The usual 'sell high' at a huge volume by big money, which then scares other investors to sell and preserve some gains, and then when the price drops, the big money is the first in to 'buy low'. Which is it? Or a real bear market where stock owners are scared of the economy.
Was that really a bear market drop in stocks or ...?
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MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Yea, we are so fucked economically now it's not even funny. Everything is just out-of-whack. There is no consistency or flow to anything. I feel sorry for the man or woman who were planning to retire in the next couple years. Talking about throwing a wrench in plans.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
We have the highest inflation in like forever (and is higher than reported as it doesn't include actual rent). We have supply chain issues.
We have pumped money into the economy like never before. We handed out money under Trump like confetti at a NYC ticker tape parade.
Retail giants have been struggling.
Public debt has grown like mold in wet bathroom.
Total debt including personal has been expanding and surpassed 08 era like an Indy car passing the pace car.
We kept things alive by lowering interest rates to the point in Europe you were penalized for saving and we were almost there.
Not sure of the timing and there will be bear and dead cat bounces OR stocks could run away which means the Fed has capitulated.
We have 2 choices. Recessiion likely insanely deep or massive inflation. It will likely take 10% interest rates to really curb this thing meaning a deep recession. I think you are old enough to remember the early 80s which were arguably worse than the great recession.
This is like the Challenger saying, "Houston we have a problem" instead of Jim Lovell.
We have pumped money into the economy like never before. We handed out money under Trump like confetti at a NYC ticker tape parade.
Retail giants have been struggling.
Public debt has grown like mold in wet bathroom.
Total debt including personal has been expanding and surpassed 08 era like an Indy car passing the pace car.
We kept things alive by lowering interest rates to the point in Europe you were penalized for saving and we were almost there.
Not sure of the timing and there will be bear and dead cat bounces OR stocks could run away which means the Fed has capitulated.
We have 2 choices. Recessiion likely insanely deep or massive inflation. It will likely take 10% interest rates to really curb this thing meaning a deep recession. I think you are old enough to remember the early 80s which were arguably worse than the great recession.
This is like the Challenger saying, "Houston we have a problem" instead of Jim Lovell.
Covid threw a who lot of bad shit at us and we are having issues getting back to a regular life. Shut in, got stimulus money, but a lot of businesses shut down and supply chain issues have way more money chasing scarce goods, prices and inflation higher, a slow Fed to try to cool off the price hikes, etc etc.
Then we have global crap going on to throw a wrench into a lot of stuff. Energy prices drive everything, shortages there get really magnified. Watch to see if Big Oil and OPec etc can start pumping more crude even though it would nice to get off of oil but that aint happening fast enough
Then we have global crap going on to throw a wrench into a lot of stuff. Energy prices drive everything, shortages there get really magnified. Watch to see if Big Oil and OPec etc can start pumping more crude even though it would nice to get off of oil but that aint happening fast enough
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
I would worry more about those who bought plus 300k houses and gigantic pickup trucks and talking more about the mentality of those who did and did it on credit and 3 percent loans. Many are maxed.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Yea, I sure do remember the 1980's and early 80's as those were my influential and school years growing up. I graduated in 1989 so the 1980's were the most memorable for me growing up.
Ramp up the "Government Free Cheese Program". Remember that in the early 80's!!
Did they also distribute butter? It seems like there was something else.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Yea, everything is just a mess for various reasons. We have the perfect storm going on.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
I forgot about the cheese!
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Interesting is that many experts say the tightening of the money supply led to the depression and here we are with runaway inflation and a struggling economy. Do we tighten or go for it?
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
The monetary supply collapsed in the Great Depression. The Fed's biggest fear is a wave of deflation. If we have a deflationary world at any point, the Fed will immediately reopen quantitative easing and cut interest rates. They do not want the money supply to collapse in an epic fashion. Taking money out of the system after injecting $9 trillion bince March 2009 is the right thing to do.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
That era seemed to have the perfect storm going on as well which is eerily similar to our current situation, although different specific variables. Remember a couple other things contributed to or exacerbated the Great Depression. 1) The Smoot-Hawley Tariff act. Prob not the best time to sign that act. 2) The Dust Bowl in the great plains. Just another social cause that could not be controlled but happened at the wrong time.
It's amazing looking at old photos from the GD and seeing nothing but dirt and dust with no life plants/growth. I just can't imagine it being like that and all over. It was so barren. Similar to that, now we have a water supply issue in our west with Lake Mead, etc..
Could we be heading into a 2nd Great Depression coming off a bull market and all the ingredients for a perfect storm now?
Hopefully the feds have learned from the first one and can now be a bit proactive or take better measures to recover faster or better, such as cutting short the monetary deflation and making sure there is adequate money supply.
It's amazing looking at old photos from the GD and seeing nothing but dirt and dust with no life plants/growth. I just can't imagine it being like that and all over. It was so barren. Similar to that, now we have a water supply issue in our west with Lake Mead, etc..
