Week 4 Betting Action

hawkfaninTX

hawkfaninTX

Well-Known Member
This week I will post my game sheet that I start with, from these opening lines (Sunday Night), I then narrow it down to 20 games, or my "leans." From which they go through another filter with the release of the final Injury report and the initial Moneylines on late Thursday/early Friday (Tues/Wed for weeknight games, obviously). One last addition to this weekly thread will be for Saturday's Final Picks I will also release 3-5 "big bets" indicating games I am most likely to play.

If you do bet recreationally, where i get my original info is from:
CFB - Team Stats | TheSpread.com or
Sports Betting Odds, Picks and Statistics ? Covers.com or

This site gives historical data ATS (against the spread):
College Football Betting, Handicapping Stats, Live NCAA Football Odds

Enjoy, and no later than Wednesday will my picks be out.

Week 2 Thread= 11-8-1 (57%) or $220 profit on my 20 leans. **
Week 3 Thread= 13-10 (57%) or $200 profit on my 23 leans.

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/32847-week-2-betting-action.html
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/33326-week-3-betting-action.html

____________________________________________________________

At first glance I already have some early favorites, these initial picks are made without much research, I may flip some of these picks when I roll out my picks on Wednesday:

Florida St (-3) at Clemson
UCF at BYU (-3)
Ohio (+4) at Rutgers.
Temple (+9) at Maryland.
Army (-3) at Ball State.
So Miss at Virginia (-3)
Western Mich (+12) at Illinois.
LSU (-5) at West Virginia
Oklahoma St at TA&M (-3) *I predicted in the suicide pool a 3-7 point fav, will be on this for sure!
Colorado St at Utah St (-6.5)
Oregon (-14) at Arizona
USC (+3) at Arizona State


I sure hope this thread becomes a haven for great discussion of college football betting. We are all out to beat the bookies, so there is no use arguing with each other, instead ask why they feel so strongly for another team and you may save some $ in the long run.

Best of Luck to my Fellow Handicappers!
______________________________________
** I went back to double-check my work on Week 1. I changed it to the correct profit ammount, apologies.
 
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Thursday, September 22
(TIME) Opening Line--New Line Home / Away Next Opponents(Home) & (Away)
8:00 PM ET +7 NC State at Cincinnati

Friday, September 23
(TIME) Opening Line--New Line Home / Away Next Opponents(Home) & (Away)
8:00 PM ET +3 UCF at BYU

Saturday, September 24
(TIME) Opening Line--New Line Home / Away Next Opponents(Home) & (Away)
12:00 PM ET +13 Kansas State at Miami (FL)
12:00 PM ET +23.5 Central Michigan at Michigan State
12:00 PM ET +8 San Diego State at Michigan
12:00 PM ET +3 Toledo at Syracuse
12:00 PM ET +28.5 Eastern Michigan at Penn State
12:00 PM ET -6.5 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
12:00 PM ET -22.5 SMU at Memphis
12:00 PM ET +18 LA-Monroe at Iowa
12:21 PM ET -10 Georgia at Ole Miss
12:30 PM ET +9 Temple at Maryland
1:00 PM ET +6 Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
2:00 PM ET +4.5 Ohio at Rutgers
2:00 PM ET -3 Army at Ball State
3:30 PM ET -3 Florida State at Clemson
3:30 PM ET +13 Arkansas at Alabama
3:30 PM ET -18.5 Virginia Tech at Marshall
3:30 PM ET +14.5 Colorado at Ohio State
3:30 PM ET +11 Tulane at Duke
3:30 PM ET off UAB at East Carolina
3:30 PM ET +3 UCLA at Oregon State
3:30 PM ET +3 Southern Miss at Virginia
3:30 PM ET +3 California at Washington
3:30 PM ET +12 Western Michigan at Illinois
3:30 PM ET -5 LSU at West Virginia
3:30 PM ET +5.5 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
4:00 PM ET off New Mexico State at San Jose State
4:30 PM ET +12.5 Middle Tennessee at Troy
5:00 PM ET -6 Fresno State at Idaho
6:00 PM ET -9.5 Connecticut at Buffalo
6:00 PM ET -16.5 LA-Lafayette at FIU
7:00 PM ET +3 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
7:00 PM ET +15 Vanderbilt at South Carolina
7:00 PM ET -17.5 Florida at Kentucky
7:00 PM ET +18 Rice at Baylor
7:00 PM ET +27.5 UTEP at South Florida
7:00 PM ET +32 Florida Atlantic at Auburn
7:00 PM ET +18 LA Tech at Mississippi State
7:00 PM ET -7.5 Indiana at North Texas
7:00 PM ET +20.5 Nevada at Texas Tech
7:30 PM ET -22.5 Nebraska at Wyoming
8:00 PM ET +20.5 Missouri at Oklahoma
8:00 PM ET off Tulsa at Boise State
8:00 PM ET +6.5 Colorado State at Utah State
10:15 PM ET -14 Oregon at Arizona
10:15 PM ET +3 USC at Arizona State
 
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Does anyone think Nebraska can cover a 22.5 spread on the road against Wyoming? They could not even cover a 16.5 spread at home against Washington. That Nebraska defense is giving up a ton of points right now.
 
