseason tournament would be reasonable.
 
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When you add May to your list, that gives us 13 guys who,in theory, could go out on the floor and look like they belong....now,that is in theory only because we have yet to see Marble,Brust,McCabe,Larson and Archie on the floor...usually frosh are skinny..and I suspect that Marble ,Brust and McCabe will look a bit thin out there vs most Big Ten teams who will be older...

I agree that in 12 months,Licks fate will be just about decided,one way or another...lets hope we are battling for a tourny bid right now and the jury is still out.
 
HawkeyeRyno said:
Well, we can't be any worse next season!

I have been very critical of the basketball program lately but when I look at the possible roster next year I can't believe how dramatically different this team is going to be!! Now, we are still going to be very young but at least we will have enough bodies to give breathers to the starters. I'm not going to claim this team makes the NCAA tournament but with the amount of kids that will actually contribute minutes will make for better practice and we now will have guys playing with rest next season during games.

The difference between another mediocre season and a complete turnaround will depend on the progress of the current players, how current recruits respond to the Big Ten level and ultimately how the coaching staff utilizes the players. Next season will be the first time in Lick's tenure where he's had this many players to manage. Will he do substitution patterns a la Davis style or keep it as is? Does he change his style of play to the strengths of the teams' talents? It will be interesting for sure and gives reason to be a little optimistic. I say this team needs to be and SHOULD be a .500 team. For next year's team to be considered a success I would say an appearance in some sort of postseason tournament would be reasonable.
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So far, Lick has seemed to prefer a short rotation,but that may be by necessity.
Having 13 guys who think they should play is also a potential issue for lick.
I hope we have compliant frosh who are willing to redshirt...ie..Marble,or McCabe...whoever will play the least...Bo Ryan manages to get kids to buy into that concept...but you need a strong leader to sell it successfully and keep those kids on board over a long year of sitting.
 
JHHawk said:
So far, Lick has seemed to prefer a short rotation,but that may be by necessity.
Having 13 guys who think they should play is also a potential issue for lick.
I hope we have compliant frosh who are willing to redshirt...ie..Marble,or McCabe...whoever will play the least...Bo Ryan manages to get kids to buy into that concept...but you need a strong leader to sell it successfully and keep those kids on board over a long year of sitting.
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Good point about Bo. They way he gets a big to redshirt and still improve is a big part of his success. Much like Iowa football. I am very interested to see the development of Archie and if this redshirt was a good idea.

I do hope that a full compliment of players will help in practice. Hopefully going against better players on the second team will translate into a much quicker start next year. We need at least 9 wins in out of conference to have a shot at a decent year.
 
While we may win more games next year, the fact remains will more wins be enough to build interest in the program again? Unless Lick feels he needs to change his style, I'm not sure I get overly excited with 60 point games. I just don't understand how he wouldn't allow the team to open up a bit more next year with all the depth. I look forward to watching the new faces next season but that feeling may get worn out once I've seen the team play a few times and it ends with the same results as the past three years. Not sure more wins will be enough to regain interest back to what it was.
 
i haven't seen many posts about redshirting yet with the exception of jhhawk's. but it has to be a consideration if no one transfers or gets injured/arrested in the preseason, right? it would take a lot of onions on lickliter's part, because he's going to be coaching for a contract next year. but for long term purposes i think you've got to redshirt one of the bigs, either mccabe or larson. between fuller, cole, brommer, archie, and those two we've got six power forward types.

i suppose it comes down to how good mccabe and larson look in preseason. if either of them show the potential to have an immediate impact, lick is going to have to play them and brommer and/or archie will spend 99% of the season on the bench.
 
olivecourt said:
the fact that matt gatens is leading all big ten players in minutes.
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Just wondering why the Big Ten announcers always say Juice Thompsen from Northwestern is leading the conference in minutes played. Not that it matters much cause Matt does play a ton.
 
Just a thought but I don't think any of this makes much difference if we don't have someone that can get to the hoop when the shot clock is running down.
 
BSpringsteen said:
This is a theory and a theory only... and while I think it is true, I am not sure it translates into wins. What it does do, is translates into a dramatically more competitive team.

Right now, we don't have enough players to even have a competitive practice.

