Vegas lines don't mean s*** anyway. They are completely based on getting the money split evenly between the two teams. Vegas does not choose it's favorites based on who they think will win, at least not when the line swings like it did just before the Arizona game. Their initial line is the only one that can be even remotely construed as who they think will win the game.
Now if you believe that the initial line is Vegas' pick for who will win the game, then Iowa WAS favored to win every game, and it DOES matter why the line changed. Sure, they weren't technically favored for Arizona. But if the line only changed to influence the money being bet, then Vegas still thought the Hawks would win.
That said, I'll take the opinion of the pundits over Vegas, simply because Vegas doesn't care who wins, they just want the money split evenly.