What Happens next year?

H

HawkeyeNTexas

Well-Known Member
I was watching the Penn State preview tonight and started thinking about this Iowa team. PSU lost a number of key starters on both offense and defense and yet they come into this season ranked in the top 20. I began to think about Iowa and what could happen next year. Immediately I thought about Iowa's record under KF. Obviously, Iowa loses key starters on both offense and defense to graduation next year, just like Penn State did this year.

If you take a look at the history of this Iowa program under KF, you can break down the records in groups of 3.
99: 1-10
00: 3-9
01: 7-5

02: 11-2
03: 10-3
04: 10-2

05: 7-5
06: 6-7
07: 6-6

08: 9-4
09: 11-2
10: ?

Unfortunately, if this trend continues on the "predicted" path, next year will be a down year. BUT.......as I sit here and think about the players on this team, I begin to believe that next year will be more of a "reloading" year.

If you take a look at the offense. I think you will have little drop off with Vandenberg at the helm. You have Davis and Mcnutt coming back at WR's and the whole RB group back. You also have a young offensive line coming back, and CJ at TE. This group is going to be good.

On Defense you basically have the whole core of DB's back except for Greenwood.... and LB's, except for Hunter and Tarp with a great young group of guys. The d line will be hit hard but Binns and Daniels should be back. Defense could be a question mark, but as long as the young guys step up, I think they will be fine.

What do you guys think?
 
I think possibly the big key to making 2011 more of a reloading year is going to be the offensive line.

Vandervelde and Koeppel are the only seniors, correct? And Ferentz has been neck and neck with Koeppel, so I don't think we'll see much of a dropoff there. Plus we have Donnal, and this year's OL class is shaping up into something special.

The running game will still be good, thanks to the OL strength and the pressence of Hampton, A-Rob, and presumably Wegher, but if not, we still have a stable of very good RB's.

McNutt will hopefully not have such a great year in 2010 that he leaves early (let DJK have some fun, too). So we'll assume we have him back. Plus Davis, and hopefully by then Cotton will have completed the transformation from lanky HS running back to Big Ten WR. Then you have C-Fed and Hamilton at TE.

And Vandenberg, Weinke, and Derby/or Ruddock will be at QB.

The offense should be set up nicely in 2011, if we can get Vandenberg a fair amount of game experience this year.

The D-Line will take a step back (that's inevitable). But Daniels, Alvis, Binns, and Daniel all have quite a bit of talent. Depth could be a concern.

LB's I'm not sure about. Remember, we won't have Troy Johnson, either, in addition to the graduations of Tarp and Hunter. But Morris may be able to step in with Davis and Nielson. Again, depth could be an issue there.

The secondary will be just fine, particularly if Bernstine makes the switch to safety. Prater and Hyde could be the best CB tandem in the country by 2011, and Sash is, well, TMFS.

All in all, the defense could end up being a lot like the 2005 defense, when there were holes up front that led to problems early in the year. But the experienced secondary should hopefully provide some coverage sacks and the like. And the guys filling the holes up front won't be freshmen and sophomores, like they were in 2005, which should be a plus.

Special teams ought to keep marching to the beat with Mullings handling punting and kickoffs, and probably Mossbrucker the FG duties.

Honestly, if there were ever a year for the Hawks to break the "3 on, 3 off" trend under Ferentz, it's going to be 2011.
 
HawkeyeNTexas said:
I was watching the Penn State preview tonight and started thinking about this Iowa team. PSU lost a number of key starters on both offense and defense and yet they come into this season ranked in the top 20. I began to think about Iowa and what could happen next year. Immediately I thought about Iowa's record under KF. Obviously, Iowa loses key starters on both offense and defense to graduation next year, just like Penn State did this year.

If you take a look at the history of this Iowa program under KF, you can break down the records in groups of 3.
99: 1-10
00: 3-9
01: 7-5

02: 11-2
03: 10-3
04: 10-2

05: 7-5
06: 6-7
07: 6-6

08: 9-4
09: 11-2
10: ?

Unfortunately, if this trend continues on the "predicted" path, next year will be a down year. BUT.......as I sit here and think about the players on this team, I begin to believe that next year will be more of a "reloading" year.

If you take a look at the offense. I think you will have little drop off with Vandenberg at the helm. You have Davis and Mcnutt coming back at WR's and the whole RB group back. You also have a young offensive line coming back, and CJ at TE. This group is going to be good.

On Defense you basically have the whole core of DB's back except for Greenwood.... and LB's, except for Hunter and Tarp with a great young group of guys. The d line will be hit hard but Binns and Daniels should be back. Defense could be a question mark, but as long as the young guys step up, I think they will be fine.

