What should Hawks do if they win the toss?

[MelroseHawkins]

I've never found any collegiate data, but since 2009, 52.8% of teams that won the toss and deferred won the ballgame.

Give me a 2.8% advantage any day of the week.

Yea but 80-85% of the teams probably deferred to start the game because that is or was the trend in college.

For example, in the NFL it is more common for teams to take the ball after winning the toss. It's always been opposite of college. Taking your logic, it would show that more than 50% of those games were won by the team that took the ball first. This merely because more teams took the ball first.

The only way this can be really measured is to have a control group with exactly the same number of teams either deferring or taking the ball. Then, one has to also have as a control the exact same weather conditions as that can change the decision. There can be a 2.8% error rate just based on inclement weather conditions (primary either wind, rain or snow). This means maybe actually 2% of the teams may have chosen the other, if not for the conditions they were facing that game.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Lol, “Here cone Iowa for their first offensive possession of the game. They are breaking from the huddle……………………. what the?……………….Iowa is in victory formation on first down on their first offensive possession………………………. Well three straight victory formation and here comes Taylor to punt the ball………………………. my goodness a seventy yard punt downed at the opponents two yard line!!!”

“ESPN is reporting Iowa wins game against Purdue 20-0 with victory formation leading to two safeties and two pick sixes. Purdue Coaches angry and claims Iowa was faking offense from opening kickoff!!!” Claims “That ain’t football!”

Nicely played sir!

 

[Grady]

I'd take the ball unless there is a head/tail wind. If there is a head/tail wind, you absolutely must make sure you have a tail wind in 2nd and 4th Q IMO.

Take the ball and go for an opening drive score. Having a lead - even if only 3 pts - is huge for our defensive system. That will induce the opposing OC into the temptation of being a bit more aggressive. That 3-0 can snowball into 30-0 alarmingly fast.

Also, Tory Taylor exists, so if we can get the ball anywhere near the 50 on that opening drive, our chances of pinning the bad guys inside their own 10 are hilariously good.

Iowa took the wind for the 4th quarter vs Penn St., and has done that for several home games this year -- not sure how they handle it on the road.

 

[Grady]

Play D, give Parker a chance to see what Purdue is doing as soon as possible so he can prescribe the medicine that is HAWKEYE DEFENSE, please take responsible and don't drink or drive heavy machinery.

I would suggest just the opposite choice, for the same reason. By giving the opponent the ball first, you give their offense an extra possession in the 1st half, rather than giving them an extra possession in the 2ndhalf, after halftime when Parker has time to make his almost-always effective 2nd-half adjustments.

 

[Grady]

I don't know whether the Hawks will get their first offensive possession after a kickoff or punt, but whenever Iowa's offense gets the ball, I know exactly what I want them to do their first play of the game: QB sneak. I guarantee at least a 5-yd gain -- which is KF's dream. Know what I'd do on 2nd down and 5? Run another QB sneak, setting up a 3rd and short -- or maybe a 1st and 10. (Not to mention making all the college football highlight shows!) I don't care what they do after that, but I can't think of any better way to take Purdue's highly touted DEnd out of the game early, and we're certainly averaging more yds/QB sneak than we are zone runs.

 

[kicker22]

Tough question. After thinking about it I'm almost thinking take the ball. The defense in the second half has generally been lights out and the special teams is always a factor for us. My thought would be take the ball first so that you've got a defense that's had 30 minutes to figure out the opposition, coming out hungry with a special teams that's most likely going to pin them deep. Start the half playing the field position game and let the defense do it's think and ride the momentum the entire second half.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I don't know whether the Hawks will get their first offensive possession after a kickoff or punt, but whenever Iowa's offense gets the ball, I know exactly what I want them to do their first play of the game: QB sneak. I guarantee at least a 5-yd gain -- which is KF's dream. Know what I'd do on 2nd down and 5? Run another QB sneak, setting up a 3rd and short -- or maybe a 1st and 10. (Not to mention making all the college football highlight shows!) I don't care what they do after that, but I can't think of any better way to take Purdue's highly touted DEnd out of the game early, and we're certainly averaging more yds/QB sneak than we are zone runs.

That's funny crap. I thought the same in the last game. What if they just QB sneaked it all the way down the field? It was hilarious when they did it last year on the goal line. Can't remember who that was against.
1st and 10 - 5 yrd gain
2nd and 10 - 4 yrd gain
3rd and short - play action pass to receiver

 

[hawk52]

With our punter take the ball hopefully get a couple 1st downs at least and pin them back