USC=BCS killer

H

HawkeyeNTexas

Well-Known Member
USC could be standing in Iowa's way, and here is why:

Current Rankings:
IOWA USC
BCS: # 4 BCS: # 5
AP: #7 AP: # 4
Coaches: #8 Coaches: # 4

IF USC wins out, their remaining schedule will push USC ahead of Iowa in the computer rankings. They play #10 Oregon and #20 Arizona. Iowa plays #17 OSU. For the season, Iowa would have played and beat 2 ranked apponents: PSU and Ohio State. USC would have played and beat 5 ranked apponents.

The AP has a hard-on for USC and are basically ignoring the loss to 3-5 Washington, which is PATHETIC!!!!! We have to hope USC loses or Washington doesn't win another game. This is the sad truth.

I don't agree with it, but I could see it happening.
 
Arizona and Wisconsin could easily finish ranked, giving Iowa victories over 4 ranked teams, and no losses to sub-.500 bottom dwellers.
 
HawkeyeNTexas said:
USC could be standing in Iowa's way, and here is why:

Current Rankings:
IOWA USC
BCS: # 4 BCS: # 5
AP: #7 AP: # 4
Coaches: #8 Coaches: # 4

IF USC wins out, their remaining schedule will push USC ahead of Iowa in the computer rankings. They play #10 Oregon and #20 Arizona. Iowa plays #17 OSU. For the season, Iowa would have played and beat 2 ranked apponents: PSU and Ohio State. USC would have played and beat 5 ranked apponents.

The AP has a hard-on for USC and are basically ignoring the loss to 3-5 Washington, which is PATHETIC!!!!! We have to hope USC loses or Washington doesn't win another game. This is the sad truth.

I don't agree with it, but I could see it happening.
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There is no way that USC passes us in the computer ratings if we win out, they may get enough additional points in the computer ratings to pass us in the overall rating but I doubt they would break the top 3 on the computers.
 
I don't think Arizona finishes ranked. Their remaining games are against USC, Cal, Oregon, and a rivalry game verses ASU.

If they win two of these games, I will be impressed.
 
No body thought we'd be 8-0 and talking BCS.Let's just play them one at a time like the team has and then we'll see where were at.I still think some of these teams are going to slip up.
 
I cant believe nobody is giving Oregon any love. This team could easily be undefeated right now. They are rolling. I think USC gets exposed again this weekend. Oregon scares me more than USC if they keep winning. I think we can play with anybody. Realistically speaking we are down to our 3rd and 4th string RB in a predominately run oriented system. The odds are stacking, don't get me wrong I'm a believer in this team for all the marbles. I think we need to concentrate on Indiana Saturday. We haven't exactly played well at home once this year. That scares me. Go Hawks!
 
Ran some number on the Colley Matrix, and if these six teams win out(I know Florida or Alabama has to lose) the rankings would look like this.


ALABAMA 1.01029
IOWA 0.99038
FLORIDA 0.98994
TEXAS 0.95881
SOUTHERN CAL 0.94971
CINCY 0.89129

The rankings do not include any other games which will effect the ratings, but USC beating Arizona only drop our rating .00349. So it is doubtful USC would go above #4.
 
If you are including Arizona in the 5 ranked teams USC has beat, you kind of have to include them in Iowa's too, I mean since we beat them and all;)

HawkeyeNTexas said:
USC could be standing in Iowa's way, and here is why:

Current Rankings:
IOWA USC
BCS: # 4 BCS: # 5
AP: #7 AP: # 4
Coaches: #8 Coaches: # 4

IF USC wins out, their remaining schedule will push USC ahead of Iowa in the computer rankings. They play #10 Oregon and #20 Arizona. Iowa plays #17 OSU. For the season, Iowa would have played and beat 2 ranked apponents: PSU and Ohio State. USC would have played and beat 5 ranked apponents.

The AP has a hard-on for USC and are basically ignoring the loss to 3-5 Washington, which is PATHETIC!!!!! We have to hope USC loses or Washington doesn't win another game. This is the sad truth.

I don't agree with it, but I could see it happening.
Click to expand...
 
On ESPN, Jesse Palmer has brought up this very scenario. If Iowa and USC both win out, that USC would pass Iowa in the BCS standings. Personally, I think its sad that a one-loss BCS conference team vs. an undefeated BCS conference team could even be a question. However, we are talking about USC and Iowa. USC would need to continue to get the votes in the coaches and harris polls and have a one or two team cushion on Iowa, because i believe Iowa would still finish 1 or 2 in the computers if we win out. USC even with one loss will likely get the votes, but not on reputation alone. USC will have to win @Oregon and against CAL. If both teams won out, i say Iowa finishes 3rd in human polls (behind Florida/Alabama and USC) and 2nd in Computers behind Florida/Alabama. Which will probably not be enough to get the ticket to the National Championship. The thing that hurts the Hawkeyes, whether they win out or not is that 2/3 of the BCS is still determined by human polls. The computers can only do so much for us.
Of course this is all speculative and if the Hawks win out they have done all they can to make their case. I for one would be thrilled with 11-1 and a rose bowl bid, but as long as they are undefeated we can talk as if they will finish that way. Go Hawks!
 
