Which scenerio gives us best BCS title game chance?

briankaldenberg

briankaldenberg

Well-Known Member
This is all assuming we win the other games against Indiana, NW and Minnesota.

1. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Michigan State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin loses to OSU, we beat #14-16ish 6-1 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #2 10-0 Ohio State, OSU beats 1-loss Michigan in finale where OSU finishes ranked 7ish and Michigan finishes #12ish

2. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Michigan State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin loses to OSU, we beat #14-16ish 6-1 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #2 10-0 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan beats OSU in finale, where Michigan finishes ranked #7ish and OSU #12ish

3. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Michigan State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin beats OSU, we beat #5-7ish 7-0 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #7-9ish 9-1 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan beats OSU in finale where Michigan finishes ranked #7is and OSU finishes #17ish

4. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Michigan State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin beats OSU, we beat #5-7ish 7-0 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #7-9ish 9-1 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan loses to OSU in finale where Michigan finishes ranked #13ish and OSU finishes #11ish
 
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Definitely option 2.

edit:now that you have added options, I have no idea if I stand by this or not. :(
 
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Iowa has to win out. Ohio state has to lose to 1 other big ten foe.
I think Alabama has to win out also.
If Alabama has 1 loss and Boise or TCU is undefeated. I think Iowa would not be in.
Alabama vs TCU/Boise if both are unbeaten.
If Alabama wins out I think a 1 loss big ten champ Iowa would get a shot.
Lets see if we can get by Penn State first.
 
Forgetting something, Brian?

Anyway, don't worry about it. Let's focus on supporting the team this week, and then next week. You get the idea. If it happens to pan out by the end of the year, then great! But let's quit analyzing it. Let's revisit this in December or around ThxGvg time.
 
Oh, no options. And here I thought you were going to offer up choices (you used which instead of what.):)
 
I think scenario #1 is the best and if Wisconsin's only losses could be us, OSU and Michigan that would help more too because they'd be ranked in the low 20's likely. Arizona winning the Pac 10 would also be huge.
 
If we finish the Big 10 undefeated and beat OSu the 2nd to last game of the year, there is NO way they will chose OSU over Iowa. Iowa wins the conference and beats them head up.

They could go with a no loss Boise St. or TCU but they will get killed in the computers.
 
briankaldenberg said:
This is all assuming we win the other games against Indiana, NW and Minnesota.

1. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Penn State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin loses to OSU, we beat #14-16ish 6-1 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #2 10-0 Ohio State, OSU beats 1-loss Michigan in finale where OSU finishes ranked 7ish and Michigan finishes #12ish

2. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Penn State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin loses to OSU, we beat #14-16ish 6-1 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #2 10-0 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan beats OSU in finale, where Michigan finishes ranked #7ish and OSU #12ish

3. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Penn State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin beats OSU, we beat #5-7ish 7-0 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #7-9ish 9-1 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan beats OSU in finale where Michigan finishes ranked #7is and OSU finishes #17ish

4. Penn State W, Michigan beats unranked Penn State during our bye week, We beat #13-#15ish 6-0 Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin beats OSU, we beat #5-7ish 7-0 Wisconsin, Michigan State loses to Wisconsin and Michigan before facing us. We beat a receiving votes 6-2 Michigan St, We beat #7-9ish 9-1 Ohio State, Top 10 and 1 loss Michigan loses to OSU in finale where Michigan finishes ranked #13ish and OSU finishes #11ish
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None of the above, because Michigan plays Michigan St during our bye week.
 
briankaldenberg said:
I'm pretty sure no one has said they would choose OSU over Iowa.
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Some goon on KXNO did this morning, I don't agree because if Iowa is 9-1 they will be ranked in the top 10 and beating a 10-0 #1 or #2 OSU team would move them ahead of OSU in the rankings, he wasn't factoring in Iowa moving up in the rankings while running the table the rest of the way, or at least he couldn't have been, because when was the last time a 9-1 team wasn't ranked in the top 10?

Edit: I guess a 9-1 team could be outside the top 10 if they are #10 at 9-0 then lose. But that isn't the case here as Iowa already has their 1 loss.
 
i will let the college football savants and the number crunchers debate the bcs title game, its a pipe dream as far as I am concern. Big ten title and a bcs game is all I care about at this point.
 
DrKnipe said:
No scenario. Rose Bowl is the ceiling.
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Never say never. I think this is a year when most teams will lose at least 1 game save TCU/BSU. If Iowa keeps winning, they could get back into the top 5 by the time they play OSU, who could be #1. If Iowa wins that game, with their record and SOC, it would be possible for them to get in.

Although I am of the camp that BSU and TCU should not be in the NC game because their SOC is terrible. If one gets in, it could obviously really hurt a one loss team like Iowa.
 
Herkeynerd said:
Anyway, don't worry about it. Let's focus on supporting the team this week, and then next week. You get the idea. If it happens to pan out by the end of the year, then great! But let's quit analyzing it. Let's revisit this in December or around ThxGvg time.
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This one of the dumber posts I've read, assuming Herkeynerd is neither a coach nor a player (probably a safe assumption). What function do message boards serve if they're not a forum for fans to exchange bits of information, share their hopes for upcoming games, and ponder perhaps unlikely but certainly exciting possibilities? You're certainly allowed to guard your own expectations for the season, and it appears you are right on board with the Captain in doing so; but to attempt to stifle an interesting discussion about NC scenarios is stupid.

For the record, I agree with Hawkize1 that Alabama would have to win out. We've all heard how the SEC conference schedule is like "running a gauntlet," and our OOC loss to Arizona could never, in the minds of pollsters, hold up to an SEC conference loss.
 
grandmahawk said:
This one of the dumber posts I've read, assuming Herkeynerd is neither a coach nor a player (probably a safe assumption). What function do message boards serve if they're not a forum for fans to exchange bits of information, share their hopes for upcoming games, and ponder perhaps unlikely but certainly exciting possibilities? You're certainly allowed to guard your own expectations for the season, and it appears you are right on board with the Captain in doing so; but to attempt to stifle an interesting discussion about NC scenarios is stupid.

For the record, I agree with Hawkize1 that Alabama would have to win out. We've all heard how the SEC conference schedule is like "running a gauntlet," and our OOC loss to Arizona could never, in the minds of pollsters, hold up to an SEC conference loss.
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Is it a bit, self righteous? Yeah, maybe. The whole 'one game at a time' mantra should be left to players/coaches. absolutely. You are right what makes message boards fun, is speculation. However, my mindset is thinking along the same lines as hawkeyenerd.
 
Here is the best case scenario for the Hawkeyes:
Iowa goes undefeated in conference play.
Illinois and Purdue win as few conference games as possible. (Honestly, how awesome would it be if Minnesota pulled a miracle and won these two games in conference play?)
Iowa State does fairly well (6-6 or so) this season.
USC goes undefeated.
Texas beats OU, loses to Nebraska, and wins the rest of their games, including the Big 12 title game.
Utah goes undefeated.
Someone knocks off Boise State.

This puts Iowa ahead of all eligible Pac-10 teams (a team won't play for the title unless they win the conference). It makes it so the Big 12 champ has two losses. It moves Boise State and TCU out of the equation. It makes Utah/Iowa a toss-up that Iowa wins that battle, I believe, based on difficulty of schedule, which is enhanced by the Hawkeyes playing all the best Big 10 teams.
 
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