Could we be heading into a 2nd Great Depression coming off a bull market and all the ingredients for a perfect storm now?
Hopefully the feds have learned from the first one and can now be a bit proactive or take better measures to recover faster or better, such as cutting short the monetary deflation and making sure there is adequate money supply.
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HawkGold
Well-Known Member
In their fear, they may have created Frankinstiens Monster, which in the end may do what they didn't want. Always keep in mind the Fed is influenced. Some will come out winners regardless.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
It's hard to tell. Like wealth was shifted then, the Great Recession shifted wealth. Where we are now makes the Great Recession look smallish compared to what could happen. We have shifted food lines and unemployment lines so they are hidden. B and W photos added to the drama.
What should have happened in 08 were fewer bailouts and let things settle. We kicked the can down the road amazingly well. We are at the point where interest rates can't be lowered. This should have all occurred in the 90s but the internet and computers saved us by massively improving efficiencies.
No one knows the course we will take and what the outcomes will be. I think you can count on narrow special interests being served. Automation is going to improve efficiencies but make masses of people not needed.
Think about what has happened already to our cities. Chicago has as many or more casualties than the Donbas War over the past few years and prior to the current expanded war. Champaign is/was actually a nice place, much nicer than IC in many respects. North Champaign Urbana is now like a war zone. Michigan has the same problems.
If we don't fix this soon, which included corruption, Let the Hunger Games Begin....
I do know that a number of the AZOV fighters in Ukraine actually thought their eventual fight would be in the US. Of course now Putin did destroy them in Mariupol.
Also if you haven't paid attention, the Russians are actually winning the war and we are at a serious pivot point in the coming weeks. Ukraine is losing 200 KIA per day minimum. Most soldiers are past the period where they are effective.
There is so much going on right now that NCAA changes will likely be moot.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
A little over 10 years ago Chicago got a bunch of money from the feds to tear down the projects. They then needed to rehouse all of the occupants. You can correlate the rise in crime in a bunch of mid sized towns around the midwest, including our own Iowa City, directly to this relocation process. My dad has friends in Galesburg who said a quarter of the town is now basically a no-go zone. I've heard similar about parts of Champagne. And pockets of Peoria. And Rockford. And Kenosha.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
We'll that makes sense. The local pd pays pretty well and are understaffed after a couple of officers were shot and one died in a simple questioning at 3 am. It was a nice apartment area, but the boyfried was a gangster. Now they have hired a security firms to patrol downtown Champaign. In Champaign, it's mostly Mattis on the west north of Bradley to I 74 and into Urbana. Urbana on the east side has really declined for safety. Yet the murders spill over to campus when gangsters show up and even in North Prospect which is like Coralville shopping. The main mall is becoming a ghost building and the main companies close early due to shootings in the parking lot. Peoria and Decatur still have some beautiful old neighborhoods, but it is getting worse. Danville is awful, but that is largely due to GM closing. My wife worked at Rantoul schools, a smallish town and it was very dangerous and she walked out during the year. Our nice suburb is getting overrun with people moving out of Champaign. Ironically the police gunfight a few years ago was with a militia guy with ties to the MN group (in our small town). Galesburg I didn't know about until you said that. I looked up the demographics.
Makes sense as it is on the Amtrak line from Chicago. Some of the cities in Chicago on the end of the rail system have issues like Harvard.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
I know Rantoul. One of my buddies growing up moved to the U from Urbana back in the '90's and once we could drive we would do a road trip to Champaign for a couple weeks each summer. I drank many beers at a farm on the edge of Rantoul. It struck me as the last place on earth one would expect the schools to become so dangerous that people quit mid year. Holy shit.
Good points. The housing and car purchases are the two biggest of course for families. In the late '90s to 2002 I worked with someone whose dad laid carpet and tile etc. She said her dad told her that even during those years as the go-go 90's boom went bust her dad would go into big Des Moines are new houses and the people had two nice vehicles but literally no furniture, basic beds, etc. They couldnt afford anything because of being maxed out on those two big purchases.
But most of those people have to have it, they probably had some good jobs, but that credit interest will eat you up.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
I have no nice furniture and our house is barely furnished for a 3000 sq ft house. Nice furniture is a waste of money and my wife and I are minimalists. I paid off my student loans and mortgage in 2012 and haven't had any debt other than revolving credit card debt paid off monthly bince then. Bought my new house with cash, bought cars with cash. My grandma lived through the Depression and farm crisis and she taught us to never borrow more than you can comfortably repay even if everything goes completely sideways and to try to avoid debt at all costs. There is a way to get rich by borrowing money, but it carries substantial risk. I suspect that people have forgotten about risks associated with borrowing money to buy business assets, real estate and stonks, but there could be a reckoning in the very near future. For the average consumer, paying interest for a long time can really impair your ability to accumulate wealth.