Love Cincy Bearcats in early action midweek. Bearcats QB will have big night against NC State Defense
 
hawklock00 said:
Thats what all the public is thinking..... Makes me like Pitt even more!
Click to expand...

Pitt D has been torched on consectutive weekends by Maine and Iowa ; and it will be more of the same when ND comes to town. Notre Dame is clearly the better team here and I think they score a ton in this matchup. Take into account ND is alot better than their 1-2 matchup . Regardless ; one of us will be cashing a winning ticket in this one . Good Luck !
 
I'm still debating on the ND vs Pitt game. anything could happen. ND could win by a lot of points, i just hate that they have so many turnovers- makes it difficult to handicap
 
ssckelley said:
Does anyone think Nebraska can cover a 22.5 spread on the road against Wyoming? They could not even cover a 16.5 spread at home against Washington. That Nebraska defense is giving up a ton of points right now.
Click to expand...

Wyoming surprised me last week with a straight up win (9 pt dogs) AT Bowling Green. Look for this line to shrink to the hard number of 21. I think they (Nebraska) win by 14-17 pts. might put a small wager on it. :)
 
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hawkfaninTX said:
This week I will post my game sheet that I start with, from these opening lines (Sunday Night), I then narrow it down to 20 games, or my "leans." From which they go through another filter with the release of the final Injury report and the initial Moneylines on late Thursday/early Friday (Tues/Wed for weeknight games, obviously). One last addition to this weekly thread will be for Saturday's Final Picks I will also release 3-5 "big bets" indicating games I am most likely to play.

If you do bet recreationally, where i get my original info is from:
CFB - Team Stats | TheSpread.com or
Sports Betting Odds, Picks and Statistics ? Covers.com or

This site gives historical data ATS (against the spread):
College Football Betting, Handicapping Stats, Live NCAA Football Odds

Enjoy, and no later than Wednesday will my picks be out.

Week 2 Thread= 11-8-1 (57%) or $220 profit on my 20 leans. **
Week 3 Thread= 13-10 (57%) or $200 profit on my 23 leans.

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/32847-week-2-betting-action.html
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/33326-week-3-betting-action.html

____________________________________________________________

At first glance I already have some early favorites, these initial picks are made without much research, I may flip some of these picks when I roll out my picks on Wednesday:

Florida St (-3) at Clemson
UCF at BYU (-3)
Ohio (+4) at Rutgers.
Temple (+9) at Maryland.
Army (-3) at Ball State.
So Miss at Virginia (-3)
Western Mich (+12) at Illinois.
LSU (-5) at West Virginia
Oklahoma St at TA&M (-3) *I predicted in the suicide pool a 3-7 point fav, will be on this for sure!
Colorado St at Utah St (-6.5)
Oregon (-14) at Arizona
USC (+3) at Arizona State


I sure hope this thread becomes a haven for great discussion of college football betting. We are all out to beat the bookies, so there is no use arguing with each other, instead ask why they feel so strongly for another team and you may save some $ in the long run.

Best of Luck to my Fellow Handicappers!
______________________________________
** I went back to double-check my work on Week 1. I changed it to the correct profit ammount, apologies.
Click to expand...

I am certainly loving the Army, LSU picks. Wow, should get in on that action quick before the line moves. Those are both great picks!
 
I just laid a fun pick tonight on the rams. I laid a 7.5 teaser on the rams and the total to go under.

So, Rams +14.5 and Under 51.5!

Just a fun Monday night play!! Both teams are riddled with injuries. But the Giants trends are against them. Hope I come out a winner, Go Rams!!
 
Early Line Movements

Cincinatti up to -7.5
Illinois up to -13.5
Georgia up to -11
Alabama down to -12.5
Iowa down to -17
Indiana up to -8

Does everyone pretty much know how much it takes to move a line, or why the bookie refuses to move a line and instead increases the juice?

Most of the time they will ask a pretty penny to buy the Hook off of a hard/key number.
--> for example, Tonight my book has St. Louis +7 at -110 but will ask -130 to -140 for the hook. (the hook is a half point off of a hard number or key number like 3, 7, 10, 14, & so on).

Thats my betting education post for the day. Hopefully this thread spawns more discussion and strategies, if you have some- please share. remember the bookies are the enemies!
 
one trend i like to use in pro football wagering is to bet on a home team that is favored by 7 to 10 points . yesterday that applied to detroit and new england ; both winners and tonight it applies to the Giants . Like anything else it doesn't always win ; but it does quite a bit !
 
hawkfaninTX said:
I just laid a fun pick tonight on the rams. I laid a 7.5 teaser on the rams and the total to go under.

So, Rams +14.5 and Under 51.5!

Just a fun Monday night play!! Both teams are riddled with injuries. But the Giants trends are against them. Hope I come out a winner, Go Rams!!
Click to expand...

I need 7 points from Josh Brown to win my fantasy game and complete my epic comeback (had Maclin and McCoy last night against White, down 65 before that game) so I am hoping for your low scoring, FG affair...
 
berniend said:
one trend i like to use in pro football wagering is to bet on a home team that is favored by 7 to 10 points . yesterday that applied to detroit and new england ; both winners and tonight it applies to the Giants . Like anything else it doesn't always win ; but it does quite a bit !
Click to expand...

True, but lucky for me my teaser still win's in that scenario, best of luck on your wager, hope we can both ein
 
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