Why is McNutt only a 4th round projection?

DuffMan

DuffMan

Well-Known Member
Is it just B10/Iowa bias?

He's got elite size.
He's got elite production.
He's got elite hands.
He's got solid speed
He's got above average athleticism.

If he played for Bama would he be a 2nd round guy?
 
1. He's a WR from the Big Ten.
2. He's new to the position.
3. "Solid speed" is generous - in the Big Ten, yes, in the NFL, no.
4. His team went 7-6 last year, and he lacks exposure as a consequence.
 
I think there are a few things. 1. His speed is not elite, and some don't consider him a down field threat. 2. He is still developing and is not an elite 1st or 2nd round talent yet, though he may have the best career of the receivers in this class 3. It's a deep WR class
 
If I could do away with any word relating to analyzing prospects it would without question be "elite". McNutt isn't elite, period. Randy Moss was elite. Andrew Luck is elite. Elite players and talent are few and far between.

I said months ago that I don't see McNutt going any higher than late 3rd round. I am not sure he even goes in the 4th at this point.

At best, he's a respectable NFL project for maybe being a decent #2 WR.
 
There are a hundred other guys who can do what he does. Not trying to knock the guy, but he doesn't stand out in any one area except maybe size.
When teams tried to shut him down, they did. A decent corner can dominate him.
He'll still get drafted. And I think he'll have a decent career because he's a quality individual. Don't think he'll be on my fantasy team though.
 
I was wondering the same thing. I think he may not get drafted really high, but I think he'll be a great pick for whichever team picks him.

Here are weaknesses by one scout:

Doesn’t have great speed and will struggle in the vertical passing game. Was largely shut down by the better corners he faced in 2011, including Oklahoma's Jamell Fleming and Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard. Has very little burst in his game.
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Here ESPN's evaluation of him. I don't know that I agree with it all, but nothing really stands out about him if these things are true.

SCOUTS INC. PLAYER EVALUATIONS

ProfileScouting CombineConversation

OVERALL FOOTBALL TRAITS

Production 3 "2007: Redshirt. 2008: (3/0) - 1-11 2009: (12/5) - 34-674-19.8-8 2010: (13/13) - 53-861-16.2-8 2011: (13/13) -- 82-1,315-16-12"

Height-Weight-Speed 2 Above average blend of height and weight along with good top-end speed. Average arm length (32) and big hands (10).

Durability 4 Missed 2008 Minnesota game with an injury. Missed 2009 Wisconsin game with an injury. Left 2010 Ball State game with a lower body injury. Missed 2011 spring practices while recovering from shoulder and thumb surgeries. Right shoulder injury prevented him from benching at the Combine.

Intangibles 1 Selected as a permanent team captain as a senior. Named to team's leadership group all five years at Iowa. Recipient of team's leadership award for offense in 2007. Winner of coaches' appreciation award for offense in 2009. Started to practice at wide receiver during the 2008 season and made transition from quarterback in spring of 2009.

1 = EXCEPTIONAL 2 = ABOVE AVERAGE 3 = AVERAGE 4 = BELOW AVERAGE 5 = MARGINAL

WIDE RECEIVER SPECIFIC TRAITS

Separation Skills 2 Flashes some savvy with routes and gives quick head and shoulder fakes at the top of routes. Does a nice job of gaining initial leverage within stem before setting it back vertical to give him a two way go on defenders. Not overly explosive but smooth getting in and out of breaks. Rolls it cleanly when executing speed cuts. Wades through traffic well and has a good feel for soft spots in zone coverage. Displays quick feet to get clean release but will have too much initial wasted motion on occasion.

Ball Skills 2 "Possesses natural hands. Rarely allows ball into frame and shows a quick and natural pluck. Displays above-average body control and can open up hips and make catch on a ball thrown behind him. Tracks the ball well over his shoulder. Big hands provide him with the ability to make one-handed catches (See 1st QTR Michigan State, 2011)."

Big play ability 3 "Not a burner that will run by you, but sets up defenders and has enough top end speed to occasionally get behind coverage. Tracks the deep ball well and can adjust to win one-on-one battles. Makes a quick transition up the field after the catch. Sneaky run-after-catch ability, not overly elusive but is shifty enough in the open field to make defenders miss without breaking stride. "

Competitiveness 2 Tough and willing to work the middle of the field. Displays good focus and fights for the ball in traffic. Runs hard and fights for extra yards. Gives consistent effort as a run blocker and works to sustain blocks. Shows good field and sideline awareness. Wore down a bit during the two-minute drill late in the first half of the 2011 Michigan State game and did not come off the ball with the same sense of urgency.