With the four recruits we have coming in next year, plus Archie we have the following:

Payne
Tucker
Gatens
Fuller
Cole
May
Cougil
Brommer

Archie
Brust
Marble
McCabe
Larson

The last five replace...

Bawinkle
Lickliter
Nearl? Who the hell is Nearl?

How much better are the practices going to be?
How much faster paced?
How much deeper is our bench in games?

If Tucker comes back, we have a legitimate 12 man rotation... even if McCabe and Larson are a little raw, that is a legit 10 man rotation.

The faster pace will increase the development of Gatens, May, Payne etc...

When you talk about why Lickliter is going to get another year, it isn't because of the recruits on their own, it is because of what having those recruits does to our existing players.
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So I am curious: What will the Lick lovers say next year if we only notch 13 or 14 wins? Are you still going to keep drinking the Lickliter koolaid? Remember guys ... we are adding four freshmen next year! Freshmen! To the Lick lovers who keep using the excuse of how young we are what possibly do you think four freshmen are going to add next year besides more bodies in practice ...
 
I am looking to be relevant and competitive next year. If that translates to wins, so be it.

What I want is to honestly believe that we have a chance in every game. If I don't believe that, I am done with lick

Edit: I am not a lick lover, I wouldn't shed a tear if he were fired this year. My point is the team will be better next year and that will be a more honest indictment of him as a coach.
 
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DesMoinesHawki said:
So I am curious: What will the Lick lovers say next year if we only notch 13 or 14 wins? Are you still going to keep drinking the Lickliter koolaid? Remember guys ... we are adding four freshmen next year! Freshmen! To the Lick lovers who keep using the excuse of how young we are what possibly do you think four freshmen are going to add next year besides more bodies in practice ...
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I think most people that don't want Lick fired immediately all agree that if we only get 13-14 wins next year and less than 7-8 big ten wins than it is time to pull the plug. This is barring catastrophic injuries to a couple players. To answer your question about the freshman...I think most people are expecting more than just warm bodies for practice but also that none will be an instant impact player. I hope that at least two will be in the regular 9 man rotation that Lick will probably use. I think the main chance for success for next year will be Fuller, Gatens, Tucker, Payne, May and Cougill all improving their games.
 
Having more competitive practices should be of some help, but I've seen teams that were short on numbers still be very good teams. If nothing else, Lick will have more realistic options to use when someone on the court needs some "teaching time" on the bench.

You may not have meant "rotation" in this sense, but IMO Lick will never have a double-digit rotation of players playing meaningful minutes regularly. Even Tom Davis, who placed more aerobic demands on his players than Lick's system does, usually had a rotation of no more than nine. The key for improvement next year is to have improvement from the current group and having at least a player or two from the incoming class come in and be ready to help as freshmen.

It may be more realistic, based on what we see right now, to look for significant improvement in competitiveness but not in wins. However, unlike what some say is Barta's outlook, next year is not Year 1 of Lickliter's time at Iowa, it is Year 4. If by the end of Year 4 we are not at least knocking on the door of some postseason tournament (after all, between the two tournaments for also-rans, I believe a third of Div. I is covered), that would be quite enough of the Lickliter Era for my taste.

But my last name isn't Barta. My first name isn't Gary either, but you get the gist of the point. ;-)

If we aren't at least knocking on the door of one of the lesser postseason tournaments, I am as certain of this as of the sun rising in the East: Lickliter, Barta and all of their surrogates will once again be explaining away the continued futility by pointing out that "we're a young team."
 
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Reign is correct...

Unless we have someone who can get to the basket and a post man we have the same problems we have this year. Against big teams we will have problems going inside just like this year and we will be forced into bombing from the outside just like this year. Without a playmaker same thing.

Same sets of problems, just more people to be on the floor so fans can say,...the team is young, wait until these freshmen are sophomores...

The freshmen will have to learn the "system" and we all know how difficult that is. Players don't just learn Lick's system...it takes a long long time to learn this system...we all know it takes 2 or 3 years to be proficient in this system. Gatens' class might be graduated before next year's class is comfortable with the system.
 
Anyone hanging the success of next year's team on more competitive practices has never played basketball...that is football talk...
 
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