So a buddy of mine was asking me if it was concievable to clinch the Rose Bowl before we got to Columbus. I'm not sure thats possible, but it would be all but clinched under the following, fairly realistic scenario.
Iowa wins their next three games (obviously)
Michigan wins at home against Penn State
Penn State wins at home against Ohio State
This would then guarantee that no one in the Big Ten could finish better than 6-2, and thus Iowa would have already clinched a share of the Big Ten title.
Now then under the worst case scenario which would be losses at Ohio State and home against Minnesota (unrealistic in its own right). First of all for the purposes of this discussion we're going to assume that Purdue will lose another game, and Minnesota will lose a game to someone besides Iowa.
Iowa would have already beaten Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State. The only team in the discussion they would not have a tiebreaker over would be Ohio State. However that tiebreaker would only come into play in a two way tiebreaker OR a three way tiebreaker with Michigan State
Did I lose you yet?
The only way for Iowa to not go to the Rose Bowl here would be if they tied with Ohio State and no one else at 6-2 or a three way tie that includes Michigan State (or 4 ways with Wisky).
For that to happen..
Michigan State has to win all their remaining games other than Iowa (at Minnesota, vs. Penn State, and at Purdue)
-This forces a three way tie between Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State. They would eliminate MSU from the tiebreaker based on their 9-3 overall record, and revert to the two way tiebreaker which Ohio State would win based on a head to head win over Iowa. If Wisconsin was in there in a 4 way tie then Michigan State would be eliminated first again, and Ohio State would have head to head wins over the two remaining teams.
Or if Michigan State was to fall to Penn State then Penn State would need to lose one of the following games
at Northwestern
vs. Indiana
AND Wisconsin has to lose one of the following games
vs. Purdue
at Indiana
vs. Michigan
vs. Northwestern
That would force a two way tie with OSU.
So basically. Here's who you cheer for
Michigan against Penn State
Penn State every week after they play Michigan
Wisconsin in all their remaining games
Sorry for the lengthy post. My head hurts.
Iowa wins their next three games (obviously)
Michigan wins at home against Penn State
Penn State wins at home against Ohio State
This would then guarantee that no one in the Big Ten could finish better than 6-2, and thus Iowa would have already clinched a share of the Big Ten title.
Now then under the worst case scenario which would be losses at Ohio State and home against Minnesota (unrealistic in its own right). First of all for the purposes of this discussion we're going to assume that Purdue will lose another game, and Minnesota will lose a game to someone besides Iowa.
Iowa would have already beaten Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State. The only team in the discussion they would not have a tiebreaker over would be Ohio State. However that tiebreaker would only come into play in a two way tiebreaker OR a three way tiebreaker with Michigan State
Did I lose you yet?
The only way for Iowa to not go to the Rose Bowl here would be if they tied with Ohio State and no one else at 6-2 or a three way tie that includes Michigan State (or 4 ways with Wisky).
For that to happen..
Michigan State has to win all their remaining games other than Iowa (at Minnesota, vs. Penn State, and at Purdue)
-This forces a three way tie between Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State. They would eliminate MSU from the tiebreaker based on their 9-3 overall record, and revert to the two way tiebreaker which Ohio State would win based on a head to head win over Iowa. If Wisconsin was in there in a 4 way tie then Michigan State would be eliminated first again, and Ohio State would have head to head wins over the two remaining teams.
Or if Michigan State was to fall to Penn State then Penn State would need to lose one of the following games
at Northwestern
vs. Indiana
AND Wisconsin has to lose one of the following games
vs. Purdue
at Indiana
vs. Michigan
vs. Northwestern
That would force a two way tie with OSU.
So basically. Here's who you cheer for
Michigan against Penn State
Penn State every week after they play Michigan
Wisconsin in all their remaining games
Sorry for the lengthy post. My head hurts.