1 = EXCEPTIONAL 2 = ABOVE AVERAGE 3 = AVERAGE 4 = BELOW AVERAGE 5 = MARGINAL
Click to expand...
 
Agreed. Unbelievable hands(many unreal one-handed grabs), athleticism, size, thought he had a great 40-time at combine too. Thought Shon Greene was underrated (not drafted until day 3 of draft), but his NFL production has been on par with draft status. Hope McAwesome proves the 'experts' wrong.
 
wundergrape said:
1. He's a WR from the Big Ten.
2. He's new to the position.
3. "Solid speed" is generous - in the Big Ten, yes, in the NFL, no.
4. His team went 7-6 last year, and he lacks exposure as a consequence.
Click to expand...

4.54 puts him squarly in the middle (20th out of 40) out of WR's invited to the combine. That sure says "solid speed" to me.
 
1hawkeye1 said:
There are a hundred other guys who can do what he does. Not trying to knock the guy, but he doesn't stand out in any one area except maybe size.
When teams tried to shut him down, they did. A decent corner can dominate him.
He'll still get drafted. And I think he'll have a decent career because he's a quality individual. Don't think he'll be on my fantasy team though.
Click to expand...

There aren't 100 other guys who can do what he does. He was one of the top 2-3 receivers in the college game last year, in a passing game that isn't really known for showcasing the position.
 
This is what is the killer for McNutt right now and this is all true.

Quote:
Doesn’t have great speed and will struggle in the vertical passing game. Was largely shut down by the better corners he faced in 2011, including Oklahoma's Jamell Fleming and Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard. Has very little burst in his game.
 
DuffMan said:
There aren't 100 other guys who can do what he does. He was one of the top 2-3 receivers in the college game last year, in a passing game that isn't really known for showcasing the position.
Click to expand...
One of the top 2-3 receivers in the college game? Even you don't believe that.
 
DuffMan said:
4.54 puts him squarly in the middle (20th out of 40) out of WR's invited to the combine. That sure says "solid speed" to me.
Click to expand...


Yeah, at the combine. NFL speed is well beyond combine speed, which, when last I checked is comprised of guys trying to scratch and claw just to get into the league.
 
DuffMan said:
4.54 puts him squarly in the middle (20th out of 40) out of WR's invited to the combine. That sure says "solid speed" to me.
Click to expand...


Really?

Shouldn't the speed comparison be to existing NFL receivers, not to folks the vast majority of whom will not be in the NFL three years from now?
 
wundergrape said:
Yeah, at the combine. NFL speed is well beyond combine speed, which, when last I checked is comprised of guys trying to scratch and claw just to get into the league.
Click to expand...

Yep--you beat me to it.

Prediction: Duff will not back down from his "solid speed" statement, however.
 
Fair or not, he's being judged by his production against good competition and not by his record-breaking career. Marvin struggled against projected 3rd or 4th rounders Leonard Johnson and Alphonso Dennard (before he punched a cop). So with that I think 4th round is quite generous. He's a professional though and he will be successful regardless of when he's picked.
 
I think 3rd or 4th round is about right for McNutt. He is not going to be the number 1 option for whatever team he is on. He will not draw the top corner in every matchup. If drafted by the right team to be a 2, 3, or 4 WR I think he can make a pretty decent career.
I don't know what else can reasonably be expected out of the guy.
 
DuffMan said:
Is it just B10/Iowa bias?

He's got decent size.
He's had above average production.
He's got good hands.
He's got OK speed
He's got above average athleticism.

If he played for Bama would he be a 2nd round guy?
Click to expand...

I took the liberty to remove elite in your analysis because A, you're wrong and B, that word is overused.

To suggest he would be a 2nd rounder had he played at 'bama is insulting to the people that evaluate and rank prospects for a living and it's naive on your part.

Remember, when McNutt played against decent D's last season he struggled. It's one thing to make Indiana's D look silly, which he did, and quite another to produce against PSU or Nebraska, which he didn't.

It's difficult, but sometimes you need to remove hawk blinders and try to gain perspective and objectivity.
 
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