What Happens next year?

imported_NIUHawkeye said:
So you feel good about losing a three year starter at QB and replacing him with a QB with very little experience that, when he has played, has thrown more INT's than TD's?
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Derby will be better than Tebow and O'Keefe will design 10-15 plays a game for him, one third of which will be guaranteed TDs. That's 3-5 TDs a game that we don't have this year. I know Hawk fans aren't good at math, but here's the OK4P unified theory of quarterbacking:

JVB+AJDERBY > Ricky Stanzi
 
Here's how I see it:

September
3 Tennessee Tech Win - Who?
10 at Iowa State Win - New QB and loss of other good talent.
17 Pittsburgh Win - Haven't looked like much this year.
24 Louisiana-Monroe Win

October
1 Bye
8 at Penn State Questionable - They won't be coming off playing pancakes before they play Iowa. They will be more prepared then previously plus they will have more experienced QB's next season.
15 Northwestern Loss - Comes after Penn State which is always a physical game and Persa will be back next year...
22 Indiana Win - Chappel (sp) is gone and they will probably still be horrible on D.
29 at Minnesota Win - They will probably have a new coach (not sure if that's a good thing or bad thing, Brewster wasn't exactly great) and a new QB and they will still just flat out suck... nuff said.

November
5 Michigan Loss - I believe they will be better next year on Defense and their Offense will still be explosive. Will be a battle but I predict a loss as of now.
12 Michigan State Win - They'll be good again on offense but their defense should be nothing to be scared of. They lose Jones, Rucker, and Hyde who IMO will all be playing at the next level.
19 at Purdue Questionable - I do not like watching Iowa play at Purdue. They should be pretty good on Offense but their Defense shouldn't be scary at all. It's a good thing Kerrigan is leaving. by the time Iowa plays them.
26 at Nebraska Loss - Just not real confident in this one. They will be returning more key starters then Iowa next year. Only way I see Iowa winning is if Nebraska builds up a lot of injuries to key guys throughout the season, which could very well happen because they have a tough schedule and the Big10 is more physical then the Big12.

So right now I'm going with anywhere from 7-5 to 9-3.
 
My pick? Iowa to win all cept at Nebraska and at PSU. 10-2(6-2)...which will win the Big Ten West....meet OSU in the title game...and lose.
 
"Anyone who wants to argue that losing Stanzi and replacing him with Vandenberg won't be a HUGE downgrade to start off can just look at Vandenberg's career stats:"

There wasn't much first team work there for JV before he got on the field. you bring up stats, good idea. Check out what Stanzi did in 09 regarding passing efficiency and interceptions. He was about the worst QB in the country for interceptions per attempt. Again for this year, Stanzi didn't win us any additional games over what JV would have won. I'll repeat that, this year, Stanzi didn't win us any additional games over what JV would have won. No, there will NOT be a huge drop off.
 
Didn't you just help make my point? When Stanzi was young and inexperienced the team that he led lost four games, including three of his first six starts. It's crazy to expect Vandenberg to come in, play as well as Stanzi is CURRENTLY playing as a senior, and not skip a beat. Vandenberg will be young and inexperienced and the growing pains that come with his learning curve will cost the Hawks a game or two. That's just the way it is when breaking in a new QB.
 
No, I think with the first team reps JV will be fine, and there will not be a huge drop off. Your point was there will be a huge drop off, your evidence was stats produced with no or less than 2 wks practice. Now with the additional time, JV will be nearly as effective as Stanzi. Either way, we'll find out next year, and you can root for me to right.
 
Oh, I'll be rooting for you to be right. We have a very good QB in Stanzi. I think most would agree to that. We pretty much have an unknown in Vandenberg. Given the choice of very good and unknown, I'll typically take very good. But who knows, you may be right and Vandenberg may end up being great. We just don't know and that's scary when trying to make predictions on future seasons.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Iowa's defense knows that Persa's Achilles is soft, he will be allowed to throw a great TD early and will injure himself again during the celebration, thereby paving the way to a 9-7 Iowa victory. Pencil it in right now.
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You still here? I thought you were off to Evanston to start your Man-love stalk of Fitz. And predicting a Hawkeye victory over your Beloved 'Cats? You need a shrink, the multiple personality thing is getting out of hand.

Go away now, turncoat.
 
imported_NIUHawkeye said:
So you feel good about losing a three year starter at QB and replacing him with a QB with very little experience that, when he has played, has thrown more INT's than TD's? I agree that the OL, RB, and WR positions will be a strength, but it's a huge unknown at QB. Plus, the defense that everyone (including me) is complaining about this year is going to be much, much weaker with a ton of guys on this year's team needing replaced. If the Hawks win 10 games like you're predicting I'll be absolutely shocked....and thrilled.