What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

I really dont understand how there is a pattern here. KF had a 1 time slope with a team that had a lot of bad leadership and a lot of bad decisions. If the players are still going to work as hard in the next years as they have the past 2 years then i see no issues with us in the future.
 
Can we at least enjoy this season before we start doing this? That's what we have the ENTIRE next summer for.
 
HawkfaninWA said:
Can we at least enjoy this season before we start doing this? That's what we have the ENTIRE next summer for.
Click to expand...

Nah. It's never too early to think about the future. :) I agree this topic is a bit premature, but I had some thoughts last night and wanted to share them.
 
Lord i just want to get through this season with out another heat attack LOL
although regardless me personally i always have high expectations each season as we have a sold and stable program, and should be to the point now where we reload-- i mean, that is what the top tier programs do right? and that's what we aspire for the the hawks yeah?

BTW-- Muellings-- he's the Australian stud correct? i was wondering about him--- anyone think he can maybe get some time this year--- with our fild goal kickers being mediocore at best.....???
 
Offense will be fine, Vandy is a stud and already has some seasoning in the shoe. We bring back all our RBs(well, maybe) Most of our line, which after a year together and more off season conditioning will be one of the country's best for sure, including we will get Donnal into the mix and a few other big time guys.

We will have CJ with another year and the WRs are looking nice with Davis getting his chance to be the top WR.

Offense will be as good as this year IMO, we have a ton of talent.

Defense looks like trouble on paper but the D-Line backups are studs, nobody can replace Clayborn but when was the last time Iowa had a bad defense? Exactly, and it wont start next year.
 
I do not mind a little speculation on next year...still a couple of weeks til kickoff for this season.
Next year will be a huge one for the Big Ten..
Nebraska's first year...they will also lose quite a few good players.
The new divisional setup will be in play...hopefully,Iowa,Neb,Wis,NW,Ill,and Minny in the West. With that setup,Iowas schedule will be easy to figure...
Neb,Wis,NW,Ill,Minny,Purdue(after two year hiatus,the Boilers return),then probably Michigan and OSU....so, that is a schedule Iowa could challenge for the Western Division and to appear in the first ever Big Ten Title game...would love that.
Wisky will lose quite a bit also...clay will go pro and Tolzien will graduate.
Minny will stink.
Ill will stink.
NW? Persa will be back but he is a shrimp.

Iowa vs OSU in the initial Big Ten Title Game? Cool.

I like our offense for 2011.
Defense will come down to replacing Klug,Adrian and Clayborn...I like the Daniels,Binns...after that -crapshoot.

I do not see a horrible dropoff in 2011, and the Hawks will be in contention for that first West title.
 
I'll worry about next year after this season, but the reality is I would be thinking bowl game in Texas next year (Texas or Dallas Football Classic). Iowa will likely be pegged us a middle tier Big Ten team next year. We lose a lot.
 
Texas Bowl Really? wow even in a down year, that means we finish basically 6-6, even at 7-5 we go insight--- the 2 texas bowls are the two lowest right? i guess 2nd from lowest considering the little ceasers bowl(that's b10 yeah?) Little ceasers bowl.... sorry but i'd almost not go bowling...i know i know still a bowl, but it's not, too many bowl games now days, sorry to ramble off topic!

nonetheless--- i think our offense could be good next year and we're to a point where we reload on defense, even at places like Oline which we'll certainly be seeing this year if we do or don't--- (ofcourse subject to how this year goes) but i don't think a 8-4 is out of line or even 9-3 for 2011.....
 
7-5, lose to Iowa St., go to the texas bowl type of year. Losing to ISU won't be a big deal will probably pick off one of the Big Ten Fav(s) in a upset late in the year.
 
10-2, the offense puts up the most points since 2002, and while the defense won't be as good we win a few 35-31 games and finish second in the B10.
 
Let's worry about 2011 in 2011...This season is too much fun already without being brought down by what we lose after this year is complete
 
Also, as fans, it is perfectly acceptable for us to speculate about the future. Why do fans think they need to focus on only the next game or the next season? It's not like that will have any impact on the outcome. That's what the players need to be focused on.
 
Mac50702 said:
I really dont understand how there is a pattern here. KF had a 1 time slope with a team that had a lot of bad leadership and a lot of bad decisions. If the players are still going to work as hard in the next years as they have the past 2 years then i see no issues with us in the future.
Click to expand...

You may not agree that the pattern needs to continue, but there definitely is a pattern. In years 1-3 and 7-9, Iowa averaged less than 6.5 wins/season. In years 4-6 and 10-12, Iowa will likely average 10+ wins/season. In other words, Iowa has flip flopped between below average and excellent 3 year periods for the past 12 years.
 
first 3 he was building from the ground up so that's thrown out

so he's had ONE downslope. its really not a "trend" at all
 
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