I think this is a pretty good assessment. Only way I see it where anyone (AD or other University bigwig) does anything "major" (and by major, I mean specifically addressing Kirk) is if they lose to WI, IL, MN, NE AND either NW or Rutgers. Maybe, something major happens still if they beat both NW and Rutgers. But, I doubt it.
The thing is though, they don't have to do anything major. I don't have a full understanding of Brain's contract status. I don't pay too much attention to the fine print. If it's truly win 7 and score 25, he returns to his regularly scheduled pay and regularly scheduled contract. To me, that would mean if he doesn't hit those numbers. He's got NO contract. To keep him on, a new one would have to be negotiated.
So, yeah....conceivably any AD or other University brass could potentially hide behind "Oh, Kirk....we love you. We adore you. You're the best. My grandson is named Kirk. I keep pictures of you in my wallet. We want you to stay. Would you like a new set of snow tires? Also, we're thinking about a bronze statue of you outside the north entrance at Kinnick."
And just refuse to offer Brain a new contract. Force his hand and put the ball in his court. It would be ugly. No doubt. But, it gives them a little something to hide behind. No telling what he does then. If Fry's to be believed, it gets ugly and he quits.
Maybe the contract amendment is actually brilliant and Goetz is setup to the the fallgal. Do the dirty work. Start afresh. Maybe if she walks the tightrope somehow and it doesn't get ugly, she earns the gig outright or the panache and punches her ticket to be the pick of the litter for any other school looking for an AD/president or whatever. I've no idea what her ambitions are. I hardly know anything about her.