Anyone who wants to argue that losing Stanzi and replacing him with Vandenberg won't be a HUGE downgrade to start off can just look at Vandenberg's career stats:

47/95, which is a completion percentage of 49.47%
3 TD's
5 INT's

He was terrible in two of the three games that he's ever received the bulk of the playing time at QB (Northwestern and Minnesota last season) and okay in the Ohio State game. There's a certain legend about him since he almost beat Ohio State last year at Ohio State. But almost doesn't count as a win. He has a record of 1-2 in those games as well. Don't get me wrong, Vandenberg has all the tools, probably better tools than Stanzi, but that doesn't mean there won't be growing pains.

Hawk fans need to lower their expectations for next season. No offense to Jon, but people bought into his 12-0 hype for this season, and he's already starting the Hawks will win nine games next season talk. People need to look at that schedule and think realistically about whether or not they see nine wins on that schedule given all that has to be replaced. I don't see it. I'll stick with my prediction of seven wins.
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It would be great if we had Rick for another year, but not going to happen so why cry about it. Vandenburg will make some mistakes but he has had two solid years on the bench with a couple of games experiance.
There is a lot of upside to what we have seen with Vandenburg. Against NW he went in cold and had almost no experiance, no time with the first team. And Iowa ended up with a 7 point loss. Against tOSU a overtime loss. I don't think Vandy is an upgrade over Stanzi by any standard, but the world isn't going to end either because Rick graduated.

Additionally, I don't think next year is going to be a .500 year but I certainly wouldn't expect a 10 win season either.
Iowa could be 4-0 going into Penn State and end up at the end of October being 7-1. But I think Iowa State, PSU, NW could all be problems. In November, MSU, Ne are doubtful. Michigan possible win, Purdue probable win. Ne isn't a powerhouse, but Iowa plays them in Lincoln. Iowa and Ne could have similar records by the time they play. 2-3 losses in the Big Ten.
 
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I know many of us were excited about this year's favorable schedule...all of the contenders in Kinnick. Next year's schedule is more favorable IMO.

Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana and Northwestern all come to Iowa City. Our road games are Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska. I think most of us agree that Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska are the teams to beat in our division...we may not beat Northwestern but other teams will.

We get Michigan and Michigan State at home. Nebraska plays Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State from the other division. Michigan goes to Illinois and plays Ohio State. Michigan State goes to Ohio State and hosts Wisconsin.

If we take care of the home field we will have the tiebreaker on everyone but Nebraska and their schedule is a killer. Nebraska could be very good and will most likely lose 3 or more. I think 6-2 with the tiebreakers gets us to the championship game. Then we just have to win 1 game on a neutral field and we're in the Rose Bowl.
 
I'm thinking 10-2 and 6-2 and represent our division in the first championship game for the Rose Bowl. I think it will be pretty cool to be in that first game...especially if Ohio State runs the table.
 
JVB is going to have to learn to put some touch on some passes...going from catching a Stanzi ball to a JVB ball is a night and day difference. Vandy has a great fastball; if he can develop the changeup to go with it he's going to be tough. He just needs to get reps.
 
There are some young guys (Morris, CJ, Coker, Meyer ect...) who are going to be exciting to see in their progress from this year to next. One thing is for sure, there may be a need for better student leadership on next year's team than this years. That's what I'm hopeful for... let's hope they can start to define that in the next couple months.
 
JVB is going to be fine, he is going to have 9 months of knowing that it is his job to lose and will be able to prepare.

I see 8-4 next year, but 9-3 could easily happen. I do see 5-3 in conference as best case scenario right now, that won't be enough to get us to Indianapolis unfortunately.
 
I like where this program is in moist cases... I'm hoping that when the staff does their postmortem, they will discover some weakness' pertaining to clock management and conditioning, and have the wisdom to bring in consultants that can help them.

Iowa always seems to follow a disappointing season with an over achiever. That being said, I think anything from 8-4 to 11-1 with a berth in Indianapolis is a reasonable prediction.

Let's just hope the Athletic Dept. doesn't put the "Wamma Jamma" on the season with the big talk like they did this year. It's better when Iowa "sneaks up" on folks.
 
BSpringsteen said:
JVB is going to be fine, he is going to have 9 months of knowing that it is his job to lose and will be able to prepare.

I see 8-4 next year, but 9-3 could easily happen. I do see 5-3 in conference as best case scenario right now, that won't be enough to get us to Indianapolis unfortunately.
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I agree with 8-4....could be 7-5 or 9-3, depending on injuries and good/bad luck.
 
Moving forward, I think things will be different next season. New leadership and players stepping in who want to prove themselves. I think the attitude completely changes and Iowa gets back on track.
 
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