HawkeyeRy said:
On ESPN, Jesse Palmer has brought up this very scenario. If Iowa and USC both win out, that USC would pass Iowa in the BCS standings. Personally, I think its sad that a one-loss BCS conference team vs. an undefeated BCS conference team could even be a question. However, we are talking about USC and Iowa. USC would need to continue to get the votes in the coaches and harris polls and have a one or two team cushion on Iowa, because i believe Iowa would still finish 1 or 2 in the computers if we win out. USC even with one loss will likely get the votes, but not on reputation alone. USC will have to win @Oregon and against CAL. If both teams won out, i say Iowa finishes 3rd in human polls (behind Florida/Alabama and USC) and 2nd in Computers behind Florida/Alabama. Which will probably not be enough to get the ticket to the National Championship. The thing that hurts the Hawkeyes, whether they win out or not is that 2/3 of the BCS is still determined by human polls. The computers can only do so much for us.
Of course this is all speculative and if the Hawks win out they have done all they can to make their case. I for one would be thrilled with 11-1 and a rose bowl bid, but as long as they are undefeated we can talk as if they will finish that way. Go Hawks!
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Don't be fooled by The Bachelor, his grasp of the BCS is marginal at best
 
If Iowa wins out and puts up good numbers especially at OSU... that'll go a long ways in convincing the critics that Iowa is a legit contender...
 
Obviously, there's a lot of football left and Iowa winning all 4 solves a lot off issues... granted. However, one things that concerns me a bit are quotes like this

"Not even a continuous loop of Ohio State's Craig Krenzel and Maurice Clarett winning the 2003 Fiesta Bowl would convince the nation Iowa has shot. Heck, even coach Kirk Ferentz is not sure about his squad. "I still have a hard time even picturing us in the top 10," he said on a Tuesday teleconference. The Hawkeyes might deserve a spot in the big game, but it wouldn't make many people happy." (Sporting News - Dave Curtis http://www.sportingnews.com/college...10-28/five-title-bouts-we-beg-bcs-not-produce)

Perhaps that's the advantage (if there is one) to having the week of conference championship games off. Kirk can start selling the accomplishments of the team without worrying about affecting game performance instead of the "we're not really that good" approach that gives the humans that vote in the Harris and Coaches polls reasons to say "see ... even HE doesn't think they belong there."
 
ANy one loss team that jumps an undefeated BCS conference champ for the title game would be a BCS killer. You've got to remember why the BCS was invented - to prevent two undefeated champs not having the chance to "decide it on the field."

I saw Brian Kelly of Cincy on tv yesterday, and the interviewer ask him how he'd feel if an undefeated cincy got left out for a 1 loss school. He said that that the Big East would have to reevaluate the purpose of even being a BCS conference then. The same would go for the Big Ten and more. If a 1 loss team jumps an undefeated BCS champ - No more BCS.
 
PhoenixHawk said:
ANy one loss team that jumps an undefeated BCS conference champ for the title game would be a BCS killer. You've got to remember why the BCS was invented - to prevent two undefeated champs not having the chance to "decide it on the field."

I saw Brian Kelly of Cincy on tv yesterday, and the interviewer ask him how he'd feel if an undefeated cincy got left out for a 1 loss school. He said that that the Big East would have to reevaluate the purpose of even being a BCS conference then. The same would go for the Big Ten and more. If a 1 loss team jumps an undefeated BCS champ - No more BCS.
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I agree and this is the reason USC won't jump an undefeated team that doesn't rhyme with "noise plate".
 
bec32173 said:
If you are including Arizona in the 5 ranked teams USC has beat, you kind of have to include them in Iowa's too, I mean since we beat them and all;)
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I'm glad someone else caught this.

The only way USC gets "more" credit for Arizona is if they blow them out of the water. And even then it's negligable.
 
I think that if the Hawks win at Ohio State we will jump past USC in the 'human' polls regardless of what USC does at Oregon. The voters obviously believe Iowa is winning through a combination of luck and easy schedule (Big 10 bias), but the mere name Ohio State will be enough to shoot them past any 1-loss team.

Beating Indiana and NW by double digits wouldn't hurt, either.
 
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